One of the contemporary challenges in anomaly detection is the ability to detect, and differentiate between, both point and collective anomalies within a data sequence or time series. The anomaly package has been developed to provide users with a choice of anomaly detection methods and, in particular, provides an implementation of the recently proposed Collective And Point Anomaly family of anomaly detection algorithms. This article describes the methods implemented whilst also highlighting their application to simulated data as well as real data examples contained in the package.
相關內容
在數據挖掘中，異常檢測（英語：anomaly detection）對不符合預期模式或數據集中其他項目的項目、事件或觀測值的識別。通常異常項目會轉變成銀行欺詐、結構缺陷、醫療問題、文本錯誤等類型的問題。異常也被稱為離群值、新奇、噪聲、偏差和例外。
特別是在檢測濫用與網絡入侵時，有趣性對象往往不是罕見對象，但卻是超出預料的突發活動。這種模式不遵循通常統計定義中把異常點看作是罕見對象，于是許多異常檢測方法（特別是無監督的方法）將對此類數據失效，除非進行了合適的聚集。相反，聚類分析算法可能可以檢測出這些模式形成的微聚類。
有三大類異常檢測方法。[1] 在假設數據集中大多數實例都是正常的前提下，無監督異常檢測方法能通過尋找與其他數據最不匹配的實例來檢測出未標記測試數據的異常。監督式異常檢測方法需要一個已經被標記“正常”與“異常”的數據集，并涉及到訓練分類器（與許多其他的統計分類問題的關鍵區別是異常檢測的內在不均衡性）。半監督式異常檢測方法根據一個給定的正常訓練數據集創建一個表示正常行為的模型，然后檢測由學習模型生成的測試實例的可能性。
Understanding the dimension dependency of computational complexity in high-dimensional sampling problem is a fundamental problem, both from a practical and theoretical perspective. Compared with samplers with unbiased stationary distribution, e.g., Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA), biased samplers, e.g., Underdamped Langevin Dynamics (ULD), perform better in low-accuracy cases just because a lower dimension dependency in their complexities. Along this line, Freund et al. (2022) suggest that the modified Langevin algorithm with prior diffusion is able to converge dimension independently for strongly log-concave target distributions. Nonetheless, it remains open whether such property establishes for more general cases. In this paper, we investigate the prior diffusion technique for the target distributions satisfying log-Sobolev inequality (LSI), which covers a much broader class of distributions compared to the strongly log-concave ones. In particular, we prove that the modified Langevin algorithm can also obtain the dimension-independent convergence of KL divergence with different step size schedules. The core of our proof technique is a novel construction of an interpolating SDE, which significantly helps to conduct a more accurate characterization of the discrete updates of the overdamped Langevin dynamics. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates the benefits of prior diffusion for a broader class of target distributions and provides new insights into developing faster sampling algorithms.
We propose an instrumental variable framework for identifying and estimating average and quantile effects of discrete and continuous treatments with binary instruments. The basis of our approach is a local copula representation of the joint distribution of the potential outcomes and unobservables determining treatment assignment. This representation allows us to introduce an identifying assumption, so-called copula invariance, that restricts the local dependence of the copula with respect to the treatment propensity. We show that copula invariance identifies treatment effects for the entire population and other subpopulations such as the treated. The identification results are constructive and lead to straightforward semiparametric estimation procedures based on distribution regression. An application to the effect of sleep on well-being uncovers interesting patterns of heterogeneity.
A recent development in Bayesian optimization is the use of local optimization strategies, which can deliver strong empirical performance on high-dimensional problems compared to traditional global strategies. The "folk wisdom" in the literature is that the focus on local optimization sidesteps the curse of dimensionality; however, little is known concretely about the expected behavior or convergence of Bayesian local optimization routines. We first study the behavior of the local approach, and find that the statistics of individual local solutions of Gaussian process sample paths are surprisingly good compared to what we would expect to recover from global methods. We then present the first rigorous analysis of such a Bayesian local optimization algorithm recently proposed by M\"uller et al. (2021), and derive convergence rates in both the noisy and noiseless settings.
Changes in the timescales at which complex systems evolve are essential to predicting critical transitions and catastrophic failures. Disentangling the timescales of the dynamics governing complex systems remains a key challenge. With this study, we introduce an integrated Bayesian framework based on temporal network models to address this challenge. We focus on two methodologies: change point detection for identifying shifts in system dynamics, and a spectrum analysis for inferring the distribution of timescales. Applied to synthetic and empirical datasets, these methologies robustly identify critical transitions and comprehensively map the dominant and subsidiaries timescales in complex systems. This dual approach offers a powerful tool for analyzing temporal networks, significantly enhancing our understanding of dynamic behaviors in complex systems.
