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In the study of sparse stochastic block models (SBMs) one often needs to analyze a distributional recursion, known as the belief propagation (BP) recursion. Uniqueness of the fixed point of this recursion implies several results about the SBM, including optimal recovery algorithms for SBM (Mossel et al. (2016)) and SBM with side information (Mossel and Xu (2016)), and a formula for SBM mutual information (Abbe et al. (2021)). The 2-community case corresponds to an Ising model, for which Yu and Polyanskiy (2022) established uniqueness for all cases. In this paper we analyze the $q$-ary Potts model, i.e., broadcasting of $q$-ary spins on a Galton-Watson tree with expected offspring degree $d$ through Potts channels with second-largest eigenvalue $\lambda$. We allow the intermediate vertices to be observed through noisy channels (side information). We prove that BP uniqueness holds with and without side information when $d\lambda^2 \ge 1 + C \max\{\lambda, q^{-1}\}\log q$ for some absolute constant $C>0$ independent of $q,\lambda,d$. For large $q$ and $\lambda = o(1/\log q)$, this is asymptotically achieving the Kesten-Stigum threshold $d\lambda^2=1$. These results imply mutual information formulas and optimal recovery algorithms for the $q$-community SBM in the corresponding ranges. For $q\ge 4$, Sly (2011); Mossel et al. (2022) showed that there exist choices of $q,\lambda,d$ below Kesten-Stigum (i.e. $d\lambda^2 < 1$) but reconstruction is possible. Somewhat surprisingly, we show that in such regimes BP uniqueness does not hold at least in the presence of weak side information. Our technical tool is a theory of $q$-ary symmetric channels, that we initiate here, generalizing the classical and widely-utilized information-theoretic characterization of BMS (binary memoryless symmetric) channels.

The concepts of Bayesian prediction, model comparison, and model selection have developed significantly over the last decade. As a result, the Bayesian community has witnessed a rapid growth in theoretical and applied contributions to building and selecting predictive models. Projection predictive inference in particular has shown promise to this end, finding application across a broad range of fields. It is less prone to over-fitting than na\"ive selection based purely on cross-validation or information criteria performance metrics, and has been known to out-perform other methods in terms of predictive performance. We survey the core concept and contemporary contributions to projection predictive inference, and present a safe, efficient, and modular workflow for prediction-oriented model selection therein. We also provide an interpretation of the projected posteriors achieved by projection predictive inference in terms of their limitations in causal settings.

Context. Algorithmic racism is the term used to describe the behavior of technological solutions that constrains users based on their ethnicity. Lately, various data-driven software systems have been reported to discriminate against Black people, either for the use of biased data sets or due to the prejudice propagated by software professionals in their code. As a result, Black people are experiencing disadvantages in accessing technology-based services, such as housing, banking, and law enforcement. Goal. This study aims to explore algorithmic racism from the perspective of software professionals. Method. A survey questionnaire was applied to explore the understanding of software practitioners on algorithmic racism, and data analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics and coding techniques. Results. We obtained answers from a sample of 73 software professionals discussing their understanding and perspectives on algorithmic racism in software development. Our results demonstrate that the effects of algorithmic racism are well-known among practitioners. However, there is no consensus on how the problem can be effectively addressed in software engineering. In this paper, some solutions to the problem are proposed based on the professionals' narratives. Conclusion. Combining technical and social strategies, including training on structural racism for software professionals, is the most promising way to address the algorithmic racism problem and its effects on the software solutions delivered to our society.

This paper studies inference in two-stage randomized experiments under covariate-adaptive randomization. In the initial stage of this experimental design, clusters (e.g., households, schools, or graph partitions) are stratified and randomly assigned to control or treatment groups based on cluster-level covariates. Subsequently, an independent second-stage design is carried out, wherein units within each treated cluster are further stratified and randomly assigned to either control or treatment groups, based on individual-level covariates. Under the homogeneous partial interference assumption, I establish conditions under which the proposed difference-in-"average of averages" estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal for the corresponding average primary and spillover effects and develop consistent estimators of their asymptotic variances. Combining these results establishes the asymptotic validity of tests based on these estimators. My findings suggest that ignoring covariate information in the design stage can result in efficiency loss, and commonly used inference methods that ignore or improperly use covariate information can lead to either conservative or invalid inference. Finally, I apply these results to studying optimal use of covariate information under covariate-adaptive randomization in large samples, and demonstrate that a specific generalized matched-pair design achieves minimum asymptotic variance for each proposed estimator. The practical relevance of the theoretical results is illustrated through a simulation study and an empirical application.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a developmental condition that presents significant challenges in social interaction, communication, and behavior. Early intervention plays a pivotal role in enhancing cognitive abilities and reducing autistic symptoms in children with ASD. Numerous clinical studies have highlighted distinctive facial characteristics that distinguish ASD children from typically developing (TD) children. In this study, we propose a practical solution for ASD screening using facial images using YoloV8 model. By employing YoloV8, a deep learning technique, on a dataset of Kaggle, we achieved exceptional results. Our model achieved a remarkable 89.64% accuracy in classification and an F1-score of 0.89. Our findings provide support for the clinical observations regarding facial feature discrepancies between children with ASD. The high F1-score obtained demonstrates the potential of deep learning models in screening children with ASD. We conclude that the newest version of YoloV8 which is usually used for object detection can be used for classification problem of Austistic and Non-autistic images.

