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Suppose we observe a random vector $X$ from some distribution $P$ in a known family with unknown parameters. We ask the following question: when is it possible to split $X$ into two parts $f(X)$ and $g(X)$ such that neither part is sufficient to reconstruct $X$ by itself, but both together can recover $X$ fully, and the joint distribution of $(f(X),g(X))$ is tractable? As one example, if $X=(X_1,\dots,X_n)$ and $P$ is a product distribution, then for any $m<n$, we can split the sample to define $f(X)=(X_1,\dots,X_m)$ and $g(X)=(X_{m+1},\dots,X_n)$. Rasines and Young (2021) offers an alternative route of accomplishing this task through randomization of $X$ with additive Gaussian noise which enables post-selection inference in finite samples for Gaussian distributed data and asymptotically for non-Gaussian additive models. In this paper, we offer a more general methodology for achieving such a split in finite samples by borrowing ideas from Bayesian inference to yield a (frequentist) solution that can be viewed as a continuous analog of data splitting. We call our method data fission, as an alternative to data splitting, data carving and p-value masking. We exemplify the method on a few prototypical applications, such as post-selection inference for trend filtering and other regression problems.

Many deep reinforcement learning algorithms rely on simple forms of exploration, such as the additive action-noise often used in continuous control domains. Typically, the scaling factor of this action noise is chosen as a hyper-parameter and kept constant during training. In this paper, we analyze how the learned policy is impacted by the noise type, scale, and reducing of the scaling factor over time. We consider the two most prominent types of action-noise: Gaussian and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise, and perform a vast experimental campaign by systematically varying the noise type and scale parameter, and by measuring variables of interest like the expected return of the policy and the state space coverage during exploration. For the latter, we propose a novel state-space coverage measure $\operatorname{X}_{\mathcal{U}\text{rel}}$ that is more robust to boundary artifacts than previously proposed measures. Larger noise scales generally increase state space coverage. However, we found that increasing the space coverage using a larger noise scale is often not beneficial. On the contrary, reducing the noise-scale over the training process reduces the variance and generally improves the learning performance. We conclude that the best noise-type and scale are environment dependent, and based on our observations, derive heuristic rules for guiding the choice of the action noise as a starting point for further optimization.

We commonly assume that data are a homogeneous set of observations when learning the structure of Bayesian networks. However, they often comprise different data sets that are related but not homogeneous because they have been collected in different ways or from different populations. In our previous work (Azzimonti, Corani and Scutari, 2021), we proposed a closed-form Bayesian Hierarchical Dirichlet score for discrete data that pools information across related data sets to learn a single encompassing network structure, while taking into account the differences in their probabilistic structures. In this paper, we provide an analogous solution for learning a Bayesian network from continuous data using mixed-effects models to pool information across the related data sets. We study its structural, parametric, predictive and classification accuracy and we show that it outperforms both conditional Gaussian Bayesian networks (that do not perform any pooling) and classical Gaussian Bayesian networks (that disregard the heterogeneous nature of the data). The improvement is marked for low sample sizes and for unbalanced data sets.

The increased integration of renewable energy poses a slew of technical challenges for the operation of power distribution networks. Among them, voltage fluctuations caused by the instability of renewable energy are receiving increasing attention. Utilizing MARL algorithms to coordinate multiple control units in the grid, which is able to handle rapid changes of power systems, has been widely studied in active voltage control task recently. However, existing approaches based on MARL ignore the unique nature of the grid and achieve limited performance. In this paper, we introduce the transformer architecture to extract representations adapting to power network problems and propose a Transformer-based Multi-Agent Actor-Critic framework (T-MAAC) to stabilize voltage in power distribution networks. In addition, we adopt a novel auxiliary-task training process tailored to the voltage control task, which improves the sample efficiency and facilitating the representation learning of the transformer-based model. We couple T-MAAC with different multi-agent actor-critic algorithms, and the consistent improvements on the active voltage control task demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Recently, an increasing number of researchers, especially in the realm of political redistricting, have proposed sampling-based techniques to generate a subset of plans from the vast space of districting plans. These techniques have been increasingly adopted by U.S. courts of law and independent commissions as a tool for identifying partisan gerrymanders. Motivated by these recent developments, we develop a set of similar sampling techniques for designing school boundaries based on the flip proposal. Note that the flip proposal here refers to the change in the districting plan by a single assignment. These sampling-based techniques serve a dual purpose. They can be used as a baseline for comparing redistricting algorithms based on local search. Additionally, these techniques can help to infer the problem characteristics that may be further used for developing efficient redistricting methods. We empirically touch on both these aspects in regards to the problem of school redistricting.

