Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are frequently used to analyze time series data. Despite the popularity of these models, algorithms for fitting ARMA models have weaknesses that are not well known. We provide a summary of parameter estimation via maximum likelihood and discuss common pitfalls that may lead to sub-optimal parameter estimates. We propose a random restart algorithm for parameter estimation that frequently yields higher likelihoods than traditional maximum likelihood estimation procedures. We then investigate the parameter uncertainty of maximum likelihood estimates, and propose the use of profile confidence intervals as a superior alternative to intervals derived from the Fisher's information matrix. Through a series of simulation studies, we demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed algorithm and the improved nominal coverage of profile confidence intervals compared to the normal approximation based on Fisher's Information.
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Text summarization is the process of condensing a piece of text to fewer sentences, while still preserving its content. Chat transcript, in this context, is a textual copy of a digital or online conversation between a customer (caller) and agent(s). This paper presents an indigenously (locally) developed hybrid method that first combines extractive and abstractive summarization techniques in compressing ill-punctuated or un-punctuated chat transcripts to produce more readable punctuated summaries and then optimizes the overall quality of summarization through reinforcement learning. Extensive testing, evaluations, comparisons, and validation have demonstrated the efficacy of this approach for large-scale deployment of chat transcript summarization, in the absence of manually generated reference (annotated) summaries.
Recent years have witnessed remarkable advances in artificial intelligence generated content(AIGC), with diverse input modalities, e.g., text, image, video, audio and 3D. The 3D is the most close visual modality to real-world 3D environment and carries enormous knowledge. The 3D content generation shows both academic and practical values while also presenting formidable technical challenges. This review aims to consolidate developments within the burgeoning domain of 3D content generation. Specifically, a new taxonomy is proposed that categorizes existing approaches into three types: 3D native generative methods, 2D prior-based 3D generative methods, and hybrid 3D generative methods. The survey covers approximately 60 papers spanning the major techniques. Besides, we discuss limitations of current 3D content generation techniques, and point out open challenges as well as promising directions for future work. Accompanied with this survey, we have established a project website where the resources on 3D content generation research are provided. The project page is available at //github.com/hitcslj/Awesome-AIGC-3D.
Camera localization methods based on retrieval, local feature matching, and 3D structure-based pose estimation are accurate but require high storage, are slow, and are not privacy-preserving. A method based on scene landmark detection (SLD) was recently proposed to address these limitations. It involves training a convolutional neural network (CNN) to detect a few predetermined, salient, scene-specific 3D points or landmarks and computing camera pose from the associated 2D-3D correspondences. Although SLD outperformed existing learning-based approaches, it was notably less accurate than 3D structure-based methods. In this paper, we show that the accuracy gap was due to insufficient model capacity and noisy labels during training. To mitigate the capacity issue, we propose to split the landmarks into subgroups and train a separate network for each subgroup. To generate better training labels, we propose using dense reconstructions to estimate visibility of scene landmarks. Finally, we present a compact architecture to improve memory efficiency. Accuracy wise, our approach is on par with state of the art structure based methods on the INDOOR-6 dataset but runs significantly faster and uses less storage. Code and models can be found at //github.com/microsoft/SceneLandmarkLocalization.
The ability to predict the performance of a query before results are returned has been a longstanding challenge in Information Retrieval (IR) systems. Inspired by this task, we introduce, in this paper, a novel task called "Prompt Performance Prediction" (PPP) that aims to predict the performance of a prompt, before obtaining the actual generated images. We demonstrate the plausibility of our task by measuring the correlation coefficient between predicted and actual performance scores across: three datasets containing pairs of prompts and generated images AND three art domain datasets of real images and real user appreciation ratings. Our results show promising performance prediction capabilities, suggesting potential applications for optimizing user prompts.
The challenges of graph stream algorithms are twofold. First, each edge needs to be processed only once, and second, it needs to work on highly constrained memory. Diffusion degree is a measure of node centrality that can be calculated (for all nodes) trivially for static graphs using a single Breadth-First Search (BFS). However, keeping track of the Diffusion Degree in a graph stream is nontrivial. The memory requirement for exact calculation is equivalent to keeping the whole graph in memory. The present paper proposes an estimator (or sketch) of diffusion degree for graph streams. We prove the correctness of the proposed sketch and the upper bound of the estimated error. Given $\epsilon, \delta \in (0,1)$, we achieve error below $\epsilon(b_u-a_u)d_u\lambda$ in node $u$ with probability $1-\delta$ by utilizing $O(n\frac1{\epsilon^2}\log{\frac1{\delta}})$ space, where $b_u$ and $a_u$ are the maximum and minimum degrees of neighbors of $u$, $\lambda$ is diffusion probability, and $d_u$ is the degree of node $u$. With the help of this sketch, we propose an algorithm to extract the top-$k$ influencing nodes in the graph stream. Comparative experiments show that the spread of top-$k$ nodes by the proposed graph stream algorithm is equivalent to or better than the spread of top-$k$ nodes extracted by the exact algorithm.
