We revisit the Bayesian Context Trees (BCT) modelling framework for discrete time series, which was recently found to be very effective in numerous tasks including model selection, estimation and prediction. A novel representation of the induced posterior distribution on model space is derived in terms of a simple branching process, and several consequences of this are explored in theory and in practice. First, it is shown that the branching process representation leads to a simple variable-dimensional Monte Carlo sampler for the joint posterior distribution on models and parameters, which can efficiently produce independent samples. This sampler is found to be more efficient than earlier MCMC samplers for the same tasks. Then, the branching process representation is used to establish the asymptotic consistency of the BCT posterior, including the derivation of an almost-sure convergence rate. Finally, an extensive study is carried out on the performance of the induced Bayesian entropy estimator. Its utility is illustrated through both simulation experiments and real-world applications, where it is found to outperform several state-of-the-art methods.
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Temporal modeling is crucial for multi-frame human pose estimation. Most existing methods directly employ optical flow or deformable convolution to predict full-spectrum motion fields, which might incur numerous irrelevant cues, such as a nearby person or background. Without further efforts to excavate meaningful motion priors, their results are suboptimal, especially in complicated spatiotemporal interactions. On the other hand, the temporal difference has the ability to encode representative motion information which can potentially be valuable for pose estimation but has not been fully exploited. In this paper, we present a novel multi-frame human pose estimation framework, which employs temporal differences across frames to model dynamic contexts and engages mutual information objectively to facilitate useful motion information disentanglement. To be specific, we design a multi-stage Temporal Difference Encoder that performs incremental cascaded learning conditioned on multi-stage feature difference sequences to derive informative motion representation. We further propose a Representation Disentanglement module from the mutual information perspective, which can grasp discriminative task-relevant motion signals by explicitly defining useful and noisy constituents of the raw motion features and minimizing their mutual information. These place us to rank No.1 in the Crowd Pose Estimation in Complex Events Challenge on benchmark dataset HiEve, and achieve state-of-the-art performance on three benchmarks PoseTrack2017, PoseTrack2018, and PoseTrack21.
The generation of realistic and contextually relevant co-speech gestures is a challenging yet increasingly important task in the creation of multimodal artificial agents. Prior methods focused on learning a direct correspondence between co-speech gesture representations and produced motions, which created seemingly natural but often unconvincing gestures during human assessment. We present an approach to pre-train partial gesture sequences using a generative adversarial network with a quantization pipeline. The resulting codebook vectors serve as both input and output in our framework, forming the basis for the generation and reconstruction of gestures. By learning the mapping of a latent space representation as opposed to directly mapping it to a vector representation, this framework facilitates the generation of highly realistic and expressive gestures that closely replicate human movement and behavior, while simultaneously avoiding artifacts in the generation process. We evaluate our approach by comparing it with established methods for generating co-speech gestures as well as with existing datasets of human behavior. We also perform an ablation study to assess our findings. The results show that our approach outperforms the current state of the art by a clear margin and is partially indistinguishable from human gesturing. We make our data pipeline and the generation framework publicly available.
Partitioning a set of elements into subsets of a priori unknown sizes is essential in many applications. These subset sizes are rarely explicitly learned - be it the cluster sizes in clustering applications or the number of shared versus independent generative latent factors in weakly-supervised learning. Probability distributions over correct combinations of subset sizes are non-differentiable due to hard constraints, which prohibit gradient-based optimization. In this work, we propose the differentiable hypergeometric distribution. The hypergeometric distribution models the probability of different group sizes based on their relative importance. We introduce reparameterizable gradients to learn the importance between groups and highlight the advantage of explicitly learning the size of subsets in two typical applications: weakly-supervised learning and clustering. In both applications, we outperform previous approaches, which rely on suboptimal heuristics to model the unknown size of groups.
In this paper, we establish weak consistency and asymptotic normality of an M-estimator of the regression function for left truncated and right censored (LTRC) model, where it is assumed that the observations form a stationary alpha-mixing sequence. The result holds with unbounded objective function, and are applied to derive weak consistency and asymptotic normality of a kernel classical regression curve estimate. We also obtain a uniform weak convergence rate for the product-limit estimator of the lifetime and censored distribution under dependence, which are useful results for our study and other LTRC strong mixing framework. Some simulations are drawn to illustrate the results for finite sample.
Decision-guided perspectives on model uncertainty expand traditional statistical thinking about managing, comparing and combining inferences from sets of models. Bayesian predictive decision synthesis (BPDS) advances conceptual and theoretical foundations, and defines new methodology that explicitly integrates decision-analytic outcomes into the evaluation, comparison and potential combination of candidate models. BPDS extends recent theoretical and practical advances based on both Bayesian predictive synthesis and empirical goal-focused model uncertainty analysis. This is enabled by the development of a novel subjective Bayesian perspective on model weighting in predictive decision settings. Illustrations come from applied contexts including optimal design for regression prediction and sequential time series forecasting for financial portfolio decisions.
Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest.
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
Recent advances in maximizing mutual information (MI) between the source and target have demonstrated its effectiveness in text generation. However, previous works paid little attention to modeling the backward network of MI (i.e., dependency from the target to the source), which is crucial to the tightness of the variational information maximization lower bound. In this paper, we propose Adversarial Mutual Information (AMI): a text generation framework which is formed as a novel saddle point (min-max) optimization aiming to identify joint interactions between the source and target. Within this framework, the forward and backward networks are able to iteratively promote or demote each other's generated instances by comparing the real and synthetic data distributions. We also develop a latent noise sampling strategy that leverages random variations at the high-level semantic space to enhance the long term dependency in the generation process. Extensive experiments based on different text generation tasks demonstrate that the proposed AMI framework can significantly outperform several strong baselines, and we also show that AMI has potential to lead to a tighter lower bound of maximum mutual information for the variational information maximization problem.
This paper focuses on two fundamental tasks of graph analysis: community detection and node representation learning, which capture the global and local structures of graphs, respectively. In the current literature, these two tasks are usually independently studied while they are actually highly correlated. We propose a probabilistic generative model called vGraph to learn community membership and node representation collaboratively. Specifically, we assume that each node can be represented as a mixture of communities, and each community is defined as a multinomial distribution over nodes. Both the mixing coefficients and the community distribution are parameterized by the low-dimensional representations of the nodes and communities. We designed an effective variational inference algorithm which regularizes the community membership of neighboring nodes to be similar in the latent space. Experimental results on multiple real-world graphs show that vGraph is very effective in both community detection and node representation learning, outperforming many competitive baselines in both tasks. We show that the framework of vGraph is quite flexible and can be easily extended to detect hierarchical communities.
We propose a Bayesian convolutional neural network built upon Bayes by Backprop and elaborate how this known method can serve as the fundamental construct of our novel, reliable variational inference method for convolutional neural networks. First, we show how Bayes by Backprop can be applied to convolutional layers where weights in filters have probability distributions instead of point-estimates; and second, how our proposed framework leads with various network architectures to performances comparable to convolutional neural networks with point-estimates weights. In the past, Bayes by Backprop has been successfully utilised in feedforward and recurrent neural networks, but not in convolutional ones. This work symbolises the extension of the group of Bayesian neural networks which encompasses all three aforementioned types of network architectures now.
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