When testing a statistical hypothesis, is it legitimate to deliberate on the basis of initial data about whether and how to collect further data? Game-theoretic probability's fundamental principle for testing by betting says yes, provided that you are testing by betting and do not risk more capital than initially committed. Standard statistical theory uses Cournot's principle, which does not allow such optional continuation. Cournot's principle can be extended to allow optional continuation when testing is carried out by multiplying likelihood ratios, but the extension lacks the simplicity and generality of testing by betting. Game-theoretic probability can also help us with descriptive data analysis. To obtain a purely and honestly descriptive analysis using competing probability distributions, we have them bet against each other using the Kelly principle. The place of confidence intervals is then taken by a sets of distributions that do relatively well in the competition. In the simplest implementation, these sets coincide with R. A. Fisher's likelihood intervals.
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Vintage factor analysis is one important type of factor analysis that aims to first find a low-dimensional representation of the original data, and then to seek a rotation such that the rotated low-dimensional representation is scientifically meaningful. Perhaps the most widely used vintage factor analysis is the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) followed by the varimax rotation. Despite its popularity, little theoretical guarantee can be provided mainly because varimax rotation requires to solve a non-convex optimization over the set of orthogonal matrices. In this paper, we propose a deflation varimax procedure that solves each row of an orthogonal matrix sequentially. In addition to its net computational gain and flexibility, we are able to fully establish theoretical guarantees for the proposed procedure in a broad context. Adopting this new varimax approach as the second step after PCA, we further analyze this two step procedure under a general class of factor models. Our results show that it estimates the factor loading matrix in the optimal rate when the signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) is moderate or large. In the low SNR regime, we offer possible improvement over using PCA and the deflation procedure when the additive noise under the factor model is structured. The modified procedure is shown to be optimal in all SNR regimes. Our theory is valid for finite sample and allows the number of the latent factors to grow with the sample size as well as the ambient dimension to grow with, or even exceed, the sample size. Extensive simulation and real data analysis further corroborate our theoretical findings.
Engineers are often faced with the decision to select the most appropriate model for simulating the behavior of engineered systems, among a candidate set of models. Experimental monitoring data can generate significant value by supporting engineers toward such decisions. Such data can be leveraged within a Bayesian model updating process, enabling the uncertainty-aware calibration of any candidate model. The model selection task can subsequently be cast into a problem of decision-making under uncertainty, where one seeks to select the model that yields an optimal balance between the reward associated with model precision, in terms of recovering target Quantities of Interest (QoI), and the cost of each model, in terms of complexity and compute time. In this work, we examine the model selection task by means of Bayesian decision theory, under the prism of availability of models of various refinements, and thus varying levels of fidelity. In doing so, we offer an exemplary application of this framework on the IMAC-MVUQ Round-Robin Challenge. Numerical investigations show various outcomes of model selection depending on the target QoI.
The accuracy of solving partial differential equations (PDEs) on coarse grids is greatly affected by the choice of discretization schemes. In this work, we propose to learn time integration schemes based on neural networks which satisfy three distinct sets of mathematical constraints, i.e., unconstrained, semi-constrained with the root condition, and fully-constrained with both root and consistency conditions. We focus on the learning of 3-step linear multistep methods, which we subsequently applied to solve three model PDEs, i.e., the one-dimensional heat equation, the one-dimensional wave equation, and the one-dimensional Burgers' equation. The results show that the prediction error of the learned fully-constrained scheme is close to that of the Runge-Kutta method and Adams-Bashforth method. Compared to the traditional methods, the learned unconstrained and semi-constrained schemes significantly reduce the prediction error on coarse grids. On a grid that is 4 times coarser than the reference grid, the mean square error shows a reduction of up to an order of magnitude for some of the heat equation cases, and a substantial improvement in phase prediction for the wave equation. On a 32 times coarser grid, the mean square error for the Burgers' equation can be reduced by up to 35% to 40%.
