Modern mainstream financial theory is underpinned by the efficient market hypothesis, which posits the rapid incorporation of relevant information into asset pricing. Limited prior studies in the operational research literature have investigated the use of tests designed for random number generators to check for these informational efficiencies. Treating binary daily returns as a hardware random number generator analogue, tests of overlapping permutations have indicated that these time series feature idiosyncratic recurrent patterns. Contrary to prior studies, we split our analysis into two streams at the annual and company level, and investigate longer-term efficiency over a larger time frame for Nasdaq-listed public companies to diminish the effects of trading noise and allow the market to realistically digest new information. Our results demonstrate that information efficiency varies across different years and reflects large-scale market impacts such as financial crises. We also show the proximity to results of a logistic map comparison, discuss the distinction between theoretical and practical market efficiency, and find that the statistical qualification of stock-separated returns in support of the efficient market hypothesis is dependent on the driving factor of small inefficient subsets that skew market assessments.
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We investigate trade-offs in static and dynamic evaluation of hierarchical queries with arbitrary free variables. In the static setting, the trade-off is between the time to partially compute the query result and the delay needed to enumerate its tuples. In the dynamic setting, we additionally consider the time needed to update the query result under single-tuple inserts or deletes to the database. Our approach observes the degree of values in the database and uses different computation and maintenance strategies for high-degree (heavy) and low-degree (light) values. For the latter it partially computes the result, while for the former it computes enough information to allow for on-the-fly enumeration. We define the preprocessing time, the update time, and the enumeration delay as functions of the light/heavy threshold. By appropriately choosing this threshold, our approach recovers a number of prior results when restricted to hierarchical queries. We show that for a restricted class of hierarchical queries, our approach achieves worst-case optimal update time and enumeration delay conditioned on the Online Matrix-Vector Multiplication Conjecture.
Randomized trials balance all covariates on average and provide the gold standard for estimating treatment effects. Chance imbalances nevertheless exist more or less in realized treatment allocations and intrigue an important question: what should we do in case the treatment groups differ with respect to some important baseline characteristics? A common strategy is to conduct a {\it preliminary test} of the balance of baseline covariates after randomization, and invoke covariate adjustment for subsequent inference if and only if the realized allocation fails some prespecified criterion. Although such practice is intuitive and popular among practitioners, the existing literature has so far only evaluated its properties under strong parametric model assumptions in theory and simulation, yielding results of limited generality. To fill this gap, we examine two strategies for conducting preliminary test-based covariate adjustment by regression, and evaluate the validity and efficiency of the resulting inferences from the randomization-based perspective. As it turns out, the preliminary-test estimator based on the analysis of covariance can be even less efficient than the unadjusted difference in means, and risks anticonservative confidence intervals based on normal approximation even with the robust standard error. The preliminary-test estimator based on the fully interacted specification is on the other hand less efficient than its counterpart under the {\it always-adjust} strategy, and yields overconservative confidence intervals based on normal approximation. Based on theory and simulation, we echo the existing literature and do not recommend the preliminary-test procedure for covariate adjustment in randomized trials.
Software engineering is a domain characterized by intricate decision-making processes, often relying on nuanced intuition and consultation. Recent advancements in deep learning have started to revolutionize software engineering practices through elaborate designs implemented at various stages of software development. In this paper, we present an innovative paradigm that leverages large language models (LLMs) throughout the entire software development process, streamlining and unifying key processes through natural language communication, thereby eliminating the need for specialized models at each phase. At the core of this paradigm lies ChatDev, a virtual chat-powered software development company that mirrors the established waterfall model, meticulously dividing the development process into four distinct chronological stages: designing, coding, testing, and documenting. Each stage engages a team of agents, such as programmers, code reviewers, and test engineers, fostering collaborative dialogue and facilitating a seamless workflow. The chat chain acts as a facilitator, breaking down each stage into atomic subtasks. This enables dual roles, allowing for proposing and validating solutions through context-aware communication, leading to efficient resolution of specific subtasks. The instrumental analysis of ChatDev highlights its remarkable efficacy in software generation, enabling the completion of the entire software development process in under seven minutes at a cost of less than one dollar. It not only identifies and alleviates potential vulnerabilities but also rectifies potential hallucinations while maintaining commendable efficiency and cost-effectiveness. The potential of ChatDev unveils fresh possibilities for integrating LLMs into the realm of software development.
In this work, we propose a communication-efficient hierarchical federated learning algorithm for distributed setups including core servers and multiple edge servers with clusters of devices. Assuming different learning tasks, clusters with a same task collaborate. To implement the algorithm over wireless links, we propose a scalable clustered over-the-air aggregation scheme for the uplink with a bandwidth-limited broadcast scheme for the downlink that requires only a single resource block for each algorithm iteration, independent of the number of edge servers and devices. This setup is faced with interference of devices in the uplink and interference of edge servers in the downlink that are to be modeled rigorously. We first develop a spatial model for the setup by modeling devices as a Poisson cluster process over the edge servers and quantify uplink and downlink error terms due to the interference. Accordingly, we present a comprehensive mathematical approach to derive the convergence bound for the proposed algorithm including any number of collaborating clusters and provide special cases and design remarks. Finally, we show that despite the interference and data heterogeneity, the proposed algorithm not only achieves high learning accuracy for a variety of parameters but also significantly outperforms the conventional hierarchical learning algorithm.
