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The non-linear autoregressive (NLAR) model plays an important role in modeling and predicting time series. One-step ahead prediction is straightforward using the NLAR model, but the multi-step ahead prediction is cumbersome. For instance, iterating the one-step ahead predictor is a convenient strategy for linear autoregressive (LAR) models, but it is suboptimal under NLAR. In this paper, we first propose a simulation and/or bootstrap algorithm to construct optimal point predictors under an $L_1$ or $L_2$ loss criterion. In addition, we construct bootstrap prediction intervals in the multi-step ahead prediction problem; in particular, we develop an asymptotically valid quantile prediction interval as well as a pertinent prediction interval for future values. In order to correct the undercoverage of prediction intervals with finite samples, we further employ predictive -- as opposed to fitted -- residuals in the bootstrap process. Simulation studies are also given to substantiate the finite sample performance of our methods.

Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.

This paper is motivated by medical studies in which the same patients with multiple sclerosis are examined at several successive visits and described by fractional anisotropy tract profiles, which can be represented as functions. Since the observations for each patient are dependent random processes, they follow a repeated measures design for functional data. To compare the results for different visits, we thus consider functional repeated measures analysis of variance. For this purpose, a pointwise test statistic is constructed by adapting the classical test statistic for one-way repeated measures analysis of variance to the functional data framework. By integrating and taking the supremum of the pointwise test statistic, we create two global test statistics. Apart from verifying the general null hypothesis on the equality of mean functions corresponding to different objects, we also propose a simple method for post hoc analysis. We illustrate the finite sample properties of permutation and bootstrap testing procedures in an extensive simulation study. Finally, we analyze a motivating real data example in detail.

Quantum algorithms for optimization problems are of general interest. Despite recent progress in classical lower bounds for nonconvex optimization under different settings and quantum lower bounds for convex optimization, quantum lower bounds for nonconvex optimization are still widely open. In this paper, we conduct a systematic study of quantum query lower bounds on finding $\epsilon$-approximate stationary points of nonconvex functions, and we consider the following two important settings: 1) having access to $p$-th order derivatives; or 2) having access to stochastic gradients. The classical query lower bounds is $\Omega\big(\epsilon^{-\frac{1+p}{p}}\big)$ regarding the first setting, and $\Omega(\epsilon^{-4})$ regarding the second setting (or $\Omega(\epsilon^{-3})$ if the stochastic gradient function is mean-squared smooth). In this paper, we extend all these classical lower bounds to the quantum setting. They match the classical algorithmic results respectively, demonstrating that there is no quantum speedup for finding $\epsilon$-stationary points of nonconvex functions with $p$-th order derivative inputs or stochastic gradient inputs, whether with or without the mean-squared smoothness assumption. Technically, our quantum lower bounds are obtained by showing that the sequential nature of classical hard instances in all these settings also applies to quantum queries, preventing any quantum speedup other than revealing information of the stationary points sequentially.

We consider the block coordinate descent methods of Gauss-Seidel type with proximal regularization (BCD-PR), which is a classical method of minimizing general nonconvex objectives under constraints that has a wide range of practical applications. We theoretically establish the worst-case complexity bound for this algorithm. Namely, we show that for general nonconvex smooth objectives with block-wise constraints, the classical BCD-PR algorithm converges to an epsilon-stationary point within O(1/epsilon) iterations. Under a mild condition, this result still holds even if the algorithm is executed inexactly in each step. As an application, we propose a provable and efficient algorithm for `Wasserstein CP-dictionary learning', which seeks a set of elementary probability distributions that can well-approximate a given set of d-dimensional joint probability distributions. Our algorithm is a version of BCD-PR that operates in the dual space, where the primal problem is regularized both entropically and proximally.

In this paper, we investigate the theoretical properties of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for statistical inference in the context of nonconvex optimization problems, which have been relatively unexplored compared to convex settings. Our study is the first to establish provable inferential procedures using the SGD estimator for general nonconvex objective functions, which may contain multiple local minima. We propose two novel online inferential procedures that combine SGD and the multiplier bootstrap technique. The first procedure employs a consistent covariance matrix estimator, and we establish its error convergence rate. The second procedure approximates the limit distribution using bootstrap SGD estimators, yielding asymptotically valid bootstrap confidence intervals. We validate the effectiveness of both approaches through numerical experiments. Furthermore, our analysis yields an intermediate result: the in-expectation error convergence rate for the original SGD estimator in nonconvex settings, which is comparable to existing results for convex problems. We believe this novel finding holds independent interest and enriches the literature on optimization and statistical inference.

In this article we develop a high order accurate method to solve the incompressible boundary layer equations in a provably stable manner.~We first derive continuous energy estimates,~and then proceed to the discrete setting.~We formulate the discrete approximation using high-order finite difference methods on summation-by-parts form and implement the boundary conditions weakly using the simultaneous approximation term method.~By applying the discrete energy method and imitating the continuous analysis,~the discrete estimate that resembles the continuous counterpart is obtained proving stability.~We also show that these newly derived boundary conditions removes the singularities associated with the null-space of the nonlinear discrete spatial operator.~Numerical experiments that verifies the high-order accuracy of the scheme and coincides with the theoretical results are presented.~The numerical results are compared with the well-known Blasius similarity solution as well as that resulting from the solution of the incompressible Navier Stokes equations.

Stochastic approximation with multiple coupled sequences (MSA) has found broad applications in machine learning as it encompasses a rich class of problems including bilevel optimization (BLO), multi-level compositional optimization (MCO), and reinforcement learning (specifically, actor-critic methods). However, designing provably-efficient federated algorithms for MSA has been an elusive question even for the special case of double sequence approximation (DSA). Towards this goal, we develop FedMSA which is the first federated algorithm for MSA, and establish its near-optimal communication complexity. As core novelties, (i) FedMSA enables the provable estimation of hypergradients in BLO and MCO via local client updates, which has been a notable bottleneck in prior theory, and (ii) our convergence guarantees are sensitive to the heterogeneity-level of the problem. We also incorporate momentum and variance reduction techniques to achieve further acceleration leading to near-optimal rates. Finally, we provide experiments that support our theory and demonstrate the empirical benefits of FedMSA. As an example, FedMSA enables order-of-magnitude savings in communication rounds compared to prior federated BLO schemes.

The inference of a large symmetric signal-matrix $\mathbf{S} \in \mathbb{R}^{N\times N}$ corrupted by additive Gaussian noise, is considered for two regimes of growth of the rank $M$ as a function of $N$. For sub-linear ranks $M=\Theta(N^\alpha)$ with $\alpha\in(0,1)$ the mutual information and minimum mean-square error (MMSE) are derived for two classes of signal-matrices: (a) $\mathbf{S}=\mathbf{X}\mathbf{X}^\intercal$ with entries of $\mathbf{X}\in\mathbb{R}^{N\times M}$ independent identically distributed; (b) $\mathbf{S}$ sampled from a rotationally invariant distribution. Surprisingly, the formulas match the rank-one case. Two efficient algorithms are explored and conjectured to saturate the MMSE when no statistical-to-computational gap is present: (1) Decimation Approximate Message Passing; (2) a spectral algorithm based on a Rotation Invariant Estimator. For linear ranks $M=\Theta(N)$ the mutual information is rigorously derived for signal-matrices from a rotationally invariant distribution. Close connections with scalar inference in free probability are uncovered, which allow to deduce a simple formula for the MMSE as an integral involving the limiting spectral measure of the data matrix only. An interesting issue is whether the known information theoretic phase transitions for rank-one, and hence also sub-linear-rank, still persist in linear-rank. Our analysis suggests that only a smoothed-out trace of the transitions persists. Furthermore, the change of behavior between low and truly high-rank regimes only happens at the linear scale $\alpha=1$.

Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest.