In longitudinal studies, it is not uncommon to make multiple attempts to collect a measurement after baseline. Recording whether these attempts are successful provides useful information for the purposes of assessing missing data assumptions. This is because measurements from subjects who provide the data after numerous failed attempts may differ from those who provide the measurement after fewer attempts. Previous models for these designs were parametric and/or did not allow sensitivity analysis. For the former, there are always concerns about model misspecification and for the latter, sensitivity analysis is essential when conducting inference in the presence of missing data. Here, we propose a new approach which minimizes issues with model misspecification by using Bayesian nonparametrics for the observed data distribution. We also introduce a novel approach for identification and sensitivity analysis. We re-analyze the repeated attempts data from a clinical trial involving patients with severe mental illness and conduct simulations to better understand the properties of our approach.
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We consider the problem of online allocation subject to a long-term fairness penalty. Contrary to existing works, however, we do not assume that the decision-maker observes the protected attributes -- which is often unrealistic in practice. Instead they can purchase data that help estimate them from sources of different quality; and hence reduce the fairness penalty at some cost. We model this problem as a multi-armed bandit problem where each arm corresponds to the choice of a data source, coupled with the online allocation problem. We propose an algorithm that jointly solves both problems and show that it has a regret bounded by $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T})$. A key difficulty is that the rewards received by selecting a source are correlated by the fairness penalty, which leads to a need for randomization (despite a stochastic setting). Our algorithm takes into account contextual information available before the source selection, and can adapt to many different fairness notions. We also show that in some instances, the estimates used can be learned on the fly.
In this paper, we introduce DiversiGATE, a unified framework that consolidates diverse methodologies for LLM verification. The proposed framework comprises two main components: Diversification and Aggregation which provide a holistic perspective on existing verification approaches, such as Self-Consistency, Math Prompter and WebGPT. Furthermore, we propose a novel `SelfLearner' model that conforms to the DiversiGATE framework which can learn from its own outputs and refine its performance over time, leading to improved accuracy. To evaluate the effectiveness of SelfLearner, we conducted a rigorous series of experiments, including tests on synthetic data as well as on popular arithmetic reasoning benchmarks such as GSM8K. Our results demonstrate that our approach outperforms traditional LLMs, achieving a considerable 54.8% -> 61.8% improvement on the GSM8K benchmark.
Many multivariate data sets exhibit a form of positive dependence, which can either appear globally between all variables or only locally within particular subgroups. A popular notion of positive dependence that allows for localized positivity is positive association. In this work we introduce the notion of extremal positive association for multivariate extremes from threshold exceedances. Via a sufficient condition for extremal association, we show that extremal association generalizes extremal tree models. For H\"usler--Reiss distributions the sufficient condition permits a parametric description that we call the metric property. As the parameter of a H\"usler--Reiss distribution is a Euclidean distance matrix, the metric property relates to research in electrical network theory and Euclidean geometry. We show that the metric property can be localized with respect to a graph and study surrogate likelihood inference. This gives rise to a two-step estimation procedure for locally metrical H\"usler--Reiss graphical models. The second step allows for a simple dual problem, which is implemented via a gradient descent algorithm. Finally, we demonstrate our results on simulated and real data.
R is a language and environment for statistical computing and graphics, which provides a wide variety of statistical tools (modeling, statistical testing, time series analysis, classification problems, machine learning, ...), together with amazing graphical techniques and the great advantage that it is highly extensible. Nowadays, there is no doubt that it is the software par excellence in statistical courses for any level, for theoretical and applied subjects alike. Besides, it has become an almost essential tool for every research work that involves any kind of analysis or data visualization. Furthermore, it is one of the most employed programming languages for general purposes. The goal of this work is helping to share ideas and resources to improve teaching and/or research using the statistical software R. We will cover its benefits, show how to get started and where to locate specific resources, and will make interesting recommendations for using R, according to our experience. For the classroom we will develop a curricular and assessment infrastructure to support both dissemination and evaluation, while for research we will offer a broader approach to quantitative studies that provides an excellent support for work in science and technology.
