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Statistical machine learning methods often face the challenge of limited data available from the population of interest. One remedy is to leverage data from auxiliary source populations, which share some conditional distributions or are linked in other ways with the target domain. Techniques leveraging such \emph{dataset shift} conditions are known as \emph{domain adaptation} or \emph{transfer learning}. Despite extensive literature on dataset shift, limited works address how to efficiently use the auxiliary populations to improve the accuracy of risk evaluation for a given machine learning task in the target population. In this paper, we study the general problem of efficiently estimating target population risk under various dataset shift conditions, leveraging semiparametric efficiency theory. We consider a general class of dataset shift conditions, which includes three popular conditions -- covariate, label and concept shift -- as special cases. We allow for partially non-overlapping support between the source and target populations. We develop efficient and multiply robust estimators along with a straightforward specification test of these dataset shift conditions. We also derive efficiency bounds for two other dataset shift conditions, posterior drift and location-scale shift. Simulation studies support the efficiency gains due to leveraging plausible dataset shift conditions.

We study causal inference and efficient estimation for the expected number of recurrent events in the presence of a terminal event. We define our estimand as the vector comprising both the expected number of recurrent events and the failure survival function evaluated along a sequence of landmark times. We identify the estimand in the presence of right-censoring and causal selection as an observed data functional under coarsening at random, derive the nonparametric efficiency bound, and propose a multiply-robust estimator that achieves the bound and permits nonparametric estimation of nuisance parameters. Throughout, no absolute continuity assumption is made on the underlying probability distributions of failure, censoring, or the observed data. Additionally, we derive the class of influence functions when the coarsening distribution is known and review how published estimators may belong to the class. Along the way, we highlight some interesting inconsistencies in the causal lifetime analysis literature.

Digital technologies can be used to gather accurate information about the behavior of structural components for improving systems design, as well as for enabling advanced Structural Health Monitoring strategies. New avenues for achieving automated and continuous structural assessment are opened up via development of virtualization approaches delivering so-called Digital Twins, i.e., digital mirrored representations of physical. In this framework, the main motivation of this work stems from the existing challenges in the implementation and deployment of a real-time predictive framework for virtualization of dynamic systems. Kalman-based filters are usually employed in this context to address the task of joint input-state prediction in structural dynamics. A Gaussian Process Latent Force Model (GPLFM) approach is exploited in this work to construct flexible data-driven a priori models for the unknown inputs, which are then coupled with a mechanistic model of the structural component under study for input-state estimation. The use of GP regression for this task overcomes the limitations of the conventional random-walk model, thus limiting the necessity of offline user-dependent calibration of this type of data assimilation methods. This paper proposes the use of alternative covariance functions for GP regression in structural dynamics. A theoretical analysis of the GPLFMs linked to the investigated covariance functions is offered. The outcome of this study provides insights into the applicability of each covariance type for GP-based input-state estimation. The proposed framework is validated via an illustrative simulated example, namely a 3 Degrees of Freedom system subjected to an array of different loading scenarios. Additionally, the performance of the method is experimentally assessed on the task of joint input-state estimation during testing of a 3D-printed scaled wind turbine blade.

The Huge Object model for distribution testing, first defined by Goldreich and Ron in 2022, combines the features of classical string testing and distribution testing. In this model we are given access to independent samples from an unknown distribution $P$ over the set of strings $\{0,1\}^n$, but are only allowed to query a few bits from the samples. The distinction between adaptive and non-adaptive algorithms, which is natural in the realm of string testing (but is not relevant for classical distribution testing), plays a substantial role in the Huge Object model as well. In this work we show that in fact, the full picture in the Huge Object model is much richer than just that of the ``adaptive vs. non-adaptive'' dichotomy. We define and investigate several models of adaptivity that lie between the fully-adaptive and the completely non-adaptive extremes. These models are naturally grounded by viewing the querying process from each sample independently, and considering the ``algorithmic flow'' between them. For example, if we allow no information at all to cross over between samples (up to the final decision), then we obtain the locally bounded adaptive model, arguably the ``least adaptive'' one apart from being completely non-adaptive. A slightly stronger model allows only a ``one-way'' information flow. Even stronger (but still far from being fully adaptive) models follow by taking inspiration from the setting of streaming algorithms. To show that we indeed have a hierarchy, we prove a chain of exponential separations encompassing most of the models that we define.

