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This work introduces a reduced order modeling (ROM) framework for the solution of parameterized second-order linear elliptic partial differential equations formulated on unfitted geometries. The goal is to construct efficient projection-based ROMs, which rely on techniques such as the reduced basis method and discrete empirical interpolation. The presence of geometrical parameters in unfitted domain discretizations entails challenges for the application of standard ROMs. Therefore, in this work we propose a methodology based on i) extension of snapshots on the background mesh and ii) localization strategies to decrease the number of reduced basis functions. The method we obtain is computationally efficient and accurate, while it is agnostic with respect to the underlying discretization choice. We test the applicability of the proposed framework with numerical experiments on two model problems, namely the Poisson and linear elasticity problems. In particular, we study several benchmarks formulated on two-dimensional, trimmed domains discretized with splines and we observe a significant reduction of the online computational cost compared to standard ROMs for the same level of accuracy. Moreover, we show the applicability of our methodology to a three-dimensional geometry of a linear elastic problem.

We consider the numerical evaluation of a class of double integrals with respect to a pair of self-similar measures over a self-similar fractal set, with a weakly singular integrand of logarithmic or algebraic type. In a recent paper [Gibbs, Hewett and Moiola, Numer. Alg., 2023] it was shown that when the fractal set is ``disjoint'' in a certain sense (an example being the Cantor set), the self-similarity of the measures, combined with the homogeneity properties of the integrand, can be exploited to express the singular integral exactly in terms of regular integrals, which can be readily approximated numerically. In this paper we present a methodology for extending these results to cases where the fractal is non-disjoint. Our approach applies to many well-known examples including the Sierpinski triangle, the Vicsek fractal, the Sierpinski carpet, and the Koch snowflake.

In applications of offline reinforcement learning to observational data, such as in healthcare or education, a general concern is that observed actions might be affected by unobserved factors, inducing confounding and biasing estimates derived under the assumption of a perfect Markov decision process (MDP) model. Here we tackle this by considering off-policy evaluation in a partially observed MDP (POMDP). Specifically, we consider estimating the value of a given target policy in a POMDP given trajectories with only partial state observations generated by a different and unknown policy that may depend on the unobserved state. We tackle two questions: what conditions allow us to identify the target policy value from the observed data and, given identification, how to best estimate it. To answer these, we extend the framework of proximal causal inference to our POMDP setting, providing a variety of settings where identification is made possible by the existence of so-called bridge functions. We then show how to construct semiparametrically efficient estimators in these settings. We term the resulting framework proximal reinforcement learning (PRL). We demonstrate the benefits of PRL in an extensive simulation study and on the problem of sepsis management.

Normalized random measures with independent increments represent a large class of Bayesian nonaprametric priors and are widely used in the Bayesian nonparametric framework. In this paper, we provide the posterior consistency analysis for normalized random measures with independent increments (NRMIs) through the corresponding Levy intensities used to characterize the completely random measures in the construction of NRMIs. Assumptions are introduced on the Levy intensities to analyze the posterior consistency of NRMIs and are verified with multiple interesting examples. A focus of the paper is the Bernstein-von Mises theorem for the normalized generalized gamma process (NGGP) when the true distribution of the sample is discrete or continuous. When the Bernstein-von Mises theorem is applied to construct credible sets, in addition to the usual form there will be an additional bias term on the left endpoint closely related to the number of atoms of the true distribution when it is discrete. We also discuss the affect of the estimators for the model parameters of the NGGP under the Bernstein-von Mises convergences. Finally, to further explain the necessity of adding the bias correction in constructing credible sets, we illustrate numerically how the bias correction affects the coverage of the true value by the credible sets when the true distribution is discrete.

Efficient and accurate estimation of multivariate empirical probability distributions is fundamental to the calculation of information-theoretic measures such as mutual information and transfer entropy. Common techniques include variations on histogram estimation which, whilst computationally efficient, are often unable to precisely capture the probability density of samples with high correlation, kurtosis or fine substructure, especially when sample sizes are small. Adaptive partitions, which adjust heuristically to the sample, can reduce the bias imparted from the geometry of the histogram itself, but these have commonly focused on the location, scale and granularity of the partition, the effects of which are limited for highly correlated distributions. In this paper, I reformulate the differential entropy estimator for the special case of an equiprobable histogram, using a k-d tree to partition the sample space into bins of equal probability mass. By doing so, I expose an implicit rotational orientation parameter, which is conjectured to be suboptimally specified in the typical marginal alignment. I propose that the optimal orientation minimises the variance of the bin volumes, and demonstrate that improved entropy estimates can be obtained by rotationally aligning the partition to the sample distribution accordingly. Such optimal partitions are observed to be more accurate than existing techniques in estimating entropies of correlated bivariate Gaussian distributions with known theoretical values, across varying sample sizes (99% CI).

The R-package GeoAdjust //github.com/umut-altay/GeoAdjust-package implements fast empirical Bayesian geostatistical inference for household survey data from the Demographic and Health Surveys Program (DHS) using Template Model Builder (TMB). DHS household survey data is an important source of data for tracking demographic and health indicators, but positional uncertainty has been intentionally introduced in the GPS coordinates to preserve privacy. GeoAdjust accounts for such positional uncertainty in geostatistical models containing both spatial random effects and raster- and distance-based covariates. The R package supports Gaussian, binomial and Poisson likelihoods with identity link, logit link, and log link functions respectively. The user defines the desired model structure by setting a small number of function arguments, and can easily experiment with different hyperparameters for the priors. GeoAdjust is the first software package that is specifically designed to address positional uncertainty in the GPS coordinates of point referenced household survey data. The package provides inference for model parameters and can predict values at unobserved locations.

Recently, the robustness of deep learning models has received widespread attention, and various methods for improving model robustness have been proposed, including adversarial training, model architecture modification, design of loss functions, certified defenses, and so on. However, the principle of the robustness to attacks is still not fully understood, also the related research is still not sufficient. Here, we have identified a significant factor that affects the robustness of models: the distribution characteristics of softmax values for non-real label samples. We found that the results after an attack are highly correlated with the distribution characteristics, and thus we proposed a loss function to suppress the distribution diversity of softmax. A large number of experiments have shown that our method can improve robustness without significant time consumption.

Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.

The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with standard probability and probabilistic predictions. Yet, due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications and related issues such as safety requirements, new problems and challenges have recently been identified by machine learning scholars, and these problems may call for new methodological developments. In particular, this includes the importance of distinguishing between (at least) two different types of uncertainty, often refereed to as aleatoric and epistemic. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the topic of uncertainty in machine learning as well as an overview of hitherto attempts at handling uncertainty in general and formalizing this distinction in particular.

Many tasks in natural language processing can be viewed as multi-label classification problems. However, most of the existing models are trained with the standard cross-entropy loss function and use a fixed prediction policy (e.g., a threshold of 0.5) for all the labels, which completely ignores the complexity and dependencies among different labels. In this paper, we propose a meta-learning method to capture these complex label dependencies. More specifically, our method utilizes a meta-learner to jointly learn the training policies and prediction policies for different labels. The training policies are then used to train the classifier with the cross-entropy loss function, and the prediction policies are further implemented for prediction. Experimental results on fine-grained entity typing and text classification demonstrate that our proposed method can obtain more accurate multi-label classification results.