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In this work, we propose and computationally investigate a monolithic space-time multirate scheme for coupled problems. The novelty lies in the monolithic formulation of the multirate approach as this requires a careful design of the functional framework, corresponding discretization, and implementation. Our method of choice is a tensor-product Galerkin space-time discretization. The developments are carried out for both prototype interface- and volume coupled problems such as coupled wave-heat-problems and a displacement equation coupled to Darcy flow in a poro-elastic medium. The latter is applied to the well-known Mandel's benchmark and a three-dimensional footing problem. Detailed computational investigations and convergence analyses give evidence that our monolithic multirate framework performs well.

We introduce a fine-grained framework for uncertainty quantification of predictive models under distributional shifts. This framework distinguishes the shift in covariate distributions from that in the conditional relationship between the outcome ($Y$) and the covariates ($X$). We propose to reweight the training samples to adjust for an identifiable covariate shift while protecting against worst-case conditional distribution shift bounded in an $f$-divergence ball. Based on ideas from conformal inference and distributionally robust learning, we present an algorithm that outputs (approximately) valid and efficient prediction intervals in the presence of distributional shifts. As a use case, we apply the framework to sensitivity analysis of individual treatment effects with hidden confounding. The proposed methods are evaluated in simulation studies and three real data applications, demonstrating superior robustness and efficiency compared with existing benchmarks.

In practical applications, effectively segmenting cracks in large-scale computed tomography (CT) images holds significant importance for understanding the structural integrity of materials. However, classical methods and Machine Learning algorithms often incur high computational costs when dealing with the substantial size of input images. Hence, a robust algorithm is needed to pre-detect crack regions, enabling focused analysis and reducing computational overhead. The proposed approach addresses this challenge by offering a streamlined method for identifying crack regions in CT images with high probability. By efficiently identifying areas of interest, our algorithm allows for a more focused examination of potential anomalies within the material structure. Through comprehensive testing on both semi-synthetic and real 3D CT images, we validate the efficiency of our approach in enhancing crack segmentation while reducing computational resource requirements.

Multifidelity models integrate data from multiple sources to produce a single approximator for the underlying process. Dense low-fidelity samples are used to reduce interpolation error, while sparse high-fidelity samples are used to compensate for bias or noise in the low-fidelity samples. Deep Gaussian processes (GPs) are attractive for multifidelity modelling as they are non-parametric, robust to overfitting, perform well for small datasets, and, critically, can capture nonlinear and input-dependent relationships between data of different fidelities. Many datasets naturally contain gradient data, especially when they are generated by computational models that are compatible with automatic differentiation or have adjoint solutions. Principally, this work extends deep GPs to incorporate gradient data. We demonstrate this method on an analytical test problem and a realistic partial differential equation problem, where we predict the aerodynamic coefficients of a hypersonic flight vehicle over a range of flight conditions and geometries. In both examples, the gradient-enhanced deep GP outperforms a gradient-enhanced linear GP model and their non-gradient-enhanced counterparts.

We study a contract design problem between a principal and multiple agents. Each agent participates in an independent task with binary outcomes (success or failure), in which it may exert costly effort towards improving its probability of success, and the principal has a fixed budget which it can use to provide outcome-dependent rewards to the agents. Crucially, we assume the principal cares only about maximizing the agents' probabilities of success, not how much of the budget it expends. We first show that a contract is optimal for some objective if and only if it is a successful-get-everything contract. An immediate consequence of this result is that piece-rate contracts and bonus-pool contracts are never optimal in this setting. We then show that for any objective, there is an optimal priority-based weighted contract, which assigns positive weights and priority levels to the agents, and splits the budget among the highest-priority successful agents, with each such agent receiving a fraction of the budget proportional to her weight. This result provides a significant reduction in the dimensionality of the principal's optimal contract design problem and gives an interpretable and easily implementable optimal contract. Finally, we discuss an application of our results to the design of optimal contracts with two agents and quadratic costs. In this context, we find that the optimal contract assigns a higher weight to the agent whose success it values more, irrespective of the heterogeneity in the agents' cost parameters. This suggests that the structure of the optimal contract depends primarily on the bias in the principal's objective and is, to some extent, robust to the heterogeneity in the agents' cost functions.

