Agents in mixed-motive coordination problems such as Chicken may fail to coordinate on a Pareto-efficient outcome. Safe Pareto improvements (SPIs) were originally proposed to mitigate miscoordination in cases where players lack probabilistic beliefs as to how their delegates will play a game; delegates are instructed to behave so as to guarantee a Pareto improvement on how they would play by default. More generally, SPIs may be defined as transformations of strategy profiles such that all players are necessarily better off under the transformed profile. In this work, we investigate the extent to which SPIs can reduce downsides of miscoordination between expected utility-maximizing agents. We consider games in which players submit computer programs that can condition their decisions on each other's code, and use this property to construct SPIs using programs capable of renegotiation. We first show that under mild conditions on players' beliefs, each player always prefers to use renegotiation. Next, we show that under similar assumptions, each player always prefers to be willing to renegotiate at least to the point at which they receive the lowest payoff they can attain in any efficient outcome. Thus subjectively optimal play guarantees players at least these payoffs, without the need for coordination on specific Pareto improvements. Lastly, we prove that renegotiation does not guarantee players any improvements on this bound.
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Variational regression methods are an increasingly popular tool for their efficient estimation of complex. Given the mixed model representation of penalized effects, additive regression models with smoothed effects and scalar-on-function regression models can be fit relatively efficiently in a variational framework. However, inferential procedures for smoothed and functional effects in such a context is limited. We demonstrate that by using the Mean Field Variational Bayesian (MFVB) approximation to the additive model and the subsequent Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference (CAVI) algorithm, we can obtain a form of the estimated effects required of a Frequentist test for semiparametric curves. We establish MFVB approximations and CAVI algorithms for both Gaussian and binary additive models with an arbitrary number of smoothed and functional effects. We then derive a global testing framework for smoothed and functional effects. Our empirical study demonstrates that the test maintains good Frequentist properties in the variational framework and can be used to directly test results from a converged, MFVB approximation and CAVI algorithm. We illustrate the applicability of this approach in a wide range of data illustrations.
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable progress in automated code generation. Yet, LLM-generated code may contain errors in API usage, class, data structure, or missing project-specific information. As much of this project-specific context cannot fit into the prompts of LLMs, we must find ways to allow the model to explore the project-level code context. We present CoCoGen, a new code generation approach that uses compiler feedback to improve the LLM-generated code. CoCoGen first leverages static analysis to identify mismatches between the generated code and the project's context. It then iteratively aligns and fixes the identified errors using information extracted from the code repository. We integrate CoCoGen with two representative LLMs, i.e., GPT-3.5-Turbo and Code Llama (13B), and apply it to Python code generation. Experimental results show that CoCoGen significantly improves the vanilla LLMs by over 80% in generating code dependent on the project context and consistently outperforms the existing retrieval-based code generation baselines.
Recent advances in generative vision-language models (VLMs) have exciting potential implications for AI in radiology, yet VLMs are also known to produce hallucinations, nonsensical text, and other unwanted behaviors that can waste clinicians' time and cause patient harm. Drawing on recent work on direct preference optimization (DPO), we propose a simple method for modifying the behavior of pretrained VLMs performing radiology report generation by suppressing unwanted types of generations. We apply our method to the prevention of hallucinations of prior exams, addressing a long-established problem behavior in models performing chest X-ray report generation. Across our experiments, we find that DPO fine-tuning achieves a 3.2-4.8x reduction in lines hallucinating prior exams while maintaining model performance on clinical accuracy metrics. Our work is, to the best of our knowledge, the first work to apply DPO to medical VLMs, providing a data- and compute- efficient way to suppress problem behaviors while maintaining overall clinical accuracy.
In autonomous driving, the most challenging scenarios are the ones that can only be detected within their temporal context. Most video anomaly detection approaches focus either on surveillance or traffic accidents, which are only a subfield of autonomous driving. In this work, we present HF$^2$-VAD$_{AD}$, a variation of the HF$^2$-VAD surveillance video anomaly detection method for autonomous driving. We learn a representation of normality from a vehicle's ego perspective and evaluate pixel-wise anomaly detections in rare and critical scenarios.
Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN) are Graph Neural Networks where the convolutions are applied over a graph. In contrast to Convolutional Neural Networks, GCN's are designed to perform inference on graphs, where the number of nodes can vary, and the nodes are unordered. In this study, we address two important challenges related to GCNs: i) oversmoothing; and ii) the utilization of node relational properties (i.e., heterophily and homophily). Oversmoothing is the degradation of the discriminative capacity of nodes as a result of repeated aggregations. Heterophily is the tendency for nodes of different classes to connect, whereas homophily is the tendency of similar nodes to connect. We propose a new strategy for addressing these challenges in GCNs based on Transfer Entropy (TE), which measures of the amount of directed transfer of information between two time varying nodes. Our findings indicate that using node heterophily and degree information as a node selection mechanism, along with feature-based TE calculations, enhances accuracy across various GCN models. Our model can be easily modified to improve classification accuracy of a GCN model. As a trade off, this performance boost comes with a significant computational overhead when the TE is computed for many graph nodes.
