Customer behavior is often assumed to follow weak rationality, which implies that adding a product to an assortment will not increase the choice probability of another product in that assortment. However, an increasing amount of research has revealed that customers are not necessarily rational when making decisions. In this paper, we propose a new nonparametric choice model that relaxes this assumption and can model a wider range of customer behavior, such as decoy effects between products. In this model, each customer type is associated with a binary decision tree, which represents a decision process for making a purchase based on checking for the existence of specific products in the assortment. Together with a probability distribution over customer types, we show that the resulting model -- a decision forest -- is able to represent any customer choice model, including models that are inconsistent with weak rationality. We theoretically characterize the depth of the forest needed to fit a data set of historical assortments and prove that with high probability, a forest whose depth scales logarithmically in the number of assortments is sufficient to fit most data sets. We also propose two practical algorithms -- one based on column generation and one based on random sampling -- for estimating such models from data. Using synthetic data and real transaction data exhibiting non-rational behavior, we show that the model outperforms both rational and non-rational benchmark models in out-of-sample predictive ability.
To interpret uncertainty estimates from differentiable probabilistic models, recent work has proposed generating Counterfactual Latent Uncertainty Explanations (CLUEs). However, for a single input, such approaches could output a variety of explanations due to the lack of constraints placed on the explanation. Here we augment the original CLUE approach, to provide what we call $\delta$-CLUE. CLUE indicates $\it{one}$ way to change an input, while remaining on the data manifold, such that the model becomes more confident about its prediction. We instead return a $\it{set}$ of plausible CLUEs: multiple, diverse inputs that are within a $\delta$ ball of the original input in latent space, all yielding confident predictions.
We prove that for any planar convex body C there is a positive integer m with the property that any finite point set P in the plane can be three-colored such that there is no translate of C containing at least m points of P, all of the same color. As a part of the proof, we show a strengthening of the Erd\H{o}s-Sands-Sauer-Woodrow conjecture. Surprisingly, the proof also relies on the two dimensional case of the Illumination conjecture.
We propose a theoretical study of two realistic estimators of conditional distribution functions and conditional quantiles using random forests. The estimation process uses the bootstrap samples generated from the original dataset when constructing the forest. Bootstrap samples are reused to define the first estimator, while the second requires only the original sample, once the forest has been built. We prove that both proposed estimators of the conditional distribution functions are consistent uniformly a.s. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first proof of consistency including the bootstrap part. We also illustrate the estimation procedures on a numerical example.
Pictures of everyday life are inherently multi-label in nature. Hence, multi-label classification is commonly used to analyze their content. In typical multi-label datasets, each picture contains only a few positive labels, and many negative ones. This positive-negative imbalance can result in under-emphasizing gradients from positive labels during training, leading to poor accuracy. In this paper, we introduce a novel asymmetric loss ("ASL"), that operates differently on positive and negative samples. The loss dynamically down-weights the importance of easy negative samples, causing the optimization process to focus more on the positive samples, and also enables to discard mislabeled negative samples. We demonstrate how ASL leads to a more "balanced" network, with increased average probabilities for positive samples, and show how this balanced network is translated to better mAP scores, compared to commonly used losses. Furthermore, we offer a method that can dynamically adjust the level of asymmetry throughout the training. With ASL, we reach new state-of-the-art results on three common multi-label datasets, including achieving 86.6% on MS-COCO. We also demonstrate ASL applicability for other tasks such as fine-grain single-label classification and object detection. ASL is effective, easy to implement, and does not increase the training time or complexity. Implementation is available at: //github.com/Alibaba-MIIL/ASL.
In order to avoid the curse of dimensionality, frequently encountered in Big Data analysis, there was a vast development in the field of linear and nonlinear dimension reduction techniques in recent years. These techniques (sometimes referred to as manifold learning) assume that the scattered input data is lying on a lower dimensional manifold, thus the high dimensionality problem can be overcome by learning the lower dimensionality behavior. However, in real life applications, data is often very noisy. In this work, we propose a method to approximate $\mathcal{M}$ a $d$-dimensional $C^{m+1}$ smooth submanifold of $\mathbb{R}^n$ ($d \ll n$) based upon noisy scattered data points (i.e., a data cloud). We assume that the data points are located "near" the lower dimensional manifold and suggest a non-linear moving least-squares projection on an approximating $d$-dimensional manifold. Under some mild assumptions, the resulting approximant is shown to be infinitely smooth and of high approximation order (i.e., $O(h^{m+1})$, where $h$ is the fill distance and $m$ is the degree of the local polynomial approximation). The method presented here assumes no analytic knowledge of the approximated manifold and the approximation algorithm is linear in the large dimension $n$. Furthermore, the approximating manifold can serve as a framework to perform operations directly on the high dimensional data in a computationally efficient manner. This way, the preparatory step of dimension reduction, which induces distortions to the data, can be avoided altogether.
Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) has become a popular method for scalable Bayesian inference. These methods are based on sampling a discrete-time approximation to a continuous time process, such as the Langevin diffusion. When applied to distributions defined on a constrained space, such as the simplex, the time-discretisation error can dominate when we are near the boundary of the space. We demonstrate that while current SGMCMC methods for the simplex perform well in certain cases, they struggle with sparse simplex spaces; when many of the components are close to zero. However, most popular large-scale applications of Bayesian inference on simplex spaces, such as network or topic models, are sparse. We argue that this poor performance is due to the biases of SGMCMC caused by the discretization error. To get around this, we propose the stochastic CIR process, which removes all discretization error and we prove that samples from the stochastic CIR process are asymptotically unbiased. Use of the stochastic CIR process within a SGMCMC algorithm is shown to give substantially better performance for a topic model and a Dirichlet process mixture model than existing SGMCMC approaches.
Deep learning is the mainstream technique for many machine learning tasks, including image recognition, machine translation, speech recognition, and so on. It has outperformed conventional methods in various fields and achieved great successes. Unfortunately, the understanding on how it works remains unclear. It has the central importance to lay down the theoretic foundation for deep learning. In this work, we give a geometric view to understand deep learning: we show that the fundamental principle attributing to the success is the manifold structure in data, namely natural high dimensional data concentrates close to a low-dimensional manifold, deep learning learns the manifold and the probability distribution on it. We further introduce the concepts of rectified linear complexity for deep neural network measuring its learning capability, rectified linear complexity of an embedding manifold describing the difficulty to be learned. Then we show for any deep neural network with fixed architecture, there exists a manifold that cannot be learned by the network. Finally, we propose to apply optimal mass transportation theory to control the probability distribution in the latent space.
In this paper, we propose a listwise approach for constructing user-specific rankings in recommendation systems in a collaborative fashion. We contrast the listwise approach to previous pointwise and pairwise approaches, which are based on treating either each rating or each pairwise comparison as an independent instance respectively. By extending the work of (Cao et al. 2007), we cast listwise collaborative ranking as maximum likelihood under a permutation model which applies probability mass to permutations based on a low rank latent score matrix. We present a novel algorithm called SQL-Rank, which can accommodate ties and missing data and can run in linear time. We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing listwise ranking methods based on a novel representation theory for the permutation model. Applying this framework to collaborative ranking, we derive asymptotic statistical rates as the number of users and items grow together. We conclude by demonstrating that our SQL-Rank method often outperforms current state-of-the-art algorithms for implicit feedback such as Weighted-MF and BPR and achieve favorable results when compared to explicit feedback algorithms such as matrix factorization and collaborative ranking.
Machine Learning is a widely-used method for prediction generation. These predictions are more accurate when the model is trained on a larger dataset. On the other hand, the data is usually divided amongst different entities. For privacy reasons, the training can be done locally and then the model can be safely aggregated amongst the participants. However, if there are only two participants in \textit{Collaborative Learning}, the safe aggregation loses its power since the output of the training already contains much information about the participants. To resolve this issue, they must employ privacy-preserving mechanisms, which inevitably affect the accuracy of the model. In this paper, we model the training process as a two-player game where each player aims to achieve a higher accuracy while preserving its privacy. We introduce the notion of \textit{Price of Privacy}, a novel approach to measure the effect of privacy protection on the accuracy of the model. We develop a theoretical model for different player types, and we either find or prove the existence of a Nash Equilibrium with some assumptions. Moreover, we confirm these assumptions via a Recommendation Systems use case: for a specific learning algorithm, we apply three privacy-preserving mechanisms on two real-world datasets. Finally, as a complementary work for the designed game, we interpolate the relationship between privacy and accuracy for this use case and present three other methods to approximate it in a real-world scenario.
Discrete random structures are important tools in Bayesian nonparametrics and the resulting models have proven effective in density estimation, clustering, topic modeling and prediction, among others. In this paper, we consider nested processes and study the dependence structures they induce. Dependence ranges between homogeneity, corresponding to full exchangeability, and maximum heterogeneity, corresponding to (unconditional) independence across samples. The popular nested Dirichlet process is shown to degenerate to the fully exchangeable case when there are ties across samples at the observed or latent level. To overcome this drawback, inherent to nesting general discrete random measures, we introduce a novel class of latent nested processes. These are obtained by adding common and group-specific completely random measures and, then, normalising to yield dependent random probability measures. We provide results on the partition distributions induced by latent nested processes, and develop an Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler for Bayesian inferences. A test for distributional homogeneity across groups is obtained as a by product. The results and their inferential implications are showcased on synthetic and real data.