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Deep probabilistic time series forecasting has gained significant attention due to its superior performance in nonlinear approximation and its ability to provide valuable uncertainty quantification for decision-making tasks. However, many existing models oversimplify the problem by assuming that the error process is time-independent, thereby overlooking the serial correlation in the error process. To overcome this limitation, we propose an innovative training method that incorporates error autocorrelation to further enhance the accuracy of probabilistic forecasting. Our method involves constructing a mini-batch as a collection of $D$ consecutive time series segments for model training and explicitly learning a time-varying covariance matrix over each mini-batch that encodes the error correlation among adjacent time steps. The learned covariance matrix can be used to improve prediction accuracy and enhance uncertainty quantification. We evaluate our method on two different neural forecasting models and multiple public datasets, and the experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach in enhancing the performance of both models across a wide range of datasets, yielding notable improvements in predictive accuracy.

The manifold scattering transform is a deep feature extractor for data defined on a Riemannian manifold. It is one of the first examples of extending convolutional neural network-like operators to general manifolds. The initial work on this model focused primarily on its theoretical stability and invariance properties but did not provide methods for its numerical implementation except in the case of two-dimensional surfaces with predefined meshes. In this work, we present practical schemes, based on the theory of diffusion maps, for implementing the manifold scattering transform to datasets arising in naturalistic systems, such as single cell genetics, where the data is a high-dimensional point cloud modeled as lying on a low-dimensional manifold. We show that our methods are effective for signal classification and manifold classification tasks.

We prove that the long-run behavior of Hawkes processes is fully determined by the average number and the dispersion of child events. For subcritical processes we provide FLLNs and FCLTs under minimal conditions on the kernel of the process with the precise form of the limit theorems depending strongly on the dispersion of child events. For a critical Hawkes process with weakly dispersed child events, functional central limit theorems do not hold. Instead, we prove that the rescaled intensity processes and rescaled Hawkes processes behave like CIR-processes without mean-reversion, respectively integrated CIR-processes. We provide the rate of convergence by establishing an upper bound on the Wasserstein distance between the distributions of rescaled Hawkes process and the corresponding limit process. By contrast, critical Hawkes process with heavily dispersed child events share many properties of subcritical ones. In particular, functional limit theorems hold. However, unlike subcritical processes critical ones with heavily dispersed child events display long-range dependencies.

The manipulation of deformable objects by robotic systems presents a significant challenge due to their complex and infinite-dimensional configuration spaces. This paper introduces a novel approach to Deformable Object Manipulation (DOM) by emphasizing the identification and manipulation of Structures of Interest (SOIs) in deformable fabric bags. We propose a bimanual manipulation framework that leverages a Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based latent dynamics model to succinctly represent and predict the behavior of these SOIs. Our approach involves constructing a graph representation from partial point cloud data of the object and learning the latent dynamics model that effectively captures the essential deformations of the fabric bag within a reduced computational space. By integrating this latent dynamics model with Model Predictive Control (MPC), we empower robotic manipulators to perform precise and stable manipulation tasks focused on the SOIs. We have validated our framework through various empirical experiments demonstrating its efficacy in bimanual manipulation of fabric bags. Our contributions not only address the complexities inherent in DOM but also provide new perspectives and methodologies for enhancing robotic interactions with deformable objects by concentrating on their critical structural elements. Experimental videos can be obtained from //sites.google.com/view/bagbot.

Speech signals are inherently complex as they encompass both global acoustic characteristics and local semantic information. However, in the task of target speech extraction, certain elements of global and local semantic information in the reference speech, which are irrelevant to speaker identity, can lead to speaker confusion within the speech extraction network. To overcome this challenge, we propose a self-supervised disentangled representation learning method. Our approach tackles this issue through a two-phase process, utilizing a reference speech encoding network and a global information disentanglement network to gradually disentangle the speaker identity information from other irrelevant factors. We exclusively employ the disentangled speaker identity information to guide the speech extraction network. Moreover, we introduce the adaptive modulation Transformer to ensure that the acoustic representation of the mixed signal remains undisturbed by the speaker embeddings. This component incorporates speaker embeddings as conditional information, facilitating natural and efficient guidance for the speech extraction network. Experimental results substantiate the effectiveness of our meticulously crafted approach, showcasing a substantial reduction in the likelihood of speaker confusion.