Network compression is now a mature sub-field of neural network research: over the last decade, significant progress has been made towards reducing the size of models and speeding up inference, while maintaining the classification accuracy. However, many works have observed that focusing on just the overall accuracy can be misguided. E.g., it has been shown that mismatches between the full and compressed models can be biased towards under-represented classes. This raises the important research question, can we achieve network compression while maintaining "semantic equivalence" with the original network? In this work, we study this question in the context of the "long tail" phenomenon in computer vision datasets observed by Feldman, et al. They argue that memorization of certain inputs (appropriately defined) is essential to achieving good generalization. As compression limits the capacity of a network (and hence also its ability to memorize), we study the question: are mismatches between the full and compressed models correlated with the memorized training data? We present positive evidence in this direction for image classification tasks, by considering different base architectures and compression schemes.

The separate tasks of denoising, conditional expectation and manifold learning can often be posed in a common setting of finding the conditional expectations arising from a product of two random variables. This paper focuses on this more general problem and describes an operator theoretic approach to estimating the conditional expectation. Kernel integral operators are used as a compactification tool, to set up the estimation problem as a linear inverse problem in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. This equation is shown to have solutions that are stable to numerical approximation, thus guaranteeing the convergence of data-driven implementations. The overall technique is easy to implement, and their successful application to some real-world problems are also shown.

Theoretical studies on transfer learning or domain adaptation have so far focused on situations with a known hypothesis class or model; however in practice, some amount of model selection is usually involved, often appearing under the umbrella term of hyperparameter-tuning: for example, one may think of the problem of tuning for the right neural network architecture towards a target task, while leveraging data from a related source task. Now, in addition to the usual tradeoffs on approximation vs estimation errors involved in model selection, this problem brings in a new complexity term, namely, the transfer distance between source and target distributions, which is known to vary with the choice of hypothesis class. We present a first study of this problem, focusing on classification; in particular, the analysis reveals some remarkable phenomena: adaptive rates, i.e., those achievable with no distributional information, can be arbitrarily slower than oracle rates, i.e., when given knowledge on distances.

Separating signals from an additive mixture may be an unnecessarily hard problem when one is only interested in specific properties of a given signal. In this work, we tackle simpler "statistical component separation" problems that focus on recovering a predefined set of statistical descriptors of a target signal from a noisy mixture. Assuming access to samples of the noise process, we investigate a method devised to match the statistics of the solution candidate corrupted by noise samples with those of the observed mixture. We first analyze the behavior of this method using simple examples with analytically tractable calculations. Then, we apply it in an image denoising context employing 1) wavelet-based descriptors, 2) ConvNet-based descriptors on astrophysics and ImageNet data. In the case of 1), we show that our method better recovers the descriptors of the target data than a standard denoising method in most situations. Additionally, despite not constructed for this purpose, it performs surprisingly well in terms of peak signal-to-noise ratio on full signal reconstruction. In comparison, representation 2) appears less suitable for image denoising. Finally, we extend this method by introducing a diffusive stepwise algorithm which gives a new perspective to the initial method and leads to promising results for image denoising under specific circumstances.

Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.

While recent studies on semi-supervised learning have shown remarkable progress in leveraging both labeled and unlabeled data, most of them presume a basic setting of the model is randomly initialized. In this work, we consider semi-supervised learning and transfer learning jointly, leading to a more practical and competitive paradigm that can utilize both powerful pre-trained models from source domain as well as labeled/unlabeled data in the target domain. To better exploit the value of both pre-trained weights and unlabeled target examples, we introduce adaptive consistency regularization that consists of two complementary components: Adaptive Knowledge Consistency (AKC) on the examples between the source and target model, and Adaptive Representation Consistency (ARC) on the target model between labeled and unlabeled examples. Examples involved in the consistency regularization are adaptively selected according to their potential contributions to the target task. We conduct extensive experiments on several popular benchmarks including CUB-200-2011, MIT Indoor-67, MURA, by fine-tuning the ImageNet pre-trained ResNet-50 model. Results show that our proposed adaptive consistency regularization outperforms state-of-the-art semi-supervised learning techniques such as Pseudo Label, Mean Teacher, and MixMatch. Moreover, our algorithm is orthogonal to existing methods and thus able to gain additional improvements on top of MixMatch and FixMatch. Our code is available at //github.com/SHI-Labs/Semi-Supervised-Transfer-Learning.