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Algorithmic predictions are increasingly used to inform the allocations of goods and interventions in the public sphere. In these domains, predictions serve as a means to an end. They provide stakeholders with insights into likelihood of future events as a means to improve decision making quality, and enhance social welfare. However, if maximizing welfare is the ultimate goal, prediction is only a small piece of the puzzle. There are various other policy levers a social planner might pursue in order to improve bottom-line outcomes, such as expanding access to available goods, or increasing the effect sizes of interventions. Given this broad range of design decisions, a basic question to ask is: What is the relative value of prediction in algorithmic decision making? How do the improvements in welfare arising from better predictions compare to those of other policy levers? The goal of our work is to initiate the formal study of these questions. Our main results are theoretical in nature. We identify simple, sharp conditions determining the relative value of prediction vis-\`a-vis expanding access, within several statistical models that are popular amongst quantitative social scientists. Furthermore, we illustrate how these theoretical insights may be used to guide the design of algorithmic decision making systems in practice.

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《計算機信息》雜志發表高質量的論文,擴大了運籌學和計算的范圍,尋求有關理論、方法、實驗、系統和應用方面的原創研究論文、新穎的調查和教程論文,以及描述新的和有用的軟件工具的論文。官網鏈接: · 機器人 · Vision · 估計/估計量 · Extensibility ·
2024 年 7 月 11 日

The accumulation of litter is increasing in many places and is consequently becoming a problem that must be dealt with. In this paper, we present a manipulator robotic system to collect litter in outdoor environments. This system has three functionalities. Firstly, it uses colour images to detect and recognise litter comprising different materials. Secondly, depth data are combined with pixels of waste objects to compute a 3D location and segment three-dimensional point clouds of the litter items in the scene. The grasp in 3 Degrees of Freedom (DoFs) is then estimated for a robot arm with a gripper for the segmented cloud of each instance of waste. Finally, two tactile-based algorithms are implemented and then employed in order to provide the gripper with a sense of touch. This work uses two low-cost visual-based tactile sensors at the fingertips. One of them addresses the detection of contact (which is obtained from tactile images) between the gripper and solid waste, while another has been designed to detect slippage in order to prevent the objects grasped from falling. Our proposal was successfully tested by carrying out extensive experimentation with different objects varying in size, texture, geometry and materials in different outdoor environments (a tiled pavement, a surface of stone/soil, and grass). Our system achieved an average score of 94% for the detection and Collection Success Rate (CSR) as regards its overall performance, and of 80% for the collection of items of litter at the first attempt.

Metadata play a crucial role in ensuring the findability, accessibility, interoperability, and reusability of datasets. This paper investigates the potential of large language models (LLMs), specifically GPT-4, to improve adherence to metadata standards. We conducted experiments on 200 random data records describing human samples relating to lung cancer from the NCBI BioSample repository, evaluating GPT-4's ability to suggest edits for adherence to metadata standards. We computed the adherence accuracy of field name-field value pairs through a peer review process, and we observed a marginal average improvement in adherence to the standard data dictionary from 79% to 80% (p<0.5). We then prompted GPT-4 with domain information in the form of the textual descriptions of CEDAR templates and recorded a significant improvement to 97% from 79% (p<0.01). These results indicate that, while LLMs may not be able to correct legacy metadata to ensure satisfactory adherence to standards when unaided, they do show promise for use in automated metadata curation when integrated with a structured knowledge base

Political scientists are increasingly attuned to the promises and pitfalls of establishing causal effects. But the vital question for many is not if a causal effect exists but why and how it exists. Even so, many researchers avoid causal mediation analyses due to the assumptions required, instead opting to explore causal mechanisms through what we call intermediate outcome tests. These tests use the same research design used to estimate the effect of treatment on the outcome to estimate the effect of the treatment on one or more mediators, with authors often concluding that evidence of the latter is evidence of a causal mechanism. We show in this paper that, without further assumptions, this can neither establish nor rule out the existence of a causal mechanism. Instead, such conclusions about the indirect effect of treatment rely on implicit and usually very strong assumptions that are often unmet. Thus, such causal mechanism tests, though very common in political science, should not be viewed as a free lunch but rather should be used judiciously, and researchers should explicitly state and defend the requisite assumptions.