In recent decades, a growing number of discoveries in fields of mathematics have been assisted by computer algorithms, primarily for exploring large parameter spaces that humans would take too long to investigate. As computers and algorithms become more powerful, an intriguing possibility arises - the interplay between human intuition and computer algorithms can lead to discoveries of novel mathematical concepts that would otherwise remain elusive. To realize this perspective, we have developed a massively parallel computer algorithm that discovers an unprecedented number of continued fraction formulas for fundamental mathematical constants. The sheer number of formulas discovered by the algorithm unveils a novel mathematical structure that we call the conservative matrix field. Such matrix fields (1) unify thousands of existing formulas, (2) generate infinitely many new formulas, and most importantly, (3) lead to unexpected relations between different mathematical constants, including multiple integer values of the Riemann zeta function. Conservative matrix fields also enable new mathematical proofs of irrationality. In particular, we can use them to generalize the celebrated proof by Ap\'ery for the irrationality of $\zeta(3)$. Utilizing thousands of personal computers worldwide, our computer-supported research strategy demonstrates the power of experimental mathematics, highlighting the prospects of large-scale computational approaches to tackle longstanding open problems and discover unexpected connections across diverse fields of science.
Various simulation-based and analytical methods have been developed to evaluate the seismic fragilities of individual structures. However, a community's seismic safety and resilience are substantially affected by network reliability, determined not only by component fragilities but also by network topology and commodity/information flows. However, seismic reliability analyses of networks often encounter significant challenges due to complex network topologies, interdependencies among ground motions, and low failure probabilities. This paper proposes to overcome these challenges by a variance-reduction method for network fragility analysis using subset simulation. The binary network limit-state function in the subset simulation is reformulated into more informative piecewise continuous functions. The proposed limit-state functions quantify the proximity of each sample to a potential network failure domain, thereby enabling the construction of specialized intermediate failure events, which can be utilized in subset simulation and other sequential Monte Carlo approaches. Moreover, by discovering an implicit connection between intermediate failure events and seismic intensity, we propose a technique to obtain the entire network fragility curve with a single execution of specialized subset simulation. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively evaluate system-level fragility for large-scale networks.
PCA-Net is a recently proposed neural operator architecture which combines principal component analysis (PCA) with neural networks to approximate operators between infinite-dimensional function spaces. The present work develops approximation theory for this approach, improving and significantly extending previous work in this direction: First, a novel universal approximation result is derived, under minimal assumptions on the underlying operator and the data-generating distribution. Then, two potential obstacles to efficient operator learning with PCA-Net are identified, and made precise through lower complexity bounds; the first relates to the complexity of the output distribution, measured by a slow decay of the PCA eigenvalues. The other obstacle relates to the inherent complexity of the space of operators between infinite-dimensional input and output spaces, resulting in a rigorous and quantifiable statement of a "curse of parametric complexity", an infinite-dimensional analogue of the well-known curse of dimensionality encountered in high-dimensional approximation problems. In addition to these lower bounds, upper complexity bounds are finally derived. A suitable smoothness criterion is shown to ensure an algebraic decay of the PCA eigenvalues. Furthermore, it is shown that PCA-Net can overcome the general curse for specific operators of interest, arising from the Darcy flow and the Navier-Stokes equations.
We present an algorithm for computing melting points by autonomously learning from coexistence simulations in the NPT ensemble. Given the interatomic interaction model, the method makes decisions regarding the number of atoms and temperature at which to conduct simulations, and based on the collected data predicts the melting point along with the uncertainty, which can be systematically improved with more data. We demonstrate how incorporating physical models of the solid-liquid coexistence evolution enhances the algorithm's accuracy and enables optimal decision-making to effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. To validate our approach, we compare the results of 20 melting point calculations from the literature to the results of our calculations, all conducted with same interatomic potentials. Remarkably, we observe significant deviations in about one-third of the cases, underscoring the need for accurate and reliable algorithms for materials property calculations.