With the rapid development of deep learning, training Big Models (BMs) for multiple downstream tasks becomes a popular paradigm. Researchers have achieved various outcomes in the construction of BMs and the BM application in many fields. At present, there is a lack of research work that sorts out the overall progress of BMs and guides the follow-up research. In this paper, we cover not only the BM technologies themselves but also the prerequisites for BM training and applications with BMs, dividing the BM review into four parts: Resource, Models, Key Technologies and Application. We introduce 16 specific BM-related topics in those four parts, they are Data, Knowledge, Computing System, Parallel Training System, Language Model, Vision Model, Multi-modal Model, Theory&Interpretability, Commonsense Reasoning, Reliability&Security, Governance, Evaluation, Machine Translation, Text Generation, Dialogue and Protein Research. In each topic, we summarize clearly the current studies and propose some future research directions. At the end of this paper, we conclude the further development of BMs in a more general view.
Humans perceive the world by concurrently processing and fusing high-dimensional inputs from multiple modalities such as vision and audio. Machine perception models, in stark contrast, are typically modality-specific and optimised for unimodal benchmarks, and hence late-stage fusion of final representations or predictions from each modality (`late-fusion') is still a dominant paradigm for multimodal video classification. Instead, we introduce a novel transformer based architecture that uses `fusion bottlenecks' for modality fusion at multiple layers. Compared to traditional pairwise self-attention, our model forces information between different modalities to pass through a small number of bottleneck latents, requiring the model to collate and condense the most relevant information in each modality and only share what is necessary. We find that such a strategy improves fusion performance, at the same time reducing computational cost. We conduct thorough ablation studies, and achieve state-of-the-art results on multiple audio-visual classification benchmarks including Audioset, Epic-Kitchens and VGGSound. All code and models will be released.
Recent advances in maximizing mutual information (MI) between the source and target have demonstrated its effectiveness in text generation. However, previous works paid little attention to modeling the backward network of MI (i.e., dependency from the target to the source), which is crucial to the tightness of the variational information maximization lower bound. In this paper, we propose Adversarial Mutual Information (AMI): a text generation framework which is formed as a novel saddle point (min-max) optimization aiming to identify joint interactions between the source and target. Within this framework, the forward and backward networks are able to iteratively promote or demote each other's generated instances by comparing the real and synthetic data distributions. We also develop a latent noise sampling strategy that leverages random variations at the high-level semantic space to enhance the long term dependency in the generation process. Extensive experiments based on different text generation tasks demonstrate that the proposed AMI framework can significantly outperform several strong baselines, and we also show that AMI has potential to lead to a tighter lower bound of maximum mutual information for the variational information maximization problem.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.
Embedding models for deterministic Knowledge Graphs (KG) have been extensively studied, with the purpose of capturing latent semantic relations between entities and incorporating the structured knowledge into machine learning. However, there are many KGs that model uncertain knowledge, which typically model the inherent uncertainty of relations facts with a confidence score, and embedding such uncertain knowledge represents an unresolved challenge. The capturing of uncertain knowledge will benefit many knowledge-driven applications such as question answering and semantic search by providing more natural characterization of the knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel uncertain KG embedding model UKGE, which aims to preserve both structural and uncertainty information of relation facts in the embedding space. Unlike previous models that characterize relation facts with binary classification techniques, UKGE learns embeddings according to the confidence scores of uncertain relation facts. To further enhance the precision of UKGE, we also introduce probabilistic soft logic to infer confidence scores for unseen relation facts during training. We propose and evaluate two variants of UKGE based on different learning objectives. Experiments are conducted on three real-world uncertain KGs via three tasks, i.e. confidence prediction, relation fact ranking, and relation fact classification. UKGE shows effectiveness in capturing uncertain knowledge by achieving promising results on these tasks, and consistently outperforms baselines on these tasks.
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