Periodic activation functions, often referred to as learned Fourier features have been widely demonstrated to improve sample efficiency and stability in a variety of deep RL algorithms. Potentially incompatible hypotheses have been made about the source of these improvements. One is that periodic activations learn low frequency representations and as a result avoid overfitting to bootstrapped targets. Another is that periodic activations learn high frequency representations that are more expressive, allowing networks to quickly fit complex value functions. We analyse these claims empirically, finding that periodic representations consistently converge to high frequencies regardless of their initialisation frequency. We also find that while periodic activation functions improve sample efficiency, they exhibit worse generalization on states with added observation noise -- especially when compared to otherwise equivalent networks with ReLU activation functions. Finally, we show that weight decay regularization is able to partially offset the overfitting of periodic activation functions, delivering value functions that learn quickly while also generalizing.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various applications, fundamentally reshaping the landscape of natural language processing (NLP) research. However, recent evaluation frameworks often rely on the output probabilities of LLMs for predictions, primarily due to computational constraints, diverging from real-world LLM usage scenarios. While widely employed, the efficacy of these probability-based evaluation strategies remains an open research question. This study aims to scrutinize the validity of such probability-based evaluation methods within the context of using LLMs for Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs), highlighting their inherent limitations. Our empirical investigation reveals that the prevalent probability-based evaluation method inadequately aligns with generation-based prediction. Furthermore, current evaluation frameworks typically assess LLMs through predictive tasks based on output probabilities rather than directly generating responses, owing to computational limitations. We illustrate that these probability-based approaches do not effectively correspond with generative predictions. The outcomes of our study can enhance the understanding of LLM evaluation methodologies and provide insights for future research in this domain.

Despite of the established evidence in favor of exergames for physical rehabilitation their use is limited in Pakistan. In our user study with game developers (N=62), majority (67.7%) of the participants believed that exergames' popularity will increase if cheap alternatives of body tracking devices are available. Perhaps, custom controllers can be used as an affordable alternate input source in exergames but the lack of hardware programming knowledge and shortage of experience in the embedded programming attribute to the little involvement of game developers (11.3% of the participants) in the area of exergames. This paper presents a library for the integration of Arduino based (open-source and low-cost) tailored controllers to be used as input source in Unity3D (most preferred game development engine by 88.7% participants) based exergames. The interface to the library proposes a flexible and easy structure for programming and serve as a template application for a range of exergames.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown excellent generalization capabilities that have led to the development of numerous models. These models propose various new architectures, tweaking existing architectures with refined training strategies, increasing context length, using high-quality training data, and increasing training time to outperform baselines. Analyzing new developments is crucial for identifying changes that enhance training stability and improve generalization in LLMs. This survey paper comprehensively analyses the LLMs architectures and their categorization, training strategies, training datasets, and performance evaluations and discusses future research directions. Moreover, the paper also discusses the basic building blocks and concepts behind LLMs, followed by a complete overview of LLMs, including their important features and functions. Finally, the paper summarizes significant findings from LLM research and consolidates essential architectural and training strategies for developing advanced LLMs. Given the continuous advancements in LLMs, we intend to regularly update this paper by incorporating new sections and featuring the latest LLM models.

In pace with developments in the research field of artificial intelligence, knowledge graphs (KGs) have attracted a surge of interest from both academia and industry. As a representation of semantic relations between entities, KGs have proven to be particularly relevant for natural language processing (NLP), experiencing a rapid spread and wide adoption within recent years. Given the increasing amount of research work in this area, several KG-related approaches have been surveyed in the NLP research community. However, a comprehensive study that categorizes established topics and reviews the maturity of individual research streams remains absent to this day. Contributing to closing this gap, we systematically analyzed 507 papers from the literature on KGs in NLP. Our survey encompasses a multifaceted review of tasks, research types, and contributions. As a result, we present a structured overview of the research landscape, provide a taxonomy of tasks, summarize our findings, and highlight directions for future work.

When is heterogeneity in the composition of an autonomous robotic team beneficial and when is it detrimental? We investigate and answer this question in the context of a minimally viable model that examines the role of heterogeneous speeds in perimeter defense problems, where defenders share a total allocated speed budget. We consider two distinct problem settings and develop strategies based on dynamic programming and on local interaction rules. We present a theoretical analysis of both approaches and our results are extensively validated using simulations. Interestingly, our results demonstrate that the viability of heterogeneous teams depends on the amount of information available to the defenders. Moreover, our results suggest a universality property: across a wide range of problem parameters the optimal ratio of the speeds of the defenders remains nearly constant.

We consider the problem of explaining the predictions of graph neural networks (GNNs), which otherwise are considered as black boxes. Existing methods invariably focus on explaining the importance of graph nodes or edges but ignore the substructures of graphs, which are more intuitive and human-intelligible. In this work, we propose a novel method, known as SubgraphX, to explain GNNs by identifying important subgraphs. Given a trained GNN model and an input graph, our SubgraphX explains its predictions by efficiently exploring different subgraphs with Monte Carlo tree search. To make the tree search more effective, we propose to use Shapley values as a measure of subgraph importance, which can also capture the interactions among different subgraphs. To expedite computations, we propose efficient approximation schemes to compute Shapley values for graph data. Our work represents the first attempt to explain GNNs via identifying subgraphs explicitly and directly. Experimental results show that our SubgraphX achieves significantly improved explanations, while keeping computations at a reasonable level.

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