Remarkable progress in the development of Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) models positions them to become competitive with traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Indeed, a wide number of DLWP architectures -- based on various backbones, including U-Net, Transformer, Graph Neural Network (GNN), and Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) -- have demonstrated their potential at forecasting atmospheric states. However, due to differences in training protocols, forecast horizons, and data choices, it remains unclear which (if any) of these methods and architectures are most suitable for weather forecasting and for future model development. Here, we step back and provide a detailed empirical analysis, under controlled conditions, comparing and contrasting the most prominent DLWP models, along with their backbones. We accomplish this by predicting synthetic two-dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes and real-world global weather dynamics. In terms of accuracy, memory consumption, and runtime, our results illustrate various tradeoffs. For example, on synthetic data, we observe favorable performance of FNO; and on the real-world WeatherBench dataset, our results demonstrate the suitability of ConvLSTM and SwinTransformer for short-to-mid-ranged forecasts. For long-ranged weather rollouts of up to 365 days, we observe superior stability and physical soundness in architectures that formulate a spherical data representation, i.e., GraphCast and Spherical FNO. In addition, we observe that all of these model backbones "saturate," i.e., none of them exhibit so-called neural scaling, which highlights an important direction for future work on these and related models. The code is available at //github.com/amazon-science/dlwp-benchmark.
In the Fully Sharded Data Parallel (FSDP) training pipeline, collective operations can be interleaved to maximize the communication/computation overlap. In this scenario, outstanding operations such as Allgather and Reduce-Scatter can compete for the injection bandwidth and create pipeline bubbles. To address this problem, we propose a novel bandwidth-optimal Allgather collective algorithm that leverages hardware multicast. We use multicast to build a constant-time reliable Broadcast protocol, a building block for constructing an optimal Allgather schedule. Our Allgather algorithm achieves 2x traffic reduction on a 188-node testbed. To free the host side from running the protocol, we employ SmartNIC offloading. We extract the parallelism in our Allgather algorithm and map it to a SmartNIC specialized for hiding the cost of data movement. We show that our SmartNIC-offloaded collective progress engine can scale to the next generation of 1.6 Tbit/s links.
The remarkable performance achieved by Large Language Models (LLM) has driven research efforts to leverage them for a wide range of tasks and input modalities. In speech-to-text (S2T) tasks, the emerging solution consists of projecting the output of the encoder of a Speech Foundational Model (SFM) into the LLM embedding space through an adapter module. However, no work has yet investigated how much the downstream-task performance depends on each component (SFM, adapter, LLM) nor whether the best design of the adapter depends on the chosen SFM and LLM. To fill this gap, we evaluate the combination of 5 adapter modules, 2 LLMs (Mistral and Llama), and 2 SFMs (Whisper and SeamlessM4T) on two widespread S2T tasks, namely Automatic Speech Recognition and Speech Translation. Our results demonstrate that the SFM plays a pivotal role in downstream performance, while the adapter choice has moderate impact and depends on the SFM and LLM.
This study explores the effectiveness of Large Language Models in meal planning, focusing on their ability to identify and decompose compound ingredients. We evaluated three models-GPT-4o, Llama-3 (70b), and Mixtral (8x7b)-to assess their proficiency in recognizing and breaking down complex ingredient combinations. Preliminary results indicate that while Llama-3 (70b) and GPT-4o excels in accurate decomposition, all models encounter difficulties with identifying essential elements like seasonings and oils. Despite strong overall performance, variations in accuracy and completeness were observed across models. These findings underscore LLMs' potential to enhance personalized nutrition but highlight the need for further refinement in ingredient decomposition. Future research should address these limitations to improve nutritional recommendations and health outcomes.
Data assimilation (DA) combines partial observations with a dynamical model to improve state estimation. Filter-based DA uses only past and present data and is the prerequisite for real-time forecasts. Smoother-based DA exploits both past and future observations. It aims to fill in missing data, provide more accurate estimations, and develop high-quality datasets. However, the standard smoothing procedure requires using all historical state estimations, which is storage-demanding, especially for high-dimensional systems. This paper develops an adaptive-lag online smoother for a large class of complex dynamical systems with strong nonlinear and non-Gaussian features, which has important applications to many real-world problems. The adaptive lag allows the DA to utilize only observations within a nearby window, significantly reducing computational storage. Online lag adjustment is essential for tackling turbulent systems, where temporal autocorrelation varies significantly over time due to intermittency, extreme events, and nonlinearity. Based on the uncertainty reduction in the estimated state, an information criterion is developed to systematically determine the adaptive lag. Notably, the mathematical structure of these systems facilitates the use of closed analytic formulae to calculate the online smoother and the adaptive lag, avoiding empirical tunings as in ensemble-based DA methods. The adaptive online smoother is applied to studying three important scientific problems. First, it helps detect online causal relationships between state variables. Second, its advantage of computational storage is illustrated via Lagrangian DA, a high-dimensional nonlinear problem. Finally, the adaptive smoother advances online parameter estimation with partial observations, emphasizing the role of the observed extreme events in accelerating convergence.
