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Re-randomization has gained popularity as a tool for experiment-based causal inference due to its superior covariate balance and statistical efficiency compared to classic randomized experiments. However, the basic re-randomization method, known as ReM, and many of its extensions have been deemed sub-optimal as they fail to prioritize covariates that are more strongly associated with potential outcomes. To address this limitation and design more efficient re-randomization procedures, a more precise quantification of covariate heterogeneity and its impact on the causal effect estimator is in a great appeal. This work fills in this gap with a Bayesian criterion for re-randomization and a series of novel re-randomization procedures derived under such a criterion. Both theoretical analyses and numerical studies show that the proposed re-randomization procedures under the Bayesian criterion outperform existing ReM-based procedures significantly in effectively balancing covariates and precisely estimating the unknown causal effect.

Inference principles are postulated within statistics, they are not usually derived from any underlying physical constraints on real world observers. An exception to this rule is that in the context of partially observable information engines decision making can be based solely on physical arguments. An inference principle can be derived from minimization of the lower bound on average dissipation [Phys. Rev. Lett., 124(5), 050601], which is achievable with a quasi-static process. Thermodynamically rational decision strategies can be computed algorithmically with the resulting approach. Here, we use this to study an example of binary decision making under uncertainty that is very simple, yet just interesting enough to be non-trivial: observations are either entirely uninformative, or they carry complete certainty about the variable that needs to be known for successful energy harvesting. Solutions found algorithmically can be expressed in terms of parameterized soft partitions of the observable space. This allows for their interpretation, as well as for the analytical calculation of all quantities that characterize the decision problem and the thermodynamically rational strategies.

Recently, conditional score-based diffusion models have gained significant attention in the field of supervised speech enhancement, yielding state-of-the-art performance. However, these methods may face challenges when generalising to unseen conditions. To address this issue, we introduce an alternative approach that operates in an unsupervised manner, leveraging the generative power of diffusion models. Specifically, in a training phase, a clean speech prior distribution is learnt in the short-time Fourier transform (STFT) domain using score-based diffusion models, allowing it to unconditionally generate clean speech from Gaussian noise. Then, we develop a posterior sampling methodology for speech enhancement by combining the learnt clean speech prior with a noise model for speech signal inference. The noise parameters are simultaneously learnt along with clean speech estimation through an iterative expectationmaximisation (EM) approach. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work exploring diffusion-based generative models for unsupervised speech enhancement, demonstrating promising results compared to a recent variational auto-encoder (VAE)-based unsupervised approach and a state-of-the-art diffusion-based supervised method. It thus opens a new direction for future research in unsupervised speech enhancement.

The supersingular Endomorphism Ring problem is the following: given a supersingular elliptic curve, compute all of its endomorphisms. The presumed hardness of this problem is foundational for isogeny-based cryptography. The One Endomorphism problem only asks to find a single non-scalar endomorphism. We prove that these two problems are equivalent, under probabilistic polynomial time reductions. We prove a number of consequences. First, assuming the hardness of the endomorphism ring problem, the Charles--Goren--Lauter hash function is collision resistant, and the SQIsign identification protocol is sound. Second, the endomorphism ring problem is equivalent to the problem of computing arbitrary isogenies between supersingular elliptic curves, a result previously known only for isogenies of smooth degree. Third, there exists an unconditional probabilistic algorithm to solve the endomorphism ring problem in time O~(sqrt(p)), a result that previously required to assume the generalized Riemann hypothesis. To prove our main result, we introduce a flexible framework for the study of isogeny graphs with additional information. We prove a general and easy-to-use rapid mixing theorem.

Recent advancements in evaluating matrix-exponential functions have opened the doors to the practical use of exponential time-integration methods in numerical weather prediction (NWP). The success of exponential methods in shallow water simulations has led to the question of whether they can be beneficial in a 3D atmospheric model. In this paper, we take the first step forward by evaluating the behavior of exponential time-integration methods in the Navy's compressible deep-atmosphere nonhydrostatic global model (NEPTUNE-Navy Environmental Prediction sysTem Utilizing a Nonhydrostatic Engine). Simulations are conducted on a set of idealized test cases designed to assess key features of a nonhydrostatic model and demonstrate that exponential integrators capture the desired large and small-scale traits, yielding results comparable to those found in the literature. We propose a new upper boundary absorbing layer independent of reference state and shown to be effective in both idealized and real-data simulations. A real-data forecast using an exponential method with full physics is presented, providing a positive outlook for using exponential integrators for NWP.

