Many tasks in statistical and causal inference can be construed as problems of \emph{entailment} in a suitable formal language. We ask whether those problems are more difficult, from a computational perspective, for \emph{causal} probabilistic languages than for pure probabilistic (or "associational") languages. Despite several senses in which causal reasoning is indeed more complex -- both expressively and inferentially -- we show that causal entailment (or satisfiability) problems can be systematically and robustly reduced to purely probabilistic problems. Thus there is no jump in computational complexity. Along the way we answer several open problems concerning the complexity of well known probability logics, in particular demonstrating the $\exists\mathbb{R}$-completeness of a polynomial probability calculus, as well as a seemingly much simpler system, the logic of comparative conditional probability.
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A proof procedure, in the spirit of the sequent calculus, is proposed to check the validity of entailments between Separation Logic formulas combining inductively defined predicates denoted structures of bounded tree width and theory reasoning. The calculus is sound and complete, in the sense that a sequent is valid iff it admits a (possibly infinite) proof tree. We show that the procedure terminates in the two following cases: (i) When the inductive rules that define the predicates occurring on the left-hand side of the entailment terminate, in which case the proof tree is always finite. (ii) When the theory is empty, in which case every valid sequent admits a rational proof tree, where the total number of pairwise distinct sequents occurring in the proof tree is doubly exponential w.r.t.\ the size of the end-sequent. We also show that the validity problem is undecidable for a wide class of theories, even with a very low expressive power.
The expressive power of interval temporal logics (ITLs) makes them one of the most natural choices in a number of application domains, ranging from the specification and verification of complex reactive systems to automated planning. However, for a long time, because of their high computational complexity, they were considered not suitable for practical purposes. The recent discovery of several computationally well-behaved ITLs has finally changed the scenario. In this paper, we investigate the finite satisfiability and model checking problems for the ITL D, that has a single modality for the sub-interval relation, under the homogeneity assumption (that constrains a proposition letter to hold over an interval if and only if it holds over all its points). We first prove that the satisfiability problem for D, over finite linear orders, is PSPACE-complete, and then we show that the same holds for its model checking problem, over finite Kripke structures. In such a way, we enrich the set of tractable interval temporal logics with a new meaningful representative.
We study a syntax for specifying quantitative "assertions" - functions mapping program states to numbers - for probabilistic program verification. We prove that our syntax is expressive in the following sense: Given any probabilistic program $C$, if a function $f$ is expressible in our syntax, then the function mapping each initial state $\sigma$ to the expected value of $f$ evaluated in the final states reached after termination of $C$ on $\sigma$ (also called the weakest preexpectation $\textit{wp} [C](f)$) is also expressible in our syntax. As a consequence, we obtain a relatively complete verification system for reasoning about expected values and probabilities in the sense of Cook: Apart from proving a single inequality between two functions given by syntactic expressions in our language, given $f$, $g$, and $C$, we can check whether $g \preceq \textit{wp} [C] (f)$.
Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) provide a powerful framework to model causal relationships among variables in multivariate settings; in addition, through the do-calculus theory, they allow for the identification and estimation of causal effects between variables also from pure observational data. In this setting, the process of inferring the DAG structure from the data is referred to as causal structure learning or causal discovery. We introduce BCDAG, an R package for Bayesian causal discovery and causal effect estimation from Gaussian observational data, implementing the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme proposed by Castelletti & Mascaro (2021). Our implementation scales efficiently with the number of observations and, whenever the DAGs are sufficiently sparse, with the number of variables in the dataset. The package also provides functions for convergence diagnostics and for visualizing and summarizing posterior inference. In this paper, we present the key features of the underlying methodology along with its implementation in BCDAG. We then illustrate the main functions and algorithms on both real and simulated datasets.
One of the fundamental problems in Artificial Intelligence is to perform complex multi-hop logical reasoning over the facts captured by a knowledge graph (KG). This problem is challenging, because KGs can be massive and incomplete. Recent approaches embed KG entities in a low dimensional space and then use these embeddings to find the answer entities. However, it has been an outstanding challenge of how to handle arbitrary first-order logic (FOL) queries as present methods are limited to only a subset of FOL operators. In particular, the negation operator is not supported. An additional limitation of present methods is also that they cannot naturally model uncertainty. Here, we present BetaE, a probabilistic embedding framework for answering arbitrary FOL queries over KGs. BetaE is the first method that can handle a complete set of first-order logical operations: conjunction ($\wedge$), disjunction ($\vee$), and negation ($\neg$). A key insight of BetaE is to use probabilistic distributions with bounded support, specifically the Beta distribution, and embed queries/entities as distributions, which as a consequence allows us to also faithfully model uncertainty. Logical operations are performed in the embedding space by neural operators over the probabilistic embeddings. We demonstrate the performance of BetaE on answering arbitrary FOL queries on three large, incomplete KGs. While being more general, BetaE also increases relative performance by up to 25.4% over the current state-of-the-art KG reasoning methods that can only handle conjunctive queries without negation.