Digital credentials represent a cornerstone of digital identity on the Internet. To achieve privacy, certain functionalities in credentials should be implemented. One is selective disclosure, which allows users to disclose only the claims or attributes they want. This paper presents a novel approach to selective disclosure that combines Merkle hash trees and Boneh-Lynn-Shacham (BLS) signatures. Combining these approaches, we achieve selective disclosure of claims in a single credential and creation of a verifiable presentation containing selectively disclosed claims from multiple credentials signed by different parties. Besides selective disclosure, we enable issuing credentials signed by multiple issuers using this approach.

There is currently a focus on statistical methods which can use historical trial information to help accelerate the discovery, development and delivery of medicine. Bayesian methods can be constructed so that the borrowing is "dynamic" in the sense that the similarity of the data helps to determine how much information is used. In the time to event setting with one historical data set, a popular model for a range of baseline hazards is the piecewise exponential model where the time points are fixed and a borrowing structure is imposed on the model. Although convenient for implementation this approach effects the borrowing capability of the model. We propose a Bayesian model which allows the time points to vary and a dependency to be placed between the baseline hazards. This serves to smooth the posterior baseline hazard improving both model estimation and borrowing characteristics. We explore a variety of prior structures for the borrowing within our proposed model and assess their performance against established approaches. We demonstrate that this leads to improved type I error in the presence of prior data conflict and increased power. We have developed accompanying software which is freely available and enables easy implementation of the approach.

We present Surjective Sequential Neural Likelihood (SSNL) estimation, a novel method for simulation-based inference in models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is not tractable and only a simulator that can generate synthetic data is available. SSNL fits a dimensionality-reducing surjective normalizing flow model and uses it as a surrogate likelihood function which allows for conventional Bayesian inference using either Markov chain Monte Carlo methods or variational inference. By embedding the data in a low-dimensional space, SSNL solves several issues previous likelihood-based methods had when applied to high-dimensional data sets that, for instance, contain non-informative data dimensions or lie along a lower-dimensional manifold. We evaluate SSNL on a wide variety of experiments and show that it generally outperforms contemporary methods used in simulation-based inference, for instance, on a challenging real-world example from astrophysics which models the magnetic field strength of the sun using a solar dynamo model.

We propose a novel algorithm for the support estimation of partially known Gaussian graphical models that incorporates prior information about the underlying graph. In contrast to classical approaches that provide a point estimate based on a maximum likelihood or a maximum a posteriori criterion using (simple) priors on the precision matrix, we consider a prior on the graph and rely on annealed Langevin diffusion to generate samples from the posterior distribution. Since the Langevin sampler requires access to the score function of the underlying graph prior, we use graph neural networks to effectively estimate the score from a graph dataset (either available beforehand or generated from a known distribution). Numerical experiments demonstrate the benefits of our approach.

In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We can increase scalability by implementing the system as a distributed task-allocation system, sharing tasks across many agents. However, this also increases the resource cost of communications and synchronisation, and is difficult to scale. In this paper we present four algorithms to solve these problems. The combination of these algorithms enable each agent to improve their task allocation strategy through reinforcement learning, while changing how much they explore the system in response to how optimal they believe their current strategy is, given their past experience. We focus on distributed agent systems where the agents' behaviours are constrained by resource usage limits, limiting agents to local rather than system-wide knowledge. We evaluate these algorithms in a simulated environment where agents are given a task composed of multiple subtasks that must be allocated to other agents with differing capabilities, to then carry out those tasks. We also simulate real-life system effects such as networking instability. Our solution is shown to solve the task allocation problem to 6.7% of the theoretical optimal within the system configurations considered. It provides 5x better performance recovery over no-knowledge retention approaches when system connectivity is impacted, and is tested against systems up to 100 agents with less than a 9% impact on the algorithms' performance.