Prediction models often fail if train and test data do not stem from the same distribution. Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization to unseen, perturbed test data is a desirable but difficult-to-achieve property for prediction models and in general requires strong assumptions on the data generating process (DGP). In a causally inspired perspective on OOD generalization, the test data arise from a specific class of interventions on exogenous random variables of the DGP, called anchors. Anchor regression models, introduced by Rothenhaeusler et al. (2021), protect against distributional shifts in the test data by employing causal regularization. However, so far anchor regression has only been used with a squared-error loss which is inapplicable to common responses such as censored continuous or ordinal data. Here, we propose a distributional version of anchor regression which generalizes the method to potentially censored responses with at least an ordered sample space. To this end, we combine a flexible class of parametric transformation models for distributional regression with an appropriate causal regularizer under a more general notion of residuals. In an exemplary application and several simulation scenarios we demonstrate the extent to which OOD generalization is possible.
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This paper focuses on stochastic saddle point problems with decision-dependent distributions in both the static and time-varying settings. These are problems whose objective is the expected value of a stochastic payoff function, where random variables are drawn from a distribution induced by a distributional map. For general distributional maps, the problem of finding saddle points is in general computationally burdensome, even if the distribution is known. To enable a tractable solution approach, we introduce the notion of equilibrium points -- which are saddle points for the stationary stochastic minimax problem that they induce -- and provide conditions for their existence and uniqueness. We demonstrate that the distance between the two classes of solutions is bounded provided that the objective has a strongly-convex-strongly-concave payoff and Lipschitz continuous distributional map. We develop deterministic and stochastic primal-dual algorithms and demonstrate their convergence to the equilibrium point. In particular, by modeling errors emerging from a stochastic gradient estimator as sub-Weibull random variables, we provide error bounds in expectation and in high probability that hold for each iteration; moreover, we show convergence to a neighborhood in expectation and almost surely. Finally, we investigate a condition on the distributional map -- which we call opposing mixture dominance -- that ensures the objective is strongly-convex-strongly-concave. Under this assumption, we show that primal-dual algorithms converge to the saddle points in a similar fashion.
Continual learning in environments with shifting data distributions is a challenging problem with several real-world applications. In this paper we consider settings in which the data distribution(task) shifts abruptly and the timing of these shifts are not known. Furthermore, we consider a semi-supervised task-agnostic setting in which the learning algorithm has access to both task-segmented and unsegmented data for offline training. We propose a novel approach called mixture of Basismodels (MoB) for addressing this problem setting. The core idea is to learn a small set of basis models and to construct a dynamic, task-dependent mixture of the models to predict for the current task. We also propose a new methodology to detect observations that are out-of-distribution with respect to the existing basis models and to instantiate new models as needed. We test our approach in multiple domains and show that it attains better prediction error than existing methods in most cases while using fewer models than other multiple model approaches. Moreover, we analyze the latent task representations learned by MoB and show that similar tasks tend to cluster in the latent space and that the latent representation shifts at the task boundaries when tasks are dissimilar.
We examine connections between combinatorial notions that arise in machine learning and topological notions in cubical/simplicial geometry. These connections enable to export results from geometry to machine learning. Our first main result is based on a geometric construction by Tracy Hall (2004) of a partial shelling of the cross-polytope which can not be extended. We use it to derive a maximum class of VC dimension 3 that has no corners. This refutes several previous works in machine learning from the past 11 years. In particular, it implies that all previous constructions of optimal unlabeled sample compression schemes for maximum classes are erroneous. On the positive side we present a new construction of an unlabeled sample compression scheme for maximum classes. We leave as open whether our unlabeled sample compression scheme extends to ample (a.k.a. lopsided or extremal) classes, which represent a natural and far-reaching generalization of maximum classes. Towards resolving this question, we provide a geometric characterization in terms of unique sink orientations of the 1-skeletons of associated cubical complexes.
Conventional supervised learning methods, especially deep ones, are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) examples, largely because the learned representation mixes the semantic factor with the variation factor due to their domain-specific correlation, while only the semantic factor causes the output. To address the problem, we propose a Causal Semantic Generative model (CSG) based on a causal reasoning so that the two factors are modeled separately, and develop methods for OOD prediction from a single training domain, which is common and challenging. The methods are based on the causal invariance principle, with a novel design for both efficient learning and easy prediction. Theoretically, we prove that under certain conditions, CSG can identify the semantic factor by fitting training data, and this semantic-identification guarantees the boundedness of OOD generalization error and the success of adaptation. Empirical study shows improved OOD performance over prevailing baselines.