Neural networks have succeeded in many reasoning tasks. Empirically, these tasks require specialized network structures, e.g., Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) perform well on many such tasks, but less structured networks fail. Theoretically, there is limited understanding of why and when a network structure generalizes better than others, although they have equal expressive power. In this paper, we develop a framework to characterize which reasoning tasks a network can learn well, by studying how well its computation structure aligns with the algorithmic structure of the relevant reasoning process. We formally define this algorithmic alignment and derive a sample complexity bound that decreases with better alignment. This framework offers an explanation for the empirical success of popular reasoning models, and suggests their limitations. As an example, we unify seemingly different reasoning tasks, such as intuitive physics, visual question answering, and shortest paths, via the lens of a powerful algorithmic paradigm, dynamic programming (DP). We show that GNNs align with DP and thus are expected to solve these tasks. On several reasoning tasks, our theory is supported by empirical results.
Markov Logic Networks (MLNs), which elegantly combine logic rules and probabilistic graphical models, can be used to address many knowledge graph problems. However, inference in MLN is computationally intensive, making the industrial-scale application of MLN very difficult. In recent years, graph neural networks (GNNs) have emerged as efficient and effective tools for large-scale graph problems. Nevertheless, GNNs do not explicitly incorporate prior logic rules into the models, and may require many labeled examples for a target task. In this paper, we explore the combination of MLNs and GNNs, and use graph neural networks for variational inference in MLN. We propose a GNN variant, named ExpressGNN, which strikes a nice balance between the representation power and the simplicity of the model. Our extensive experiments on several benchmark datasets demonstrate that ExpressGNN leads to effective and efficient probabilistic logic reasoning.
Knowledge graph reasoning, which aims at predicting the missing facts through reasoning with the observed facts, is critical to many applications. Such a problem has been widely explored by traditional logic rule-based approaches and recent knowledge graph embedding methods. A principled logic rule-based approach is the Markov Logic Network (MLN), which is able to leverage domain knowledge with first-order logic and meanwhile handle their uncertainty. However, the inference of MLNs is usually very difficult due to the complicated graph structures. Different from MLNs, knowledge graph embedding methods (e.g. TransE, DistMult) learn effective entity and relation embeddings for reasoning, which are much more effective and efficient. However, they are unable to leverage domain knowledge. In this paper, we propose the probabilistic Logic Neural Network (pLogicNet), which combines the advantages of both methods. A pLogicNet defines the joint distribution of all possible triplets by using a Markov logic network with first-order logic, which can be efficiently optimized with the variational EM algorithm. In the E-step, a knowledge graph embedding model is used for inferring the missing triplets, while in the M-step, the weights of logic rules are updated based on both the observed and predicted triplets. Experiments on multiple knowledge graphs prove the effectiveness of pLogicNet over many competitive baselines.
A fundamental computation for statistical inference and accurate decision-making is to compute the marginal probabilities or most probable states of task-relevant variables. Probabilistic graphical models can efficiently represent the structure of such complex data, but performing these inferences is generally difficult. Message-passing algorithms, such as belief propagation, are a natural way to disseminate evidence amongst correlated variables while exploiting the graph structure, but these algorithms can struggle when the conditional dependency graphs contain loops. Here we use Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to learn a message-passing algorithm that solves these inference tasks. We first show that the architecture of GNNs is well-matched to inference tasks. We then demonstrate the efficacy of this inference approach by training GNNs on a collection of graphical models and showing that they substantially outperform belief propagation on loopy graphs. Our message-passing algorithms generalize out of the training set to larger graphs and graphs with different structure.
Inferring missing links in knowledge graphs (KG) has attracted a lot of attention from the research community. In this paper, we tackle a practical query answering task involving predicting the relation of a given entity pair. We frame this prediction problem as an inference problem in a probabilistic graphical model and aim at resolving it from a variational inference perspective. In order to model the relation between the query entity pair, we assume that there exist underlying latent variables (assemble of all paths connecting these two nodes) in the KG, which carries the equivalent semantics of their relation. However, due to the intractability of connections in large KGs, we propose to use variation inference to maximize the evidence lower bound. More specifically, our framework (\textsc{Diva}) is composed of three modules, i.e. a posterior approximator, a prior (path finder), and a likelihood (path reasoner). By using variational inference, we are able to incorporate them closely into a unified architecture and jointly optimize them to perform KG reasoning. With active interactions among these sub-modules, \textsc{Diva} is better at handling noise and cope with more complex reasoning scenarios. In order to evaluate our method, we conduct the experiment of the link prediction task on NELL-995 and FB15K datasets and achieve state-of-the-art performances on both datasets.
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