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We propose a new framework for the simultaneous inference of monotone smooth time varying functions under complex temporal dynamics utilizing the monotone rearrangement and the nonparametric estimation. We capitalize the Gaussian approximation for the nonparametric monotone estimator and construct the asymptotically correct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) by carefully designed bootstrap methods. We investigate two general and practical scenarios which have received limited attention. The first is the simultaneous inference of monotone smooth trends from moderately high dimensional time series, and the proposed algorithm has been employed for the joint inference of temperature curves from multiple areas. Specifically, most existing methods are designed for a single monotone smooth trend. In such cases, our proposed SCB empirically exhibits the narrowest width among existing approaches while maintaining confidence levels. The second scenario involves simultaneous inference of monotone smooth regression coefficient functions in time-varying linear models. The proposed algorithm has been utilized for testing the impact of sunshine duration on temperature which is believed to be increasing by the greenhouse effect hypothesis. The validity of the proposed methods has been justified theoretically as well as extensive simulations.

The present work is concerned with the extension of modified potential operator splitting methods to specific classes of nonlinear evolution equations. The considered partial differential equations of Schr{\"o}dinger and parabolic type comprise the Laplacian, a potential acting as multiplication operator, and a cubic nonlinearity. Moreover, an invariance principle is deduced that has a significant impact on the efficient realisation of the resulting modified operator splitting methods for the Schr{\"o}dinger case.} Numerical illustrations for the time-dependent Gross--Pitaevskii equation in the physically most relevant case of three space dimensions and for its parabolic counterpart related to ground state and excited state computations confirm the benefits of the proposed fourth-order modified operator splitting method in comparison with standard splitting methods. The presented results are novel and of particular interest from both, a theoretical perspective to inspire future investigations of modified operator splitting methods for other classes of nonlinear evolution equations and a practical perspective to advance the reliable and efficient simulation of Gross--Pitaevskii systems in real and imaginary time.

In multiple hypotheses testing it has become widely popular to make inference on the true discovery proportion (TDP) of a set $\mathcal{M}$ of null hypotheses. This approach is useful for several application fields, such as neuroimaging and genomics. Several procedures to compute simultaneous lower confidence bounds for the TDP have been suggested in prior literature. Simultaneity allows for post-hoc selection of $\mathcal{M}$. If sets of interest are specified a priori, it is possible to gain power by removing the simultaneity requirement. We present an approach to compute lower confidence bounds for the TDP if the set of null hypotheses is defined a priori. The proposed method determines the bounds using the exact distribution of the number of rejections based on a step-up multiple testing procedure under independence assumptions. We assess robustness properties of our procedure and apply it to real data from the field of functional magnetic resonance imaging.

We propose a novel surrogate modelling approach to efficiently and accurately approximate the response of complex dynamical systems driven by time-varying exogenous excitations over extended time periods. Our approach, namely manifold nonlinear autoregressive modelling with exogenous input (mNARX), involves constructing a problem-specific exogenous input manifold that is optimal for constructing autoregressive surrogates. The manifold, which forms the core of mNARX, is constructed incrementally by incorporating the physics of the system, as well as prior expert- and domain- knowledge. Because mNARX decomposes the full problem into a series of smaller sub-problems, each with a lower complexity than the original, it scales well with the complexity of the problem, both in terms of training and evaluation costs of the final surrogate. Furthermore, mNARX synergizes well with traditional dimensionality reduction techniques, making it highly suitable for modelling dynamical systems with high-dimensional exogenous inputs, a class of problems that is typically challenging to solve. Since domain knowledge is particularly abundant in physical systems, such as those found in civil and mechanical engineering, mNARX is well suited for these applications. We demonstrate that mNARX outperforms traditional autoregressive surrogates in predicting the response of a classical coupled spring-mass system excited by a one-dimensional random excitation. Additionally, we show that mNARX is well suited for emulating very high-dimensional time- and state-dependent systems, even when affected by active controllers, by surrogating the dynamics of a realistic aero-servo-elastic onshore wind turbine simulator. In general, our results demonstrate that mNARX offers promising prospects for modelling complex dynamical systems, in terms of accuracy and efficiency.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have yielded promising results for both recognizing objects in challenging conditions and modeling aspects of primate vision. However, the representational dynamics of recurrent computations remain poorly understood, especially in large-scale visual models. Here, we studied such dynamics in RNNs trained for object classification on MiniEcoset, a novel subset of ecoset. We report two main insights. First, upon inference, representations continued to evolve after correct classification, suggesting a lack of the notion of being ``done with classification''. Second, focusing on ``readout zones'' as a way to characterize the activation trajectories, we observe that misclassified representations exhibit activation patterns with lower L2 norm, and are positioned more peripherally in the readout zones. Such arrangements help the misclassified representations move into the correct zones as time progresses. Our findings generalize to networks with lateral and top-down connections, and include both additive and multiplicative interactions with the bottom-up sweep. The results therefore contribute to a general understanding of RNN dynamics in naturalistic tasks. We hope that the analysis framework will aid future investigations of other types of RNNs, including understanding of representational dynamics in primate vision.