Selective inference methods are developed for group lasso estimators for use with a wide class of distributions and loss functions. The method includes the use of exponential family distributions, as well as quasi-likelihood modeling for overdispersed count data, for example, and allows for categorical or grouped covariates as well as continuous covariates. A randomized group-regularized optimization problem is studied. The added randomization allows us to construct a post-selection likelihood which we show to be adequate for selective inference when conditioning on the event of the selection of the grouped covariates. This likelihood also provides a selective point estimator, accounting for the selection by the group lasso. Confidence regions for the regression parameters in the selected model take the form of Wald-type regions and are shown to have bounded volume. The selective inference method for grouped lasso is illustrated on data from the national health and nutrition examination survey while simulations showcase its behaviour and favorable comparison with other methods.

The estimation of unknown parameters in simulations, also known as calibration, is crucial for practical management of epidemics and prediction of pandemic risk. A simple yet widely used approach is to estimate the parameters by minimizing the sum of the squared distances between actual observations and simulation outputs. It is shown in this paper that this method is inefficient, particularly when the epidemic models are developed based on certain simplifications of reality, also known as imperfect models which are commonly used in practice. To address this issue, a new estimator is introduced that is asymptotically consistent, has a smaller estimation variance than the least squares estimator, and achieves the semiparametric efficiency. Numerical studies are performed to examine the finite sample performance. The proposed method is applied to the analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic for 20 countries based on the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model with both deterministic and stochastic simulations. The estimation of the parameters, including the basic reproduction number and the average incubation period, reveal the risk of disease outbreaks in each country and provide insights to the design of public health interventions.

Invariant approaches have been remarkably successful in tackling the problem of domain generalization, where the objective is to perform inference on data distributions different from those used in training. In our work, we investigate whether it is possible to leverage domain information from the unseen test samples themselves. We propose a domain-adaptive approach consisting of two steps: a) we first learn a discriminative domain embedding from unsupervised training examples, and b) use this domain embedding as supplementary information to build a domain-adaptive model, that takes both the input as well as its domain into account while making predictions. For unseen domains, our method simply uses few unlabelled test examples to construct the domain embedding. This enables adaptive classification on any unseen domain. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on various domain generalization benchmarks. In addition, we introduce the first real-world, large-scale domain generalization benchmark, Geo-YFCC, containing 1.1M samples over 40 training, 7 validation, and 15 test domains, orders of magnitude larger than prior work. We show that the existing approaches either do not scale to this dataset or underperform compared to the simple baseline of training a model on the union of data from all training domains. In contrast, our approach achieves a significant improvement.

The growing energy and performance costs of deep learning have driven the community to reduce the size of neural networks by selectively pruning components. Similarly to their biological counterparts, sparse networks generalize just as well, if not better than, the original dense networks. Sparsity can reduce the memory footprint of regular networks to fit mobile devices, as well as shorten training time for ever growing networks. In this paper, we survey prior work on sparsity in deep learning and provide an extensive tutorial of sparsification for both inference and training. We describe approaches to remove and add elements of neural networks, different training strategies to achieve model sparsity, and mechanisms to exploit sparsity in practice. Our work distills ideas from more than 300 research papers and provides guidance to practitioners who wish to utilize sparsity today, as well as to researchers whose goal is to push the frontier forward. We include the necessary background on mathematical methods in sparsification, describe phenomena such as early structure adaptation, the intricate relations between sparsity and the training process, and show techniques for achieving acceleration on real hardware. We also define a metric of pruned parameter efficiency that could serve as a baseline for comparison of different sparse networks. We close by speculating on how sparsity can improve future workloads and outline major open problems in the field.

This work considers the question of how convenient access to copious data impacts our ability to learn causal effects and relations. In what ways is learning causality in the era of big data different from -- or the same as -- the traditional one? To answer this question, this survey provides a comprehensive and structured review of both traditional and frontier methods in learning causality and relations along with the connections between causality and machine learning. This work points out on a case-by-case basis how big data facilitates, complicates, or motivates each approach.