Two widely considered decentralized learning algorithms are Gossip and random walk-based learning. Gossip algorithms (both synchronous and asynchronous versions) suffer from high communication cost, while random-walk based learning experiences increased convergence time. In this paper, we design a fast and communication-efficient asynchronous decentralized learning mechanism DIGEST by taking advantage of both Gossip and random-walk ideas, and focusing on stochastic gradient descent (SGD). DIGEST is an asynchronous decentralized algorithm building on local-SGD algorithms, which are originally designed for communication efficient centralized learning. We design both single-stream and multi-stream DIGEST, where the communication overhead may increase when the number of streams increases, and there is a convergence and communication overhead trade-off which can be leveraged. We analyze the convergence of single- and multi-stream DIGEST, and prove that both algorithms approach to the optimal solution asymptotically for both iid and non-iid data distributions. We evaluate the performance of single- and multi-stream DIGEST for logistic regression and a deep neural network ResNet20. The simulation results confirm that multi-stream DIGEST has nice convergence properties; i.e., its convergence time is better than or comparable to the baselines in iid setting, and outperforms the baselines in non-iid setting.
We study a fair resource sharing problem, where a set of resources are to be shared among a group of agents. Each agent demands one resource and each resource can serve a limited number of agents. An agent cares about what resource they get as well as the externalities imposed by their mates, who share the same resource with them. Clearly, the strong notion of envy-freeness, where no agent envies another for their resource or mates, cannot always be achieved and we show that even deciding the existence of such a strongly envy-free assignment is an intractable problem. Hence, a more interesting question is whether (and in what situations) a relaxed notion of envy-freeness, the Pareto envy-freeness, can be achieved. Under this relaxed notion, an agent envies another only when they envy both the resource and the mates of the other agent. In particular, we are interested in a dorm assignment problem, where students are to be assigned to dorms with the same capacity and they have dichotomous preference over their dormmates. We show that when the capacity of each dorm is 2, a Pareto envy-free assignment always exists and we present a polynomial-time algorithm to compute such an assignment. Nevertheless, the result breaks immediately when the capacity increases to 3, in which case even Pareto envy-freeness cannot be guaranteed. In addition to the existential results, we also investigate the utility guarantees of (Pareto) envy-free assignments in our model.
The proliferation of automated data collection schemes and the advances in sensorics are increasing the amount of data we are able to monitor in real-time. However, given the high annotation costs and the time required by quality inspections, data is often available in an unlabeled form. This is fostering the use of active learning for the development of soft sensors and predictive models. In production, instead of performing random inspections to obtain product information, labels are collected by evaluating the information content of the unlabeled data. Several query strategy frameworks for regression have been proposed in the literature but most of the focus has been dedicated to the static pool-based scenario. In this work, we propose a new strategy for the stream-based scenario, where instances are sequentially offered to the learner, which must instantaneously decide whether to perform the quality check to obtain the label or discard the instance. The approach is inspired by the optimal experimental design theory and the iterative aspect of the decision-making process is tackled by setting a threshold on the informativeness of the unlabeled data points. The proposed approach is evaluated using numerical simulations and the Tennessee Eastman Process simulator. The results confirm that selecting the examples suggested by the proposed algorithm allows for a faster reduction in the prediction error.
In many industrial applications, obtaining labeled observations is not straightforward as it often requires the intervention of human experts or the use of expensive testing equipment. In these circumstances, active learning can be highly beneficial in suggesting the most informative data points to be used when fitting a model. Reducing the number of observations needed for model development alleviates both the computational burden required for training and the operational expenses related to labeling. Online active learning, in particular, is useful in high-volume production processes where the decision about the acquisition of the label for a data point needs to be taken within an extremely short time frame. However, despite the recent efforts to develop online active learning strategies, the behavior of these methods in the presence of outliers has not been thoroughly examined. In this work, we investigate the performance of online active linear regression in contaminated data streams. Our study shows that the currently available query strategies are prone to sample outliers, whose inclusion in the training set eventually degrades the predictive performance of the models. To address this issue, we propose a solution that bounds the search area of a conditional D-optimal algorithm and uses a robust estimator. Our approach strikes a balance between exploring unseen regions of the input space and protecting against outliers. Through numerical simulations, we show that the proposed method is effective in improving the performance of online active learning in the presence of outliers, thus expanding the potential applications of this powerful tool.
Superdirective array may achieve an array gain proportional to the square of the number of antennas $M^2$. In the early studies of superdirectivity, little research has been done from wireless communication point of view. To leverage superdirectivity for enhancing the spectral efficiency, this paper investigates multi-user communication systems with superdirective arrays. We first propose a field-coupling-aware (FCA) multi-user channel estimation method, which takes into account the antenna coupling effects. Aiming to maximize the power gain of the target user, we propose multi-user multipath superdirective precoding (SP) as an extension of our prior work on coupling-based superdirective beamforming. Furthermore, to reduce the inter-user interference, we propose interference-nulling superdirective precoding (INSP) as the optimal solution to maximize user power gains while eliminating interference. Then, by taking the ohmic loss into consideration, we further propose a regularized interference-nulling superdirective precoding (RINSP) method. Finally, we discuss the well-known narrow directivity bandwidth issue, and find that it is not a fundamental problem of superdirective arrays in multi-carrier communication systems. Simulation results show our proposed methods outperform the state-of-the-art methods significantly. Interestingly, in the multi-user scenario, an 18-antenna superdirective array can achieve up to a 9-fold increase of spectral efficiency compared to traditional multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO), while simultaneously reducing the array aperture by half.
With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.
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