Diffusion models have recently shown great promise for generative modeling, outperforming GANs on perceptual quality and autoregressive models at density estimation. A remaining downside is their slow sampling time: generating high quality samples takes many hundreds or thousands of model evaluations. Here we make two contributions to help eliminate this downside: First, we present new parameterizations of diffusion models that provide increased stability when using few sampling steps. Second, we present a method to distill a trained deterministic diffusion sampler, using many steps, into a new diffusion model that takes half as many sampling steps. We then keep progressively applying this distillation procedure to our model, halving the number of required sampling steps each time. On standard image generation benchmarks like CIFAR-10, ImageNet, and LSUN, we start out with state-of-the-art samplers taking as many as 8192 steps, and are able to distill down to models taking as few as 4 steps without losing much perceptual quality; achieving, for example, a FID of 3.0 on CIFAR-10 in 4 steps. Finally, we show that the full progressive distillation procedure does not take more time than it takes to train the original model, thus representing an efficient solution for generative modeling using diffusion at both train and test time.

Predictive models are increasingly used to make various consequential decisions in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, finance, and policy. It becomes critical to ensure that these models make accurate predictions, are robust to shifts in the data, do not rely on spurious features, and do not unduly discriminate against minority groups. To this end, several approaches spanning various areas such as explainability, fairness, and robustness have been proposed in recent literature. Such approaches need to be human-centered as they cater to the understanding of the models to their users. However, there is a research gap in understanding the human-centric needs and challenges of monitoring machine learning (ML) models once they are deployed. To fill this gap, we conducted an interview study with 13 practitioners who have experience at the intersection of deploying ML models and engaging with customers spanning domains such as financial services, healthcare, hiring, online retail, computational advertising, and conversational assistants. We identified various human-centric challenges and requirements for model monitoring in real-world applications. Specifically, we found the need and the challenge for the model monitoring systems to clarify the impact of the monitoring observations on outcomes. Further, such insights must be actionable, robust, customizable for domain-specific use cases, and cognitively considerate to avoid information overload.

Behaviors of the synthetic characters in current military simulations are limited since they are generally generated by rule-based and reactive computational models with minimal intelligence. Such computational models cannot adapt to reflect the experience of the characters, resulting in brittle intelligence for even the most effective behavior models devised via costly and labor-intensive processes. Observation-based behavior model adaptation that leverages machine learning and the experience of synthetic entities in combination with appropriate prior knowledge can address the issues in the existing computational behavior models to create a better training experience in military training simulations. In this paper, we introduce a framework that aims to create autonomous synthetic characters that can perform coherent sequences of believable behavior while being aware of human trainees and their needs within a training simulation. This framework brings together three mutually complementary components. The first component is a Unity-based simulation environment - Rapid Integration and Development Environment (RIDE) - supporting One World Terrain (OWT) models and capable of running and supporting machine learning experiments. The second is Shiva, a novel multi-agent reinforcement and imitation learning framework that can interface with a variety of simulation environments, and that can additionally utilize a variety of learning algorithms. The final component is the Sigma Cognitive Architecture that will augment the behavior models with symbolic and probabilistic reasoning capabilities. We have successfully created proof-of-concept behavior models leveraging this framework on realistic terrain as an essential step towards bringing machine learning into military simulations.

Multivariate time series forecasting is extensively studied throughout the years with ubiquitous applications in areas such as finance, traffic, environment, etc. Still, concerns have been raised on traditional methods for incapable of modeling complex patterns or dependencies lying in real word data. To address such concerns, various deep learning models, mainly Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based methods, are proposed. Nevertheless, capturing extremely long-term patterns while effectively incorporating information from other variables remains a challenge for time-series forecasting. Furthermore, lack-of-explainability remains one serious drawback for deep neural network models. Inspired by Memory Network proposed for solving the question-answering task, we propose a deep learning based model named Memory Time-series network (MTNet) for time series forecasting. MTNet consists of a large memory component, three separate encoders, and an autoregressive component to train jointly. Additionally, the attention mechanism designed enable MTNet to be highly interpretable. We can easily tell which part of the historic data is referenced the most.