Behemoth graphs are often fragmented and separately stored by multiple data owners as distributed subgraphs in many realistic applications. Without harming data privacy, it is natural to consider the subgraph federated learning (subgraph FL) scenario, where each local client holds a subgraph of the entire global graph, to obtain globally generalized graph mining models. To overcome the unique challenge of incomplete information propagation on local subgraphs due to missing cross-subgraph neighbors, previous works resort to the augmentation of local neighborhoods through the joint FL of missing neighbor generators and GNNs. Yet their technical designs have profound limitations regarding the utility, efficiency, and privacy goals of FL. In this work, we propose FedDEP to comprehensively tackle these challenges in subgraph FL. FedDEP consists of a series of novel technical designs: (1) Deep neighbor generation through leveraging the GNN embeddings of potential missing neighbors; (2) Efficient pseudo-FL for neighbor generation through embedding prototyping; and (3) Privacy protection through noise-less edge-local-differential-privacy. We analyze the correctness and efficiency of FedDEP, and provide theoretical guarantees on its privacy. Empirical results on four real-world datasets justify the clear benefits of proposed techniques.

This manuscript portrays optimization as a process. In many practical applications the environment is so complex that it is infeasible to lay out a comprehensive theoretical model and use classical algorithmic theory and mathematical optimization. It is necessary as well as beneficial to take a robust approach, by applying an optimization method that learns as one goes along, learning from experience as more aspects of the problem are observed. This view of optimization as a process has become prominent in varied fields and has led to some spectacular success in modeling and systems that are now part of our daily lives.

Humans perceive the world by concurrently processing and fusing high-dimensional inputs from multiple modalities such as vision and audio. Machine perception models, in stark contrast, are typically modality-specific and optimised for unimodal benchmarks, and hence late-stage fusion of final representations or predictions from each modality (`late-fusion') is still a dominant paradigm for multimodal video classification. Instead, we introduce a novel transformer based architecture that uses `fusion bottlenecks' for modality fusion at multiple layers. Compared to traditional pairwise self-attention, our model forces information between different modalities to pass through a small number of bottleneck latents, requiring the model to collate and condense the most relevant information in each modality and only share what is necessary. We find that such a strategy improves fusion performance, at the same time reducing computational cost. We conduct thorough ablation studies, and achieve state-of-the-art results on multiple audio-visual classification benchmarks including Audioset, Epic-Kitchens and VGGSound. All code and models will be released.

It is important to detect anomalous inputs when deploying machine learning systems. The use of larger and more complex inputs in deep learning magnifies the difficulty of distinguishing between anomalous and in-distribution examples. At the same time, diverse image and text data are available in enormous quantities. We propose leveraging these data to improve deep anomaly detection by training anomaly detectors against an auxiliary dataset of outliers, an approach we call Outlier Exposure (OE). This enables anomaly detectors to generalize and detect unseen anomalies. In extensive experiments on natural language processing and small- and large-scale vision tasks, we find that Outlier Exposure significantly improves detection performance. We also observe that cutting-edge generative models trained on CIFAR-10 may assign higher likelihoods to SVHN images than to CIFAR-10 images; we use OE to mitigate this issue. We also analyze the flexibility and robustness of Outlier Exposure, and identify characteristics of the auxiliary dataset that improve performance.

Image-to-image translation aims to learn the mapping between two visual domains. There are two main challenges for many applications: 1) the lack of aligned training pairs and 2) multiple possible outputs from a single input image. In this work, we present an approach based on disentangled representation for producing diverse outputs without paired training images. To achieve diversity, we propose to embed images onto two spaces: a domain-invariant content space capturing shared information across domains and a domain-specific attribute space. Our model takes the encoded content features extracted from a given input and the attribute vectors sampled from the attribute space to produce diverse outputs at test time. To handle unpaired training data, we introduce a novel cross-cycle consistency loss based on disentangled representations. Qualitative results show that our model can generate diverse and realistic images on a wide range of tasks without paired training data. For quantitative comparisons, we measure realism with user study and diversity with a perceptual distance metric. We apply the proposed model to domain adaptation and show competitive performance when compared to the state-of-the-art on the MNIST-M and the LineMod datasets.