This paper introduces Mixed Effect Gradient Boosting (MEGB), which combines the strengths of Gradient Boosting with Mixed Effects models to address complex, hierarchical data structures often encountered in statistical analysis. The methodological foundations, including a review of the Mixed Effects model and the Extreme Gradient Boosting method, leading to the introduction of MEGB are shown in detail. It highlights how MEGB can derive area-level mean estimations from unit-level data and calculate Mean Squared Error (MSE) estimates using a nonparametric bootstrap approach. The paper evaluates MEGB's performance through model-based and design-based simulation studies, comparing it against established estimators. The findings indicate that MEGB provides promising area mean estimations and may outperform existing small area estimators in various scenarios. The paper concludes with a discussion on future research directions, highlighting the possibility of extending MEGB's framework to accommodate different types of outcome variables or non-linear area level indicators.
Recent artificial intelligence (AI) systems have reached milestones in "grand challenges" ranging from Go to protein-folding. The capability to retrieve medical knowledge, reason over it, and answer medical questions comparably to physicians has long been viewed as one such grand challenge. Large language models (LLMs) have catalyzed significant progress in medical question answering; Med-PaLM was the first model to exceed a "passing" score in US Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) style questions with a score of 67.2% on the MedQA dataset. However, this and other prior work suggested significant room for improvement, especially when models' answers were compared to clinicians' answers. Here we present Med-PaLM 2, which bridges these gaps by leveraging a combination of base LLM improvements (PaLM 2), medical domain finetuning, and prompting strategies including a novel ensemble refinement approach. Med-PaLM 2 scored up to 86.5% on the MedQA dataset, improving upon Med-PaLM by over 19% and setting a new state-of-the-art. We also observed performance approaching or exceeding state-of-the-art across MedMCQA, PubMedQA, and MMLU clinical topics datasets. We performed detailed human evaluations on long-form questions along multiple axes relevant to clinical applications. In pairwise comparative ranking of 1066 consumer medical questions, physicians preferred Med-PaLM 2 answers to those produced by physicians on eight of nine axes pertaining to clinical utility (p < 0.001). We also observed significant improvements compared to Med-PaLM on every evaluation axis (p < 0.001) on newly introduced datasets of 240 long-form "adversarial" questions to probe LLM limitations. While further studies are necessary to validate the efficacy of these models in real-world settings, these results highlight rapid progress towards physician-level performance in medical question answering.
Emotion recognition in conversation (ERC) aims to detect the emotion label for each utterance. Motivated by recent studies which have proven that feeding training examples in a meaningful order rather than considering them randomly can boost the performance of models, we propose an ERC-oriented hybrid curriculum learning framework. Our framework consists of two curricula: (1) conversation-level curriculum (CC); and (2) utterance-level curriculum (UC). In CC, we construct a difficulty measurer based on "emotion shift" frequency within a conversation, then the conversations are scheduled in an "easy to hard" schema according to the difficulty score returned by the difficulty measurer. For UC, it is implemented from an emotion-similarity perspective, which progressively strengthens the model's ability in identifying the confusing emotions. With the proposed model-agnostic hybrid curriculum learning strategy, we observe significant performance boosts over a wide range of existing ERC models and we are able to achieve new state-of-the-art results on four public ERC datasets.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently become increasingly popular due to their ability to learn complex systems of relations or interactions arising in a broad spectrum of problems ranging from biology and particle physics to social networks and recommendation systems. Despite the plethora of different models for deep learning on graphs, few approaches have been proposed thus far for dealing with graphs that present some sort of dynamic nature (e.g. evolving features or connectivity over time). In this paper, we present Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs), a generic, efficient framework for deep learning on dynamic graphs represented as sequences of timed events. Thanks to a novel combination of memory modules and graph-based operators, TGNs are able to significantly outperform previous approaches being at the same time more computationally efficient. We furthermore show that several previous models for learning on dynamic graphs can be cast as specific instances of our framework. We perform a detailed ablation study of different components of our framework and devise the best configuration that achieves state-of-the-art performance on several transductive and inductive prediction tasks for dynamic graphs.
Visual Question Answering (VQA) models have struggled with counting objects in natural images so far. We identify a fundamental problem due to soft attention in these models as a cause. To circumvent this problem, we propose a neural network component that allows robust counting from object proposals. Experiments on a toy task show the effectiveness of this component and we obtain state-of-the-art accuracy on the number category of the VQA v2 dataset without negatively affecting other categories, even outperforming ensemble models with our single model. On a difficult balanced pair metric, the component gives a substantial improvement in counting over a strong baseline by 6.6%.
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