Nonparametric varying coefficient (NVC) models are useful for modeling time-varying effects on responses that are measured repeatedly for the same subjects. When the number of covariates is moderate or large, it is desirable to perform variable selection from the varying coefficient functions. However, existing methods for variable selection in NVC models either fail to account for within-subject correlations or require the practitioner to specify a parametric form for the correlation structure. In this paper, we introduce the nonparametric varying coefficient spike-and-slab lasso (NVC-SSL) for Bayesian high-dimensional NVC models. Through the introduction of functional random effects, our method allows for flexible modeling of within-subject correlations without needing to specify a parametric covariance function. We further propose several scalable optimization and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. For variable selection, we propose an Expectation Conditional Maximization (ECM) algorithm to rapidly obtain maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates. Our ECM algorithm scales linearly in the total number of observations $N$ and the number of covariates $p$. For uncertainty quantification, we introduce an approximate MCMC algorithm that also scales linearly in both $N$ and $p$. We demonstrate the scalability, variable selection performance, and inferential capabilities of our method through simulations and a real data application. These algorithms are implemented in the publicly available R package NVCSSL on the Comprehensive R Archive Network.

The possibility of dynamically modifying the computational load of neural models at inference time is crucial for on-device processing, where computational power is limited and time-varying. Established approaches for neural model compression exist, but they provide architecturally static models. In this paper, we investigate the use of early-exit architectures, that rely on intermediate exit branches, applied to large-vocabulary speech recognition. This allows for the development of dynamic models that adjust their computational cost to the available resources and recognition performance. Unlike previous works, besides using pre-trained backbones we also train the model from scratch with an early-exit architecture. Experiments on public datasets show that early-exit architectures from scratch not only preserve performance levels when using fewer encoder layers, but also improve task accuracy as compared to using single-exit models or using pre-trained models. Additionally, we investigate an exit selection strategy based on posterior probabilities as an alternative to frame-based entropy.

We consider the problem of sequential change detection, where the goal is to design a scheme for detecting any changes in a parameter or functional $\theta$ of the data stream distribution that has small detection delay, but guarantees control on the frequency of false alarms in the absence of changes. In this paper, we describe a simple reduction from sequential change detection to sequential estimation using confidence sequences: we begin a new $(1-\alpha)$-confidence sequence at each time step, and proclaim a change when the intersection of all active confidence sequences becomes empty. We prove that the average run length is at least $1/\alpha$, resulting in a change detection scheme with minimal structural assumptions~(thus allowing for possibly dependent observations, and nonparametric distribution classes), but strong guarantees. Our approach bears an interesting parallel with the reduction from change detection to sequential testing of Lorden (1971) and the e-detector of Shin et al. (2022).

We present a novel computational model for the dynamics of alveolar recruitment/derecruitment (RD), which reproduces the underlying characteristics typically observed in injured lungs. The basic idea is a pressure- and time-dependent variation of the stress-free reference volume in reduced dimensional viscoelastic elements representing the acinar tissue. We choose a variable reference volume triggered by critical opening and closing pressures in a time-dependent manner from a straightforward mechanical point of view. In the case of (partially and progressively) collapsing alveolar structures, the volume available for expansion during breathing reduces and vice versa, eventually enabling consideration of alveolar collapse and reopening in our model. We further introduce a method for patient-specific determination of the underlying critical parameters of the new alveolar RD dynamics when integrated into the tissue elements, referred to as terminal units, of a spatially resolved physics-based lung model that simulates the human respiratory system in an anatomically correct manner. Relevant patient-specific parameters of the terminal units are herein determined based on medical image data and the macromechanical behavior of the lung during artificial ventilation. We test the whole modeling approach for a real-life scenario by applying it to the clinical data of a mechanically ventilated patient. The generated lung model is capable of reproducing clinical measurements such as tidal volume and pleural pressure during various ventilation maneuvers. We conclude that this new model is an important step toward personalized treatment of ARDS patients by considering potentially harmful mechanisms - such as cyclic RD and overdistension - and might help in the development of relevant protective ventilation strategies to reduce ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI).