Discrimination in selection problems such as hiring or college admission is often explained by implicit bias from the decision maker against disadvantaged demographic groups. In this paper, we consider a model where the decision maker receives a noisy estimate of each candidate's quality, whose variance depends on the candidate's group -- we argue that such differential variance is a key feature of many selection problems. We analyze two notable settings: in the first, the noise variances are unknown to the decision maker who simply picks the candidates with the highest estimated quality independently of their group; in the second, the variances are known and the decision maker picks candidates having the highest expected quality given the noisy estimate. We show that both baseline decision makers yield discrimination, although in opposite directions: the first leads to underrepresentation of the low-variance group while the second leads to underrepresentation of the high-variance group. We study the effect on the selection utility of imposing a fairness mechanism that we term the $\gamma$-rule (it is an extension of the classical four-fifths rule and it also includes demographic parity). In the first setting (with unknown variances), we prove that under mild conditions, imposing the $\gamma$-rule increases the selection utility -- here there is no trade-off between fairness and utility. In the second setting (with known variances), imposing the $\gamma$-rule decreases the utility but we prove a bound on the utility loss due to the fairness mechanism.
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Consider a set $P$ of $n$ points in $\mathbb{R}^d$. In the discrete median line segment problem, the objective is to find a line segment bounded by a pair of points in $P$ such that the sum of the Euclidean distances from $P$ to the line segment is minimized. In the continuous median line segment problem, a real number $\ell>0$ is given, and the goal is to locate a line segment of length $\ell$ in $\mathbb{R}^d$ such that the sum of the Euclidean distances between $P$ and the line segment is minimized. We show how to compute $(1+\epsilon\Delta)$- and $(1+\epsilon)$-approximations to a discrete median line segment in time $O(n\epsilon^{-2d}\log n)$ and $O(n^2\epsilon^{-d})$, respectively, where $\Delta$ is the spread of line segments spanned by pairs of points. While developing our algorithms, by using the principle of pair decomposition, we derive new data structures that allow us to quickly approximate the sum of the distances from a set of points to a given line segment or point. To our knowledge, our utilization of pair decompositions for solving minsum facility location problems is the first of its kind; it is versatile and easily implementable. We prove that it is impossible to construct a continuous median line segment for $n\geq3$ non-collinear points in the plane by using only ruler and compass. In view of this, we present an $O(n^d\epsilon^{-d})$-time algorithm for approximating a continuous median line segment in $\mathbb{R}^d$ within a factor of $1+\epsilon$. The algorithm is based upon generalizing the point-segment pair decomposition from the discrete to the continuous domain. Last but not least, we give an $(1+\epsilon)$-approximation algorithm, whose time complexity is sub-quadratic in $n$, for solving the constrained median line segment problem in $\mathbb{R}^2$ where an endpoint or the slope of the median line segment is given at input.
We consider the problem of counterfactual inference in sequentially designed experiments wherein a collection of $\mathbf{N}$ units each undergo a sequence of interventions for $\mathbf{T}$ time periods, based on policies that sequentially adapt over time. Our goal is counterfactual inference, i.e., estimate what would have happened if alternate policies were used, a problem that is inherently challenging due to the heterogeneity in the outcomes across units and time. To tackle this task, we introduce a suitable latent factor model where the potential outcomes are determined by exogenous unit and time level latent factors. Under suitable conditions, we show that it is possible to estimate the missing (potential) outcomes using a simple variant of nearest neighbors. First, assuming a bilinear latent factor model and allowing for an arbitrary adaptive sampling policy, we establish a distribution-free non-asymptotic guarantee for estimating the missing outcome of any unit at any time; under suitable regularity condition, this guarantee implies that our estimator is consistent. Second, for a generic non-parametric latent factor model, we establish that the estimate for the missing outcome of any unit at time $\mathbf{T}$ satisfies a central limit theorem as $\mathbf{T} \to \infty$, under suitable regularity conditions. Finally, en route to establishing this central limit theorem, we establish a non-asymptotic mean-squared-error bound for the estimate of the missing outcome of any unit at time $\mathbf{T}$. Our work extends the recently growing literature on inference with adaptively collected data by allowing for policies that pool across units, and also compliments the matrix completion literature when the entries are revealed sequentially in an arbitrarily dependent manner based on prior observed data.
Clustering is a fundamental problem in unsupervised machine learning, and fair variants of it have recently received significant attention due to its societal implications. In this work we introduce a novel definition of individual fairness for clustering problems. Specifically, in our model, each point $j$ has a set of other points $\mathcal{S}_j$ that it perceives as similar to itself, and it feels that it is fairly treated if the quality of service it receives in the solution is $\alpha$-close (in a multiplicative sense, for a given $\alpha \geq 1$) to that of the points in $\mathcal{S}_j$. We begin our study by answering questions regarding the structure of the problem, namely for what values of $\alpha$ the problem is well-defined, and what the behavior of the \emph{Price of Fairness (PoF)} for it is. For the well-defined region of $\alpha$, we provide efficient and easily-implementable approximation algorithms for the $k$-center objective, which in certain cases enjoy bounded-PoF guarantees. We finally complement our analysis by an extensive suite of experiments that validates the effectiveness of our theoretical results.
Evaluating predictive models is a crucial task in predictive analytics. This process is especially challenging with time series data where the observations show temporal dependencies. Several studies have analysed how different performance estimation methods compare with each other for approximating the true loss incurred by a given forecasting model. However, these studies do not address how the estimators behave for model selection: the ability to select the best solution among a set of alternatives. We address this issue and compare a set of estimation methods for model selection in time series forecasting tasks. We attempt to answer two main questions: (i) how often is the best possible model selected by the estimators; and (ii) what is the performance loss when it does not. We empirically found that the accuracy of the estimators for selecting the best solution is low, and the overall forecasting performance loss associated with the model selection process ranges from 1.2% to 2.3%. We also discovered that some factors, such as the sample size, are important in the relative performance of the estimators.
Firms and statistical agencies that publish aggregate data face practical and legal requirements to protect the privacy of individuals. Increasingly, these organizations meet these standards by using publication mechanisms which satisfy differential privacy. We consider the problem of choosing such a mechanism so as to maximize the value of its output to end users. We show that this is equivalent to a constrained information design problem, and characterize its solution. Moreover, by introducing a new order on information structures and showing that it ranks them by their usefulness to agents with supermodular payoffs, we show that the simple geometric mechanism is optimal whenever data users face supermodular decision problems.
In a first part, we present a mathematical analysis of a general methodology of a probabilistic learning inference that allows for estimating a posterior probability model for a stochastic boundary value problem from a prior probability model. The given targets are statistical moments for which the underlying realizations are not available. Under these conditions, the Kullback-Leibler divergence minimum principle is used for estimating the posterior probability measure. A statistical surrogate model of the implicit mapping, which represents the constraints, is introduced. The MCMC generator and the necessary numerical elements are given to facilitate the implementation of the methodology in a parallel computing framework. In a second part, an application is presented to illustrate the proposed theory and is also, as such, a contribution to the three-dimensional stochastic homogenization of heterogeneous linear elastic media in the case of a non-separation of the microscale and macroscale. For the construction of the posterior probability measure by using the probabilistic learning inference, in addition to the constraints defined by given statistical moments of the random effective elasticity tensor, the second-order moment of the random normalized residue of the stochastic partial differential equation has been added as a constraint. This constraint guarantees that the algorithm seeks to bring the statistical moments closer to their targets while preserving a small residue.