Language models (LMs) have recently flourished in natural language processing and computer vision, generating high-fidelity texts or images in various tasks. In contrast, the current speech generative models are still struggling regarding speech quality and task generalization. This paper presents Vec-Tok Speech, an extensible framework that resembles multiple speech generation tasks, generating expressive and high-fidelity speech. Specifically, we propose a novel speech codec based on speech vectors and semantic tokens. Speech vectors contain acoustic details contributing to high-fidelity speech reconstruction, while semantic tokens focus on the linguistic content of speech, facilitating language modeling. Based on the proposed speech codec, Vec-Tok Speech leverages an LM to undertake the core of speech generation. Moreover, Byte-Pair Encoding (BPE) is introduced to reduce the token length and bit rate for lower exposure bias and longer context coverage, improving the performance of LMs. Vec-Tok Speech can be used for intra- and cross-lingual zero-shot voice conversion (VC), zero-shot speaking style transfer text-to-speech (TTS), speech-to-speech translation (S2ST), speech denoising, and speaker de-identification and anonymization. Experiments show that Vec-Tok Speech, built on 50k hours of speech, performs better than other SOTA models. Code will be available at //github.com/BakerBunker/VecTok .

We study the problem of adaptive variable selection in a Gaussian white noise model of intensity $\varepsilon$ under certain sparsity and regularity conditions on an unknown regression function $f$. The $d$-variate regression function $f$ is assumed to be a sum of functions each depending on a smaller number $k$ of variables ($1 \leq k \leq d$). These functions are unknown to us and only few of them are non-zero. We assume that $d=d_\varepsilon \to \infty$ as $\varepsilon \to 0$ and consider the cases when $k$ is fixed and when $k=k_\varepsilon \to \infty$ and $k=o(d)$ as $\varepsilon \to 0$. In this work, we introduce an adaptive selection procedure that, under some model assumptions, identifies exactly all non-zero $k$-variate components of $f$. In addition, we establish conditions under which exact identification of the non-zero components is impossible. These conditions ensure that the proposed selection procedure is the best possible in the asymptotically minimax sense with respect to the Hamming risk.

We present a machine learning framework capable of consistently inferring mathematical expressions of hyperelastic energy functionals for incompressible materials from sparse experimental data and physical laws. To achieve this goal, we propose a polyconvex neural additive model (PNAM) that enables us to express the hyperelastic model in a learnable feature space while enforcing polyconvexity. An upshot of this feature space obtained via the PNAM is that (1) it is spanned by a set of univariate basis that can be re-parametrized with a more complex mathematical form, and (2) the resultant elasticity model is guaranteed to fulfill the polyconvexity, which ensures that the acoustic tensor remains elliptic for any deformation. To further improve the interpretability, we use genetic programming to convert each univariate basis into a compact mathematical expression. The resultant multi-variable mathematical models obtained from this proposed framework are not only more interpretable but are also proven to fulfill physical laws. By controlling the compactness of the learned symbolic form, the machine learning-generated mathematical model also requires fewer arithmetic operations than its deep neural network counterparts during deployment. This latter attribute is crucial for scaling large-scale simulations where the constitutive responses of every integration point must be updated within each incremental time step. We compare our proposed model discovery framework against other state-of-the-art alternatives to assess the robustness and efficiency of the training algorithms and examine the trade-off between interpretability, accuracy, and precision of the learned symbolic hyperelastic models obtained from different approaches. Our numerical results suggest that our approach extrapolates well outside the training data regime due to the precise incorporation of physics-based knowledge.

Bayesian cross-validation (CV) is a popular method for predictive model assessment that is simple to implement and broadly applicable. A wide range of CV schemes is available for time series applications, including generic leave-one-out (LOO) and K-fold methods, as well as specialized approaches intended to deal with serial dependence such as leave-future-out (LFO), h-block, and hv-block. Existing large-sample results show that both specialized and generic methods are applicable to models of serially-dependent data. However, large sample consistency results overlook the impact of sampling variability on accuracy in finite samples. Moreover, the accuracy of a CV scheme depends on many aspects of the procedure. We show that poor design choices can lead to elevated rates of adverse selection. In this paper, we consider the problem of identifying the regression component of an important class of models of data with serial dependence, autoregressions of order p with q exogenous regressors (ARX(p,q)), under the logarithmic scoring rule. We show that when serial dependence is present, scores computed using the joint (multivariate) density have lower variance and better model selection accuracy than the popular pointwise estimator. In addition, we present a detailed case study of the special case of ARX models with fixed autoregressive structure and variance. For this class, we derive the finite-sample distribution of the CV estimators and the model selection statistic. We conclude with recommendations for practitioners.

We propose a framework to solve non-linear and history-dependent mechanical problems based on a hybrid classical computer-quantum annealer approach. Quantum Computers are anticipated to solve particular operations exponentially faster. The available possible operations are however not as versatile as with a classical computer. However, quantum annealers (QAs) is well suited to evaluate the minimum state of a Hamiltonian quadratic potential. Therefore, we reformulate the elasto-plastic finite element problem as a double minimisation process framed at the structural scale using the variational updates formulation. In order to comply with the expected quadratic nature of the Hamiltonian, the resulting non-linear minimisation problems are iteratively solved with the suggested Quantum Annealing-assisted Sequential Quadratic Programming (QA-SQP): a sequence of minimising quadratic problems is performed by approximating the objective function by a quadratic Taylor's series. Each quadratic minimisation problem of continuous variables is then transformed into a binary quadratic problem. This binary quadratic minimisation problem can be solved on quantum annealing hardware such as the D-Wave system. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated with one and two-dimensional elasto-plastic numerical benchmarks. The current work provides a pathway of performing general non-linear finite element simulations assisted by quantum computing.