Real-world software applications must constantly evolve to remain relevant. This evolution occurs when developing new applications or adapting existing ones to meet new requirements, make corrections, or incorporate future functionality. Traditional methods of software quality control involve software quality models and continuous code inspection tools. These measures focus on directly assessing the quality of the software. However, there is a strong correlation and causation between the quality of the development process and the resulting software product. Therefore, improving the development process indirectly improves the software product, too. To achieve this, effective learning from past processes is necessary, often embraced through post mortem organizational learning. While qualitative evaluation of large artifacts is common, smaller quantitative changes captured by application lifecycle management are often overlooked. In addition to software metrics, these smaller changes can reveal complex phenomena related to project culture and management. Leveraging these changes can help detect and address such complex issues. Software evolution was previously measured by the size of changes, but the lack of consensus on a reliable and versatile quantification method prevents its use as a dependable metric. Different size classifications fail to reliably describe the nature of evolution. While application lifecycle management data is rich, identifying which artifacts can model detrimental managerial practices remains uncertain. Approaches such as simulation modeling, discrete events simulation, or Bayesian networks have only limited ability to exploit continuous-time process models of such phenomena. Even worse, the accessibility and mechanistic insight into such gray- or black-box models are typically very low. To address these challenges, we suggest leveraging objectively [...]
Reasoning is a fundamental aspect of human intelligence that plays a crucial role in activities such as problem solving, decision making, and critical thinking. In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have made significant progress in natural language processing, and there is observation that these models may exhibit reasoning abilities when they are sufficiently large. However, it is not yet clear to what extent LLMs are capable of reasoning. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of knowledge on reasoning in LLMs, including techniques for improving and eliciting reasoning in these models, methods and benchmarks for evaluating reasoning abilities, findings and implications of previous research in this field, and suggestions on future directions. Our aim is to provide a detailed and up-to-date review of this topic and stimulate meaningful discussion and future work.
The concept of causality plays an important role in human cognition . In the past few decades, causal inference has been well developed in many fields, such as computer science, medicine, economics, and education. With the advancement of deep learning techniques, it has been increasingly used in causal inference against counterfactual data. Typically, deep causal models map the characteristics of covariates to a representation space and then design various objective optimization functions to estimate counterfactual data unbiasedly based on the different optimization methods. This paper focuses on the survey of the deep causal models, and its core contributions are as follows: 1) we provide relevant metrics under multiple treatments and continuous-dose treatment; 2) we incorporate a comprehensive overview of deep causal models from both temporal development and method classification perspectives; 3) we assist a detailed and comprehensive classification and analysis of relevant datasets and source code.
The cyber-threat landscape has evolved tremendously in recent years, with new threat variants emerging daily, and large-scale coordinated campaigns becoming more prevalent. In this study, we propose CELEST (CollaborativE LEarning for Scalable Threat detection), a federated machine learning framework for global threat detection over HTTP, which is one of the most commonly used protocols for malware dissemination and communication. CELEST leverages federated learning in order to collaboratively train a global model across multiple clients who keep their data locally, thus providing increased privacy and confidentiality assurances. Through a novel active learning component integrated with the federated learning technique, our system continuously discovers and learns the behavior of new, evolving, and globally-coordinated cyber threats. We show that CELEST is able to expose attacks that are largely invisible to individual organizations. For instance, in one challenging attack scenario with data exfiltration malware, the global model achieves a three-fold increase in Precision-Recall AUC compared to the local model. We deploy CELEST on two university networks and show that it is able to detect the malicious HTTP communication with high precision and low false positive rates. Furthermore, during its deployment, CELEST detected a set of previously unknown 42 malicious URLs and 20 malicious domains in one day, which were confirmed to be malicious by VirusTotal.
The dominating NLP paradigm of training a strong neural predictor to perform one task on a specific dataset has led to state-of-the-art performance in a variety of applications (eg. sentiment classification, span-prediction based question answering or machine translation). However, it builds upon the assumption that the data distribution is stationary, ie. that the data is sampled from a fixed distribution both at training and test time. This way of training is inconsistent with how we as humans are able to learn from and operate within a constantly changing stream of information. Moreover, it is ill-adapted to real-world use cases where the data distribution is expected to shift over the course of a model's lifetime. The first goal of this thesis is to characterize the different forms this shift can take in the context of natural language processing, and propose benchmarks and evaluation metrics to measure its effect on current deep learning architectures. We then proceed to take steps to mitigate the effect of distributional shift on NLP models. To this end, we develop methods based on parametric reformulations of the distributionally robust optimization framework. Empirically, we demonstrate that these approaches yield more robust models as demonstrated on a selection of realistic problems. In the third and final part of this thesis, we explore ways of efficiently adapting existing models to new domains or tasks. Our contribution to this topic takes inspiration from information geometry to derive a new gradient update rule which alleviate catastrophic forgetting issues during adaptation.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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