Approximation of high-dimensional functions is a problem in many scientific fields that is only feasible if advantageous structural properties, such as sparsity in a given basis, can be exploited. A relevant tool for analysing sparse approximations is Stechkin's lemma. In its standard form, however, this lemma does not allow to explain convergence rates for a wide range of relevant function classes. This work presents a new weighted version of Stechkin's lemma that improves the best $n$-term rates for weighted $\ell^p$-spaces and associated function classes such as Sobolev or Besov spaces. For the class of holomorphic functions, which occur as solutions of common high-dimensional parameter-dependent PDEs, we recover exponential rates that are not directly obtainable with Stechkin's lemma. Since weighted $\ell^p$-summability induces weighted sparsity, compressed sensing algorithms can be used to approximate the associated functions. To break the curse of dimensionality, which these algorithms suffer, we recall that sparse approximations can be encoded efficiently using tensor networks with sparse component tensors. We also demonstrate that weighted $\ell^p$-summability induces low ranks, which motivates a second tensor train format with low ranks and a single weighted sparse core. We present new alternating algorithms for best $n$-term approximation in both formats. To analyse the sample complexity for the new model classes, we derive a novel result of independent interest that allows the transfer of the restricted isometry property from one set to another sufficiently close set. Although they lead up to the analysis of our final model class, our contributions on weighted Stechkin and the restricted isometry property are of independent interest and can be read independently.
Complexity is a fundamental concept underlying statistical learning theory that aims to inform generalization performance. Parameter count, while successful in low-dimensional settings, is not well-justified for overparameterized settings when the number of parameters is more than the number of training samples. We revisit complexity measures based on Rissanen's principle of minimum description length (MDL) and define a novel MDL-based complexity (MDL-COMP) that remains valid for overparameterized models. MDL-COMP is defined via an optimality criterion over the encodings induced by a good Ridge estimator class. We provide an extensive theoretical characterization of MDL-COMP for linear models and kernel methods and show that it is not just a function of parameter count, but rather a function of the singular values of the design or the kernel matrix and the signal-to-noise ratio. For a linear model with $n$ observations, $d$ parameters, and i.i.d. Gaussian predictors, MDL-COMP scales linearly with $d$ when $d<n$, but the scaling is exponentially smaller -- $\log d$ for $d>n$. For kernel methods, we show that MDL-COMP informs minimax in-sample error, and can decrease as the dimensionality of the input increases. We also prove that MDL-COMP upper bounds the in-sample mean squared error (MSE). Via an array of simulations and real-data experiments, we show that a data-driven Prac-MDL-COMP informs hyper-parameter tuning for optimizing test MSE with ridge regression in limited data settings, sometimes improving upon cross-validation and (always) saving computational costs. Finally, our findings also suggest that the recently observed double decent phenomenons in overparameterized models might be a consequence of the choice of non-ideal estimators.
We propose a novel surrogate modelling approach to efficiently and accurately approximate the response of complex dynamical systems driven by time-varying exogenous excitations over extended time periods. Our approach, namely manifold nonlinear autoregressive modelling with exogenous input (mNARX), involves constructing a problem-specific exogenous input manifold that is optimal for constructing autoregressive surrogates. The manifold, which forms the core of mNARX, is constructed incrementally by incorporating the physics of the system, as well as prior expert- and domain- knowledge. Because mNARX decomposes the full problem into a series of smaller sub-problems, each with a lower complexity than the original, it scales well with the complexity of the problem, both in terms of training and evaluation costs of the final surrogate. Furthermore, mNARX synergizes well with traditional dimensionality reduction techniques, making it highly suitable for modelling dynamical systems with high-dimensional exogenous inputs, a class of problems that is typically challenging to solve. Since domain knowledge is particularly abundant in physical systems, such as those found in civil and mechanical engineering, mNARX is well suited for these applications. We demonstrate that mNARX outperforms traditional autoregressive surrogates in predicting the response of a classical coupled spring-mass system excited by a one-dimensional random excitation. Additionally, we show that mNARX is well suited for emulating very high-dimensional time- and state-dependent systems, even when affected by active controllers, by surrogating the dynamics of a realistic aero-servo-elastic onshore wind turbine simulator. In general, our results demonstrate that mNARX offers promising prospects for modelling complex dynamical systems, in terms of accuracy and efficiency.
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