Storytelling is a fundamental aspect of human communication, relying heavily on creativity to produce narratives that are novel, appropriate, and surprising. While large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated the ability to generate high-quality stories, their creative capabilities remain underexplored. Previous research has either focused on creativity tests requiring short responses or primarily compared model performance in story generation to that of professional writers. However, the question of whether LLMs exhibit creativity in writing short stories on par with the average human remains unanswered. In this work, we conduct a systematic analysis of creativity in short story generation across LLMs and everyday people. Using a five-sentence creative story task, commonly employed in psychology to assess human creativity, we automatically evaluate model- and human-generated stories across several dimensions of creativity, including novelty, surprise, and diversity. Our findings reveal that while LLMs can generate stylistically complex stories, they tend to fall short in terms of creativity when compared to average human writers.
The success of AI models relies on the availability of large, diverse, and high-quality datasets, which can be challenging to obtain due to data scarcity, privacy concerns, and high costs. Synthetic data has emerged as a promising solution by generating artificial data that mimics real-world patterns. This paper provides an overview of synthetic data research, discussing its applications, challenges, and future directions. We present empirical evidence from prior art to demonstrate its effectiveness and highlight the importance of ensuring its factuality, fidelity, and unbiasedness. We emphasize the need for responsible use of synthetic data to build more powerful, inclusive, and trustworthy language models.
This article presents the affordances that Generative Artificial Intelligence can have in disinformation context, one of the major threats to our digitalized society. We present a research framework to generate customized agent-based social networks for disinformation simulations that would enable understanding and evaluation of the phenomena whilst discussing open challenges.
Deployment of Internet of Things (IoT) devices and Data Fusion techniques have gained popularity in public and government domains. This usually requires capturing and consolidating data from multiple sources. As datasets do not necessarily originate from identical sensors, fused data typically results in a complex data problem. Because military is investigating how heterogeneous IoT devices can aid processes and tasks, we investigate a multi-sensor approach. Moreover, we propose a signal to image encoding approach to transform information (signal) to integrate (fuse) data from IoT wearable devices to an image which is invertible and easier to visualize supporting decision making. Furthermore, we investigate the challenge of enabling an intelligent identification and detection operation and demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed Deep Learning and Anomaly Detection models that can support future application that utilizes hand gesture data from wearable devices.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently become increasingly popular due to their ability to learn complex systems of relations or interactions arising in a broad spectrum of problems ranging from biology and particle physics to social networks and recommendation systems. Despite the plethora of different models for deep learning on graphs, few approaches have been proposed thus far for dealing with graphs that present some sort of dynamic nature (e.g. evolving features or connectivity over time). In this paper, we present Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs), a generic, efficient framework for deep learning on dynamic graphs represented as sequences of timed events. Thanks to a novel combination of memory modules and graph-based operators, TGNs are able to significantly outperform previous approaches being at the same time more computationally efficient. We furthermore show that several previous models for learning on dynamic graphs can be cast as specific instances of our framework. We perform a detailed ablation study of different components of our framework and devise the best configuration that achieves state-of-the-art performance on several transductive and inductive prediction tasks for dynamic graphs.
Automatic KB completion for commonsense knowledge graphs (e.g., ATOMIC and ConceptNet) poses unique challenges compared to the much studied conventional knowledge bases (e.g., Freebase). Commonsense knowledge graphs use free-form text to represent nodes, resulting in orders of magnitude more nodes compared to conventional KBs (18x more nodes in ATOMIC compared to Freebase (FB15K-237)). Importantly, this implies significantly sparser graph structures - a major challenge for existing KB completion methods that assume densely connected graphs over a relatively smaller set of nodes. In this paper, we present novel KB completion models that can address these challenges by exploiting the structural and semantic context of nodes. Specifically, we investigate two key ideas: (1) learning from local graph structure, using graph convolutional networks and automatic graph densification and (2) transfer learning from pre-trained language models to knowledge graphs for enhanced contextual representation of knowledge. We describe our method to incorporate information from both these sources in a joint model and provide the first empirical results for KB completion on ATOMIC and evaluation with ranking metrics on ConceptNet. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of language model representations in boosting link prediction performance and the advantages of learning from local graph structure (+1.5 points in MRR for ConceptNet) when training on subgraphs for computational efficiency. Further analysis on model predictions shines light on the types of commonsense knowledge that language models capture well.