Component-based development is one of the core principles behind modern software engineering practices. Understanding of causal relationships between components of a software system can yield significant benefits to developers. Yet modern software design approaches make it difficult to track and discover such relationships at system scale, which leads to growing intellectual debt. In this paper we consider an alternative approach to software design, flow-based programming (FBP), and draw the attention of the community to the connection between dataflow graphs produced by FBP and structural causal models. With expository examples we show how this connection can be leveraged to improve day-to-day tasks in software projects, including fault localisation, business analysis and experimentation.
In combinatorial causal bandits (CCB), the learning agent chooses a subset of variables in each round to intervene and collects feedback from the observed variables to minimize expected regret or sample complexity. Previous works study this problem in both general causal models and binary generalized linear models (BGLMs). However, all of them require prior knowledge of causal graph structure. This paper studies the CCB problem without the graph structure on binary general causal models and BGLMs. We first provide an exponential lower bound of cumulative regrets for the CCB problem on general causal models. To overcome the exponentially large space of parameters, we then consider the CCB problem on BGLMs. We design a regret minimization algorithm for BGLMs even without the graph skeleton and show that it still achieves $O(\sqrt{T}\ln T)$ expected regret. This asymptotic regret is the same as the state-of-art algorithms relying on the graph structure. Moreover, we sacrifice the regret to $O(T^{\frac{2}{3}}\ln T)$ to remove the weight gap covered by the asymptotic notation. At last, we give some discussions and algorithms for pure exploration of the CCB problem without the graph structure.
International maritime crime is becoming increasingly sophisticated, often associated with wider criminal networks. Detecting maritime threats by means of fusing data purely related to physical movement (i.e., those generated by physical sensors, or hard data) is not sufficient. This has led to research and development efforts aimed at combining hard data with other types of data (especially human-generated or soft data). Existing work often assumes that input soft data is available in a structured format, or is focused on extracting certain relevant entities or concepts to accompany or annotate hard data. Much less attention has been given to extracting the rich knowledge about the situations of interest implicitly embedded in the large amount of soft data existing in unstructured formats (such as intelligence reports and news articles). In order to exploit the potentially useful and rich information from such sources, it is necessary to extract not only the relevant entities and concepts but also their semantic relations, together with the uncertainty associated with the extracted knowledge (i.e., in the form of probabilistic knowledge graphs). This will increase the accuracy of and confidence in, the extracted knowledge and facilitate subsequent reasoning and learning. To this end, we propose Maritime DeepDive, an initial prototype for the automated construction of probabilistic knowledge graphs from natural language data for the maritime domain. In this paper, we report on the current implementation of Maritime DeepDive, together with preliminary results on extracting probabilistic events from maritime piracy incidents. This pipeline was evaluated on a manually crafted gold standard, yielding promising results.
Knowledge graph embedding (KGE) is a increasingly popular technique that aims to represent entities and relations of knowledge graphs into low-dimensional semantic spaces for a wide spectrum of applications such as link prediction, knowledge reasoning and knowledge completion. In this paper, we provide a systematic review of existing KGE techniques based on representation spaces. Particularly, we build a fine-grained classification to categorise the models based on three mathematical perspectives of the representation spaces: (1) Algebraic perspective, (2) Geometric perspective, and (3) Analytical perspective. We introduce the rigorous definitions of fundamental mathematical spaces before diving into KGE models and their mathematical properties. We further discuss different KGE methods over the three categories, as well as summarise how spatial advantages work over different embedding needs. By collating the experimental results from downstream tasks, we also explore the advantages of mathematical space in different scenarios and the reasons behind them. We further state some promising research directions from a representation space perspective, with which we hope to inspire researchers to design their KGE models as well as their related applications with more consideration of their mathematical space properties.
Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest.
The concept of causality plays an important role in human cognition . In the past few decades, causal inference has been well developed in many fields, such as computer science, medicine, economics, and education. With the advancement of deep learning techniques, it has been increasingly used in causal inference against counterfactual data. Typically, deep causal models map the characteristics of covariates to a representation space and then design various objective optimization functions to estimate counterfactual data unbiasedly based on the different optimization methods. This paper focuses on the survey of the deep causal models, and its core contributions are as follows: 1) we provide relevant metrics under multiple treatments and continuous-dose treatment; 2) we incorporate a comprehensive overview of deep causal models from both temporal development and method classification perspectives; 3) we assist a detailed and comprehensive classification and analysis of relevant datasets and source code.
Many scientific problems require to process data in the form of geometric graphs. Unlike generic graph data, geometric graphs exhibit symmetries of translations, rotations, and/or reflections. Researchers have leveraged such inductive bias and developed geometrically equivariant Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to better characterize the geometry and topology of geometric graphs. Despite fruitful achievements, it still lacks a survey to depict how equivariant GNNs are progressed, which in turn hinders the further development of equivariant GNNs. To this end, based on the necessary but concise mathematical preliminaries, we analyze and classify existing methods into three groups regarding how the message passing and aggregation in GNNs are represented. We also summarize the benchmarks as well as the related datasets to facilitate later researches for methodology development and experimental evaluation. The prospect for future potential directions is also provided.
In the last decade, many deep learning models have been well trained and made a great success in various fields of machine intelligence, especially for computer vision and natural language processing. To better leverage the potential of these well-trained models in intra-domain or cross-domain transfer learning situations, knowledge distillation (KD) and domain adaptation (DA) are proposed and become research highlights. They both aim to transfer useful information from a well-trained model with original training data. However, the original data is not always available in many cases due to privacy, copyright or confidentiality. Recently, the data-free knowledge transfer paradigm has attracted appealing attention as it deals with distilling valuable knowledge from well-trained models without requiring to access to the training data. In particular, it mainly consists of the data-free knowledge distillation (DFKD) and source data-free domain adaptation (SFDA). On the one hand, DFKD aims to transfer the intra-domain knowledge of original data from a cumbersome teacher network to a compact student network for model compression and efficient inference. On the other hand, the goal of SFDA is to reuse the cross-domain knowledge stored in a well-trained source model and adapt it to a target domain. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey on data-free knowledge transfer from the perspectives of knowledge distillation and unsupervised domain adaptation, to help readers have a better understanding of the current research status and ideas. Applications and challenges of the two areas are briefly reviewed, respectively. Furthermore, we provide some insights to the subject of future research.
Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially observable, thus causal inference tries to leverage any exposed information. Graph neural networks (GNN) as universal approximators on structured input pose a viable candidate for causal learning, suggesting a tighter integration with SCM. To this effect we present a theoretical analysis from first principles that establishes a novel connection between GNN and SCM while providing an extended view on general neural-causal models. We then establish a new model class for GNN-based causal inference that is necessary and sufficient for causal effect identification. Our empirical illustration on simulations and standard benchmarks validate our theoretical proofs.
Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.
The era of big data provides researchers with convenient access to copious data. However, people often have little knowledge about it. The increasing prevalence of big data is challenging the traditional methods of learning causality because they are developed for the cases with limited amount of data and solid prior causal knowledge. This survey aims to close the gap between big data and learning causality with a comprehensive and structured review of traditional and frontier methods and a discussion about some open problems of learning causality. We begin with preliminaries of learning causality. Then we categorize and revisit methods of learning causality for the typical problems and data types. After that, we discuss the connections between learning causality and machine learning. At the end, some open problems are presented to show the great potential of learning causality with data.