Let $P$ be a linear differential operator over $\mathcal{D} \subset \mathbb{R}^d$ and $U = (U_x)_{x \in \mathcal{D}}$ a second order stochastic process. In the first part of this article, we prove a new necessary and sufficient condition for all the trajectories of $U$ to verify the partial differential equation (PDE) $T(U) = 0$. This condition is formulated in terms of the covariance kernel of $U$. When compared to previous similar results, the novelty lies in that the equality $T(U) = 0$ is understood in the \textit{sense of distributions}, which is a relevant framework for PDEs. This theorem provides precious insights during the second part of this article, devoted to performing "physically informed" machine learning for the homogeneous 3 dimensional free space wave equation. We perform Gaussian process regression (GPR) on pointwise observations of a solution of this PDE. To do so, we propagate Gaussian processes (GP) priors over its initial conditions through the wave equation. We obtain explicit formulas for the covariance kernel of the propagated GP, which can then be used for GPR. We then explore the particular cases of radial symmetry and point source. For the former, we derive convolution-free GPR formulas; for the latter, we show a direct link between GPR and the classical triangulation method for point source localization used in GPS systems. Additionally, this Bayesian framework provides a new answer for the ill-posed inverse problem of reconstructing initial conditions for the wave equation with a limited number of sensors, and simultaneously enables the inference of physical parameters from these data. Finally, we illustrate this physically informed GPR on a number of practical examples.
Imitation learning enables agents to reuse and adapt the hard-won expertise of others, offering a solution to several key challenges in learning behavior. Although it is easy to observe behavior in the real-world, the underlying actions may not be accessible. We present a new method for imitation solely from observations that achieves comparable performance to experts on challenging continuous control tasks while also exhibiting robustness in the presence of observations unrelated to the task. Our method, which we call FORM (for "Future Observation Reward Model") is derived from an inverse RL objective and imitates using a model of expert behavior learned by generative modelling of the expert's observations, without needing ground truth actions. We show that FORM performs comparably to a strong baseline IRL method (GAIL) on the DeepMind Control Suite benchmark, while outperforming GAIL in the presence of task-irrelevant features.
Train machine learning models on sensitive user data has raised increasing privacy concerns in many areas. Federated learning is a popular approach for privacy protection that collects the local gradient information instead of real data. One way to achieve a strict privacy guarantee is to apply local differential privacy into federated learning. However, previous works do not give a practical solution due to three issues. First, the noisy data is close to its original value with high probability, increasing the risk of information exposure. Second, a large variance is introduced to the estimated average, causing poor accuracy. Last, the privacy budget explodes due to the high dimensionality of weights in deep learning models. In this paper, we proposed a novel design of local differential privacy mechanism for federated learning to address the abovementioned issues. It is capable of making the data more distinct from its original value and introducing lower variance. Moreover, the proposed mechanism bypasses the curse of dimensionality by splitting and shuffling model updates. A series of empirical evaluations on three commonly used datasets, MNIST, Fashion-MNIST and CIFAR-10, demonstrate that our solution can not only achieve superior deep learning performance but also provide a strong privacy guarantee at the same time.
Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) is a widely used tool for machine learning in distributed settings, where a machine learning model is trained over distributed data sources through an interactive process of local computation and message passing. Such an iterative process could cause privacy concerns of data owners. The goal of this paper is to provide differential privacy for ADMM-based distributed machine learning. Prior approaches on differentially private ADMM exhibit low utility under high privacy guarantee and often assume the objective functions of the learning problems to be smooth and strongly convex. To address these concerns, we propose a novel differentially private ADMM-based distributed learning algorithm called DP-ADMM, which combines an approximate augmented Lagrangian function with time-varying Gaussian noise addition in the iterative process to achieve higher utility for general objective functions under the same differential privacy guarantee. We also apply the moments accountant method to bound the end-to-end privacy loss. The theoretical analysis shows that DP-ADMM can be applied to a wider class of distributed learning problems, is provably convergent, and offers an explicit utility-privacy tradeoff. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to provide explicit convergence and utility properties for differentially private ADMM-based distributed learning algorithms. The evaluation results demonstrate that our approach can achieve good convergence and model accuracy under high end-to-end differential privacy guarantee.
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