We propose a novel approach to disentangle the generative factors of variation underlying a given set of observations. Our method builds upon the idea that the (unknown) low-dimensional manifold underlying the data space can be explicitly modeled as a product of submanifolds. This gives rise to a new definition of disentanglement, and to a novel weakly-supervised algorithm for recovering the unknown explanatory factors behind the data. At training time, our algorithm only requires pairs of non i.i.d. data samples whose elements share at least one, possibly multidimensional, generative factor of variation. We require no knowledge on the nature of these transformations, and do not make any limiting assumption on the properties of each subspace. Our approach is easy to implement, and can be successfully applied to different kinds of data (from images to 3D surfaces) undergoing arbitrary transformations. In addition to standard synthetic benchmarks, we showcase our method in challenging real-world applications, where we compare favorably with the state of the art.
The information bottleneck (IB) method is a technique for extracting information that is relevant for predicting the target random variable from the source random variable, which is typically implemented by optimizing the IB Lagrangian that balances the compression and prediction terms. However, the IB Lagrangian is hard to optimize, and multiple trials for tuning values of Lagrangian multiplier are required. Moreover, we show that the prediction performance strictly decreases as the compression gets stronger during optimizing the IB Lagrangian. In this paper, we implement the IB method from the perspective of supervised disentangling. Specifically, we introduce Disentangled Information Bottleneck (DisenIB) that is consistent on compressing source maximally without target prediction performance loss (maximum compression). Theoretical and experimental results demonstrate that our method is consistent on maximum compression, and performs well in terms of generalization, robustness to adversarial attack, out-of-distribution detection, and supervised disentangling.
Intersection over Union (IoU) is the most popular evaluation metric used in the object detection benchmarks. However, there is a gap between optimizing the commonly used distance losses for regressing the parameters of a bounding box and maximizing this metric value. The optimal objective for a metric is the metric itself. In the case of axis-aligned 2D bounding boxes, it can be shown that $IoU$ can be directly used as a regression loss. However, $IoU$ has a plateau making it infeasible to optimize in the case of non-overlapping bounding boxes. In this paper, we address the weaknesses of $IoU$ by introducing a generalized version as both a new loss and a new metric. By incorporating this generalized $IoU$ ($GIoU$) as a loss into the state-of-the art object detection frameworks, we show a consistent improvement on their performance using both the standard, $IoU$ based, and new, $GIoU$ based, performance measures on popular object detection benchmarks such as PASCAL VOC and MS COCO.
Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) is a widely used tool for machine learning in distributed settings, where a machine learning model is trained over distributed data sources through an interactive process of local computation and message passing. Such an iterative process could cause privacy concerns of data owners. The goal of this paper is to provide differential privacy for ADMM-based distributed machine learning. Prior approaches on differentially private ADMM exhibit low utility under high privacy guarantee and often assume the objective functions of the learning problems to be smooth and strongly convex. To address these concerns, we propose a novel differentially private ADMM-based distributed learning algorithm called DP-ADMM, which combines an approximate augmented Lagrangian function with time-varying Gaussian noise addition in the iterative process to achieve higher utility for general objective functions under the same differential privacy guarantee. We also apply the moments accountant method to bound the end-to-end privacy loss. The theoretical analysis shows that DP-ADMM can be applied to a wider class of distributed learning problems, is provably convergent, and offers an explicit utility-privacy tradeoff. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to provide explicit convergence and utility properties for differentially private ADMM-based distributed learning algorithms. The evaluation results demonstrate that our approach can achieve good convergence and model accuracy under high end-to-end differential privacy guarantee.
Discrete random structures are important tools in Bayesian nonparametrics and the resulting models have proven effective in density estimation, clustering, topic modeling and prediction, among others. In this paper, we consider nested processes and study the dependence structures they induce. Dependence ranges between homogeneity, corresponding to full exchangeability, and maximum heterogeneity, corresponding to (unconditional) independence across samples. The popular nested Dirichlet process is shown to degenerate to the fully exchangeable case when there are ties across samples at the observed or latent level. To overcome this drawback, inherent to nesting general discrete random measures, we introduce a novel class of latent nested processes. These are obtained by adding common and group-specific completely random measures and, then, normalising to yield dependent random probability measures. We provide results on the partition distributions induced by latent nested processes, and develop an Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler for Bayesian inferences. A test for distributional homogeneity across groups is obtained as a by product. The results and their inferential implications are showcased on synthetic and real data.
In this paper, we study the optimal convergence rate for distributed convex optimization problems in networks. We model the communication restrictions imposed by the network as a set of affine constraints and provide optimal complexity bounds for four different setups, namely: the function $F(\xb) \triangleq \sum_{i=1}^{m}f_i(\xb)$ is strongly convex and smooth, either strongly convex or smooth or just convex. Our results show that Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent on the dual problem can be executed in a distributed manner and obtains the same optimal rates as in the centralized version of the problem (up to constant or logarithmic factors) with an additional cost related to the spectral gap of the interaction matrix. Finally, we discuss some extensions to the proposed setup such as proximal friendly functions, time-varying graphs, improvement of the condition numbers.
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