Precision medicine seeks to discover an optimal personalized treatment plan and thereby provide informed and principled decision support, based on the characteristics of individual patients. With recent advancements in medical imaging, it is crucial to incorporate patient-specific imaging features in the study of individualized treatment regimes. We propose a novel, data-driven method to construct interpretable image features which can be incorporated, along with other features, to guide optimal treatment regimes. The proposed method treats imaging information as a realization of a stochastic process, and employs smoothing techniques in estimation. We show that the proposed estimators are consistent under mild conditions. The proposed method is applied to a dataset provided by the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.
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There has been a growing interest in covariate adjustment in the analysis of randomized controlled trials in past years. For instance, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently issued guidance that emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between conditional and marginal treatment effects. Although these effects coincide in linear models, this is not typically the case in other settings, and this distinction is often overlooked in clinical trial practice. Considering these developments, this paper provides a review of when and how to utilize covariate adjustment to enhance precision in randomized controlled trials. We describe the differences between conditional and marginal estimands and stress the necessity of aligning statistical analysis methods with the chosen estimand. Additionally, we highlight the potential misalignment of current practices in estimating marginal treatment effects. Instead, we advocate for the utilization of standardization, which can improve efficiency by leveraging the information contained in baseline covariates while remaining robust to model misspecification. Finally, we present practical considerations that have arisen in our respective consultations to further clarify the advantages and limitations of covariate adjustment.
Many learning tasks require observing a sequence of images and making a decision. In a transportation problem of designing and planning for shipping boxes between nodes, we show how to treat the network of nodes and the flows between them as images. These images have useful structural information that can be statistically summarized. Using image compression techniques, we reduce an image down to a set of numbers that contain interpretable geographic information that we call geographic signatures. Using geographic signatures, we learn network structure that can be utilized to recommend future network connectivity. We develop a Bayesian reinforcement algorithm that takes advantage of statistically summarized network information as priors and user-decisions to reinforce an agent's probabilistic decision. Additionally, we show how reinforcement learning can be used with compression directly without interpretation in simple tasks.
Neural networks are notorious for being overconfident predictors, posing a significant challenge to their safe deployment in real-world applications. While feature normalization has garnered considerable attention within the deep learning literature, current train-time regularization methods for Out-of-Distribution(OOD) detection are yet to fully exploit this potential. Indeed, the naive incorporation of feature normalization within neural networks does not guarantee substantial improvement in OOD detection performance. In this work, we introduce T2FNorm, a novel approach to transforming features to hyperspherical space during training, while employing non-transformed space for OOD-scoring purposes. This method yields a surprising enhancement in OOD detection capabilities without compromising model accuracy in in-distribution(ID). Our investigation demonstrates that the proposed technique substantially diminishes the norm of the features of all samples, more so in the case of out-of-distribution samples, thereby addressing the prevalent concern of overconfidence in neural networks. The proposed method also significantly improves various post-hoc OOD detection methods.
In this work, we render in real-time glittery materials caused by discrete flakes on the surface. To achieve this, one has to count the number of flakes reflecting the light towards the camera within every texel covered by a given pixel footprint. To do so, we derive a counting method for arbitrary footprints that, unlike previous work, outputs the correct statistics. We combine this counting method with an anisotropic parameterization of the texture space that reduces the number of texels falling under a pixel footprint. This allows our method to run with both stable performance and 1.5X to 5X faster than the state-of-the-art.
Negative binomial related distributions have been widely used in practice. The calculation of the corresponding Fisher information matrices involves the expectation of trigamma function values which can only be calculated numerically and approximately. In this paper, we propose a trigamma-free approach to approximate the expectations involving the trigamma function, along with theoretical upper bounds for approximation errors. We show by numerical studies that our approach is highly efficient and much more accurate than previous methods. We also apply our approach to compute the Fisher information matrices of zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) and beta negative binomial (ZIBNB) probabilistic models, as well as ZIBNB regression models.
Learning features from data is one of the defining characteristics of deep learning, but our theoretical understanding of the role features play in deep learning is still rudimentary. To address this gap, we introduce a new tool, the interaction tensor, for empirically analyzing the interaction between data and model through features. With the interaction tensor, we make several key observations about how features are distributed in data and how models with different random seeds learn different features. Based on these observations, we propose a conceptual framework for feature learning. Under this framework, the expected accuracy for a single hypothesis and agreement for a pair of hypotheses can both be derived in closed-form. We demonstrate that the proposed framework can explain empirically observed phenomena, including the recently discovered Generalization Disagreement Equality (GDE) that allows for estimating the generalization error with only unlabeled data. Further, our theory also provides explicit construction of natural data distributions that break the GDE. Thus, we believe this work provides valuable new insight into our understanding of feature learning.
We propose a novel Bayesian inference framework for distributed differentially private linear regression. We consider a distributed setting where multiple parties hold parts of the data and share certain summary statistics of their portions in privacy-preserving noise. We develop a novel generative statistical model for privately shared statistics, which exploits a useful distributional relation between the summary statistics of linear regression. Bayesian estimation of the regression coefficients is conducted mainly using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, while we also provide a fast version to perform Bayesian estimation in one iteration. The proposed methods have computational advantages over their competitors. We provide numerical results on both real and simulated data, which demonstrate that the proposed algorithms provide well-rounded estimation and prediction.
Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative -- depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.
Simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) is the task of building a map representation of an unknown environment while it at the same time is used for positioning. A probabilistic interpretation of the SLAM task allows for incorporating prior knowledge and for operation under uncertainty. Contrary to the common practice of computing point estimates of the system states, we capture the full posterior density through approximate Bayesian inference. This dynamic learning task falls under state estimation, where the state-of-the-art is in sequential Monte Carlo methods that tackle the forward filtering problem. In this paper, we introduce a framework for probabilistic SLAM using particle smoothing that does not only incorporate observed data in current state estimates, but it also back-tracks the updated knowledge to correct for past drift and ambiguities in both the map and in the states. Our solution can efficiently handle both dense and sparse map representations by Rao-Blackwellization of conditionally linear and conditionally linearized models. We show through simulations and real-world experiments how the principles apply to radio (BLE/Wi-Fi), magnetic field, and visual SLAM. The proposed solution is general, efficient, and works well under confounding noise.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.
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