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We review some recent development in the theory of spatial extremes related to Pareto Processes and modeling of threshold exceedances. We provide theoretical background, methodology for modeling, simulation and inference as well as an illustration to wave height modelling. This preprint is an author version of a chapter to appear in a collaborative book.

We discuss a connection between a generative model, called the diffusion model, and nonequilibrium thermodynamics for the Fokker-Planck equation, called stochastic thermodynamics. Based on the techniques of stochastic thermodynamics, we derive the speed-accuracy trade-off for the diffusion models, which is a trade-off relationship between the speed and accuracy of data generation in diffusion models. Our result implies that the entropy production rate in the forward process affects the errors in data generation. From a stochastic thermodynamic perspective, our results provide quantitative insight into how best to generate data in diffusion models. The optimal learning protocol is introduced by the conservative force in stochastic thermodynamics and the geodesic of space by the 2-Wasserstein distance in optimal transport theory. We numerically illustrate the validity of the speed-accuracy trade-off for the diffusion models with different noise schedules such as the cosine schedule, the conditional optimal transport, and the optimal transport.

We investigate the set of invariant idempotent probabilities for countable idempotent iterated function systems (IFS) defined in compact metric spaces. We demonstrate that, with constant weights, there exists a unique invariant idempotent probability. Utilizing Secelean's approach to countable IFSs, we introduce partially finite idempotent IFSs and prove that the sequence of invariant idempotent measures for these systems converges to the invariant measure of the original countable IFS. We then apply these results to approximate such measures with discrete systems, producing, in the one-dimensional case, data series whose Higuchi fractal dimension can be calculated. Finally, we provide numerical approximations for two-dimensional cases and discuss the application of generalized Higuchi dimensions in these scenarios.

We investigate a Tikhonov regularization scheme specifically tailored for shallow neural networks within the context of solving a classic inverse problem: approximating an unknown function and its derivatives within a unit cubic domain based on noisy measurements. The proposed Tikhonov regularization scheme incorporates a penalty term that takes three distinct yet intricately related network (semi)norms: the extended Barron norm, the variation norm, and the Radon-BV seminorm. These choices of the penalty term are contingent upon the specific architecture of the neural network being utilized. We establish the connection between various network norms and particularly trace the dependence of the dimensionality index, aiming to deepen our understanding of how these norms interplay with each other. We revisit the universality of function approximation through various norms, establish rigorous error-bound analysis for the Tikhonov regularization scheme, and explicitly elucidate the dependency of the dimensionality index, providing a clearer understanding of how the dimensionality affects the approximation performance and how one designs a neural network with diverse approximating tasks.

Linear causal disentanglement is a recent method in causal representation learning to describe a collection of observed variables via latent variables with causal dependencies between them. It can be viewed as a generalization of both independent component analysis and linear structural equation models. We study the identifiability of linear causal disentanglement, assuming access to data under multiple contexts, each given by an intervention on a latent variable. We show that one perfect intervention on each latent variable is sufficient and in the worst case necessary to recover parameters under perfect interventions, generalizing previous work to allow more latent than observed variables. We give a constructive proof that computes parameters via a coupled tensor decomposition. For soft interventions, we find the equivalence class of latent graphs and parameters that are consistent with observed data, via the study of a system of polynomial equations. Our results hold assuming the existence of non-zero higher-order cumulants, which implies non-Gaussianity of variables.

We discuss a connection between a generative model, called the diffusion model, and nonequilibrium thermodynamics for the Fokker-Planck equation, called stochastic thermodynamics. Based on the techniques of stochastic thermodynamics, we derive the speed-accuracy trade-off for the diffusion models, which is a trade-off relationship between the speed and accuracy of data generation in diffusion models. Our result implies that the entropy production rate in the forward process affects the errors in data generation. From a stochastic thermodynamic perspective, our results provide quantitative insight into how best to generate data in diffusion models. The optimal learning protocol is introduced by the conservative force in stochastic thermodynamics and the geodesic of space by the 2-Wasserstein distance in optimal transport theory. We numerically illustrate the validity of the speed-accuracy trade-off for the diffusion models with different noise schedules such as the cosine schedule, the conditional optimal transport, and the optimal transport.

This research presents a comprehensive approach to predicting the duration of traffic incidents and classifying them as short-term or long-term across the Sydney Metropolitan Area. Leveraging a dataset that encompasses detailed records of traffic incidents, road network characteristics, and socio-economic indicators, we train and evaluate a variety of advanced machine learning models including Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT), Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost. The models are assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for regression tasks and F1 score for classification tasks. Our experimental results demonstrate that XGBoost and LightGBM outperform conventional models with XGBoost achieving the lowest RMSE of 33.7 for predicting incident duration and highest classification F1 score of 0.62 for a 30-minute duration threshold. For classification, the 30-minute threshold balances performance with 70.84% short-term duration classification accuracy and 62.72% long-term duration classification accuracy. Feature importance analysis, employing both tree split counts and SHAP values, identifies the number of affected lanes, traffic volume, and types of primary and secondary vehicles as the most influential features. The proposed methodology not only achieves high predictive accuracy but also provides stakeholders with vital insights into factors contributing to incident durations. These insights enable more informed decision-making for traffic management and response strategies. The code is available by the link: //github.com/Future-Mobility-Lab/SydneyIncidents

This dissertation studies a fundamental open challenge in deep learning theory: why do deep networks generalize well even while being overparameterized, unregularized and fitting the training data to zero error? In the first part of the thesis, we will empirically study how training deep networks via stochastic gradient descent implicitly controls the networks' capacity. Subsequently, to show how this leads to better generalization, we will derive {\em data-dependent} {\em uniform-convergence-based} generalization bounds with improved dependencies on the parameter count. Uniform convergence has in fact been the most widely used tool in deep learning literature, thanks to its simplicity and generality. Given its popularity, in this thesis, we will also take a step back to identify the fundamental limits of uniform convergence as a tool to explain generalization. In particular, we will show that in some example overparameterized settings, {\em any} uniform convergence bound will provide only a vacuous generalization bound. With this realization in mind, in the last part of the thesis, we will change course and introduce an {\em empirical} technique to estimate generalization using unlabeled data. Our technique does not rely on any notion of uniform-convergece-based complexity and is remarkably precise. We will theoretically show why our technique enjoys such precision. We will conclude by discussing how future work could explore novel ways to incorporate distributional assumptions in generalization bounds (such as in the form of unlabeled data) and explore other tools to derive bounds, perhaps by modifying uniform convergence or by developing completely new tools altogether.

Artificial neural networks thrive in solving the classification problem for a particular rigid task, acquiring knowledge through generalized learning behaviour from a distinct training phase. The resulting network resembles a static entity of knowledge, with endeavours to extend this knowledge without targeting the original task resulting in a catastrophic forgetting. Continual learning shifts this paradigm towards networks that can continually accumulate knowledge over different tasks without the need to retrain from scratch. We focus on task incremental classification, where tasks arrive sequentially and are delineated by clear boundaries. Our main contributions concern 1) a taxonomy and extensive overview of the state-of-the-art, 2) a novel framework to continually determine the stability-plasticity trade-off of the continual learner, 3) a comprehensive experimental comparison of 11 state-of-the-art continual learning methods and 4 baselines. We empirically scrutinize method strengths and weaknesses on three benchmarks, considering Tiny Imagenet and large-scale unbalanced iNaturalist and a sequence of recognition datasets. We study the influence of model capacity, weight decay and dropout regularization, and the order in which the tasks are presented, and qualitatively compare methods in terms of required memory, computation time, and storage.