Recommendation algorithms play a pivotal role in shaping our media choices, which makes it crucial to comprehend their long-term impact on user behavior. These algorithms are often linked to two critical outcomes: homogenization, wherein users consume similar content despite disparate underlying preferences, and the filter bubble effect, wherein individuals with differing preferences only consume content aligned with their preferences (without much overlap with other users). Prior research assumes a trade-off between homogenization and filter bubble effects and then shows that personalized recommendations mitigate filter bubbles by fostering homogenization. However, because of this assumption of a tradeoff between these two effects, prior work cannot develop a more nuanced view of how recommendation systems may independently impact homogenization and filter bubble effects. We develop a more refined definition of homogenization and the filter bubble effect by decomposing them into two key metrics: how different the average consumption is between users (inter-user diversity) and how varied an individual's consumption is (intra-user diversity). We then use a novel agent-based simulation framework that enables a holistic view of the impact of recommendation systems on homogenization and filter bubble effects. Our simulations show that traditional recommendation algorithms (based on past behavior) mainly reduce filter bubbles by affecting inter-user diversity without significantly impacting intra-user diversity. Building on these findings, we introduce two new recommendation algorithms that take a more nuanced approach by accounting for both types of diversity.
Embodied scene understanding serves as the cornerstone for autonomous agents to perceive, interpret, and respond to open driving scenarios. Such understanding is typically founded upon Vision-Language Models (VLMs). Nevertheless, existing VLMs are restricted to the 2D domain, devoid of spatial awareness and long-horizon extrapolation proficiencies. We revisit the key aspects of autonomous driving and formulate appropriate rubrics. Hereby, we introduce the Embodied Language Model (ELM), a comprehensive framework tailored for agents' understanding of driving scenes with large spatial and temporal spans. ELM incorporates space-aware pre-training to endow the agent with robust spatial localization capabilities. Besides, the model employs time-aware token selection to accurately inquire about temporal cues. We instantiate ELM on the reformulated multi-faced benchmark, and it surpasses previous state-of-the-art approaches in all aspects. All code, data, and models will be publicly shared.
We propose some new results on the comparison of the minimum or maximum order statistic from a random number of non-identical random variables. Under the non-identical set-up, with certain conditions, we prove that random minimum (maximum) of one system dominates the other in hazard rate (reversed hazard rate) order. Further, we prove variation diminishing property (Karlin [8]) for all possible restrictions to derive the new results.
Reasoning, a crucial ability for complex problem-solving, plays a pivotal role in various real-world settings such as negotiation, medical diagnosis, and criminal investigation. It serves as a fundamental methodology in the field of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). With the ongoing development of foundation models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing interest in exploring their abilities in reasoning tasks. In this paper, we introduce seminal foundation models proposed or adaptable for reasoning, highlighting the latest advancements in various reasoning tasks, methods, and benchmarks. We then delve into the potential future directions behind the emergence of reasoning abilities within foundation models. We also discuss the relevance of multimodal learning, autonomous agents, and super alignment in the context of reasoning. By discussing these future research directions, we hope to inspire researchers in their exploration of this field, stimulate further advancements in reasoning with foundation models, and contribute to the development of AGI.
The advent of large language models marks a revolutionary breakthrough in artificial intelligence. With the unprecedented scale of training and model parameters, the capability of large language models has been dramatically improved, leading to human-like performances in understanding, language synthesizing, and common-sense reasoning, etc. Such a major leap-forward in general AI capacity will change the pattern of how personalization is conducted. For one thing, it will reform the way of interaction between humans and personalization systems. Instead of being a passive medium of information filtering, large language models present the foundation for active user engagement. On top of such a new foundation, user requests can be proactively explored, and user's required information can be delivered in a natural and explainable way. For another thing, it will also considerably expand the scope of personalization, making it grow from the sole function of collecting personalized information to the compound function of providing personalized services. By leveraging large language models as general-purpose interface, the personalization systems may compile user requests into plans, calls the functions of external tools to execute the plans, and integrate the tools' outputs to complete the end-to-end personalization tasks. Today, large language models are still being developed, whereas the application in personalization is largely unexplored. Therefore, we consider it to be the right time to review the challenges in personalization and the opportunities to address them with LLMs. In particular, we dedicate this perspective paper to the discussion of the following aspects: the development and challenges for the existing personalization system, the newly emerged capabilities of large language models, and the potential ways of making use of large language models for personalization.
This work considers the question of how convenient access to copious data impacts our ability to learn causal effects and relations. In what ways is learning causality in the era of big data different from -- or the same as -- the traditional one? To answer this question, this survey provides a comprehensive and structured review of both traditional and frontier methods in learning causality and relations along with the connections between causality and machine learning. This work points out on a case-by-case basis how big data facilitates, complicates, or motivates each approach.
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