Sparse linear regression methods including the well-known LASSO and the Dantzig selector have become ubiquitous in the engineering practice, including in medical imaging. Among other tasks, they have been successfully applied for the estimation of neuronal activity from functional magnetic resonance data without prior knowledge of the stimulus or activation timing, utilizing an approximate knowledge of the hemodynamic response to local neuronal activity. These methods work by generating a parametric family of solutions with different sparsity, among which an ultimate choice is made using an information criteria. We propose a novel approach, that instead of selecting a single option from the family of regularized solutions, utilizes the whole family of such sparse regression solutions. Namely, their ensemble provides a first approximation of probability of activation at each time-point, and together with the conditional neuronal activity distributions estimated with the theory of mixtures with varying concentrations, they serve as the inputs to a Bayes classifier eventually deciding on the verity of activation at each time-point. We show in extensive numerical simulations that this new method performs favourably in comparison with standard approaches in a range of realistic scenarios. This is mainly due to the avoidance of overfitting and underfitting that commonly plague the solutions based on sparse regression combined with model selection methods, including the corrected Akaike Information Criterion. This advantage is finally documented in selected fMRI task datasets.
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Incomplete covariate vectors are known to be problematic for estimation and inferences on model parameters, but their impact on prediction performance is less understood. We develop an imputation-free method that builds on a random partition model admitting variable-dimension covariates. Cluster-specific response models further incorporate covariates via linear predictors, facilitating estimation of smooth prediction surfaces with relatively few clusters. We exploit marginalization techniques of Gaussian kernels to analytically project response distributions according to any pattern of missing covariates, yielding a local regression with internally consistent uncertainty propagation that utilizes only one set of coefficients per cluster. Aggressive shrinkage of these coefficients regulates uncertainty due to missing covariates. The method allows in- and out-of-sample prediction for any missingness pattern, even if the pattern in a new subject's incomplete covariate vector was not seen in the training data. We develop an MCMC algorithm for posterior sampling that improves a computationally expensive update for latent cluster allocation. Finally, we demonstrate the model's effectiveness for nonlinear point and density prediction under various circumstances by comparing with other recent methods for regression of variable dimensions on synthetic and real data.
We present a novel approach based on sparse Gaussian processes (SGPs) to address the sensor placement problem for monitoring spatially (or spatiotemporally) correlated phenomena such as temperature. Existing Gaussian process (GP) based sensor placement approaches use GPs to model the phenomena and subsequently optimize the sensor locations in a discretized representation of the environment. In our approach, we fit an SGP to randomly sampled unlabeled locations in the environment and show that the learned inducing points of the SGP inherently solve the sensor placement problem in continuous spaces. Using SGPs avoids discretizing the environment and reduces the computation cost from cubic to linear complexity. When restricted to a candidate set of sensor placement locations, we can use greedy sequential selection algorithms on the SGP's optimization bound to find good solutions. We also present an approach to efficiently map our continuous space solutions to discrete solution spaces using the assignment problem, which gives us discrete sensor placements optimized in unison. Moreover, we generalize our approach to model non-point sensors with an arbitrary field-of-view (FoV) shape using an efficient transformation technique. Finally, we leverage theoretical results from the SGP literature to bound the number of required sensors and the quality of the solution placements. Our experimental results on two real-world datasets show that our approaches generate solutions consistently on par with the prior state-of-the-art approach while being substantially faster. We also demonstrate our solution placements for non-point FoV sensors and a spatiotemporally correlated phenomenon on a scale that was previously infeasible.
We introduce the Weak-form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics (WENDy) method for estimating model parameters for non-linear systems of ODEs. The core mathematical idea involves an efficient conversion of the strong form representation of a model to its weak form, and then solving a regression problem to perform parameter inference. The core statistical idea rests on the Errors-In-Variables framework, which necessitates the use of the iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm. Further improvements are obtained by using orthonormal test functions, created from a set of $C^{\infty}$ bump functions of varying support sizes. We demonstrate that WENDy is a highly robust and efficient method for parameter inference in differential equations. Without relying on any numerical differential equation solvers, WENDy computes accurate estimates and is robust to large (biologically relevant) levels of measurement noise. For low dimensional systems with modest amounts of data, WENDy is competitive with conventional forward solver-based nonlinear least squares methods in terms of speed and accuracy. For both higher dimensional systems and stiff systems, WENDy is typically both faster (often by orders of magnitude) and more accurate than forward solver-based approaches. We illustrate the method and its performance in some common population and neuroscience models, including logistic growth, Lotka-Volterra, FitzHugh-Nagumo, Hindmarsh-Rose, and a Protein Transduction Benchmark model. Software and code for reproducing the examples is available at (//github.com/MathBioCU/WENDy).
With apparently all research on estimation-of-distribution algorithms (EDAs) concentrated on pseudo-Boolean optimization and permutation problems, we undertake the first steps towards using EDAs for problems in which the decision variables can take more than two values, but which are not permutation problems. To this aim, we propose a natural way to extend the known univariate EDAs to such variables. Different from a naive reduction to the binary case, it avoids additional constraints. Since understanding genetic drift is crucial for an optimal parameter choice, we extend the known quantitative analysis of genetic drift to EDAs for multi-valued variables. Roughly speaking, when the variables take $r$ different values, the time for genetic drift to become significant is $r$ times shorter than in the binary case. Consequently, the update strength of the probabilistic model has to be chosen $r$ times lower now. To investigate how desired model updates take place in this framework, we undertake a mathematical runtime analysis on the $r$-valued LeadingOnes problem. We prove that with the right parameters, the multi-valued UMDA solves this problem efficiently in $O(r\log(r)^2 n^2 \log(n))$ function evaluations. Overall, our work shows that EDAs can be adjusted to multi-valued problems, and it gives advice on how to set the main parameters.
Thompson sampling (TS) for the parametric stochastic multi-armed bandits has been well studied under the one-dimensional parametric models. It is often reported that TS is fairly insensitive to the choice of the prior when it comes to regret bounds. However, this property is not necessarily true when multiparameter models are considered, e.g., a Gaussian model with unknown mean and variance parameters. In this paper, we first extend the regret analysis of TS to the model of uniform distributions with unknown supports. Specifically, we show that a switch of noninformative priors drastically affects the regret in expectation. Through our analysis, the uniform prior is proven to be the optimal choice in terms of the expected regret, while the reference prior and the Jeffreys prior are found to be suboptimal, which is consistent with previous findings in the model of Gaussian distributions. However, the uniform prior is specific to the parameterization of the distributions, meaning that if an agent considers different parameterizations of the same model, the agent with the uniform prior might not always achieve the optimal performance. In light of this limitation, we propose a slightly modified TS-based policy, called TS with Truncation (TS-T), which can achieve the asymptotic optimality for the Gaussian distributions and the uniform distributions by using the reference prior and the Jeffreys prior that are invariant under one-to-one reparameterizations. The pre-processig of the posterior distribution is the key to TS-T, where we add an adaptive truncation procedure on the parameter space of the posterior distributions. Simulation results support our analysis, where TS-T shows the best performance in a finite-time horizon compared to other known optimal policies, while TS with the invariant priors performs poorly.
Many problems arising in control require the determination of a mathematical model of the application. This has often to be performed starting from input-output data, leading to a task known as system identification in the engineering literature. One emerging topic in this field is estimation of networks consisting of several interconnected dynamic systems. We consider the linear setting assuming that system outputs are the result of many correlated inputs, hence making system identification severely ill-conditioned. This is a scenario often encountered when modeling complex cybernetics systems composed by many sub-units with feedback and algebraic loops. We develop a strategy cast in a Bayesian regularization framework where any impulse response is seen as realization of a zero-mean Gaussian process. Any covariance is defined by the so called stable spline kernel which includes information on smooth exponential decay. We design a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme able to reconstruct the impulse responses posterior by efficiently dealing with collinearity. Our scheme relies on a variation of the Gibbs sampling technique: beyond considering blocks forming a partition of the parameter space, some other (overlapping) blocks are also updated on the basis of the level of collinearity of the system inputs. Theoretical properties of the algorithm are studied obtaining its convergence rate. Numerical experiments are included using systems containing hundreds of impulse responses and highly correlated inputs.
We consider random sample splitting for estimation and inference in high dimensional generalized linear models, where we first apply the lasso to select a submodel using one subsample and then apply the debiased lasso to fit the selected model using the remaining subsample. We show that, no matter including a prespecified subset of regression coefficients or not, the debiased lasso estimation of the selected submodel after a single splitting follows a normal distribution asymptotically. Furthermore, for a set of prespecified regression coefficients, we show that a multiple splitting procedure based on the debiased lasso can address the loss of efficiency associated with sample splitting and produce asymptotically normal estimates under mild conditions. Our simulation results indicate that using the debiased lasso instead of the standard maximum likelihood estimator in the estimation stage can vastly reduce the bias and variance of the resulting estimates. We illustrate the proposed multiple splitting debiased lasso method with an analysis of the smoking data of the Mid-South Tobacco Case-Control Study.
In this work we develop a discretisation method for the Brinkman problem that is uniformly well-behaved in all regimes (as identified by a local dimensionless number with the meaning of a friction coefficient) and supports general meshes as well as arbitrary approximation orders. The method is obtained combining ideas from the Hybrid High-Order and Discrete de Rham methods, and its robustness rests on a potential reconstruction and stabilisation terms that change in nature according to the value of the local friction coefficient. We derive error estimates that, thanks to the presence of cut-off factors, are valid across the all regimes and provide extensive numerical validation.
This paper proposes innovations to parameter estimation in a generalised logistic regression model in the context of detecting differential item functioning in multi-item measurements. The two newly proposed iterative algorithms are compared with existing methods in a simulation study, and their use is demonstrated in a real data example. Additionally the study examines software implementation including specification of initial values for iterative algorithms, and asymptotic properties with estimation of standard errors. Overall, the proposed methods gave comparable results to existing ones and were superior in some scenarios.
We prove a convergence theorem for U-statistics of degree two, where the data dimension $d$ is allowed to scale with sample size $n$. We find that the limiting distribution of a U-statistic undergoes a phase transition from the non-degenerate Gaussian limit to the degenerate limit, regardless of its degeneracy and depending only on a moment ratio. A surprising consequence is that a non-degenerate U-statistic in high dimensions can have a non-Gaussian limit with a larger variance and asymmetric distribution. Our bounds are valid for any finite $n$ and $d$, independent of individual eigenvalues of the underlying function, and dimension-independent under a mild assumption. As an application, we apply our theory to two popular kernel-based distribution tests, MMD and KSD, whose high-dimensional performance has been challenging to study. In a simple empirical setting, our results correctly predict how the test power at a fixed threshold scales with $d$ and the bandwidth.
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