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A networked time series (NETS) is a family of time series on a given graph, one for each node. It has found a wide range of applications from intelligent transportation, environment monitoring to mobile network management. An important task in such applications is to predict the future values of a NETS based on its historical values and the underlying graph. Most existing methods require complete data for training. However, in real-world scenarios, it is not uncommon to have missing data due to sensor malfunction, incomplete sensing coverage, etc. In this paper, we study the problem of NETS prediction with incomplete data. We propose NETS-ImpGAN, a novel deep learning framework that can be trained on incomplete data with missing values in both history and future. Furthermore, we propose novel Graph Temporal Attention Networks by incorporating the attention mechanism to capture both inter-time series correlations and temporal correlations. We conduct extensive experiments on three real-world datasets under different missing patterns and missing rates. The experimental results show that NETS-ImpGAN outperforms existing methods except when data exhibit very low variance, in which case NETS-ImpGAN still achieves competitive performance.

In recent years, by leveraging more data, computation, and diverse tasks, learned optimizers have achieved remarkable success in supervised learning, outperforming classical hand-designed optimizers. Reinforcement learning (RL) is essentially different from supervised learning and in practice these learned optimizers do not work well even in simple RL tasks. We investigate this phenomenon and identity three issues. First, the gradients of an RL agent vary across a wide range in logarithms while their absolute values are in a small range, making neural networks hard to obtain accurate parameter updates. Second, the agent-gradient distribution is non-independent and identically distributed, leading to inefficient meta-training. Finally, due to highly stochastic agent-environment interactions, the agent-gradients have high bias and variance, which increase the difficulty of learning an optimizer for RL. We propose gradient processing, pipeline training, and a novel optimizer structure with good inductive bias to address these issues. By applying these techniques, for the first time, we show that learning an optimizer for RL from scratch is possible. Although only trained in toy tasks, our learned optimizer can generalize to unseen complex tasks in Brax.

Artificial neural networks that can recover latent dynamics from recorded neural activity may provide a powerful avenue for identifying and interpreting the dynamical motifs underlying biological computation. Given that neural variance alone does not uniquely determine a latent dynamical system, interpretable architectures should prioritize accurate and low-dimensional latent dynamics. In this work, we evaluated the performance of sequential autoencoders (SAEs) in recovering latent chaotic attractors from simulated neural datasets. We found that SAEs with widely-used recurrent neural network (RNN)-based dynamics were unable to infer accurate firing rates at the true latent state dimensionality, and that larger RNNs relied upon dynamical features not present in the data. On the other hand, SAEs with neural ordinary differential equation (NODE)-based dynamics inferred accurate rates at the true latent state dimensionality, while also recovering latent trajectories and fixed point structure. Ablations reveal that this is mainly because NODEs (1) allow use of higher-capacity multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) to model the vector field and (2) predict the derivative rather than the next state. Decoupling the capacity of the dynamics model from its latent dimensionality enables NODEs to learn the requisite low-D dynamics where RNN cells fail. Additionally, the fact that the NODE predicts derivatives imposes a useful autoregressive prior on the latent states. The suboptimal interpretability of widely-used RNN-based dynamics may motivate substitution for alternative architectures, such as NODE, that enable learning of accurate dynamics in low-dimensional latent spaces.

Dictionary learning is an effective tool for pattern recognition and classification of time series data. Among various dictionary learning techniques, the dynamic time warping (DTW) is commonly used for dealing with temporal delays, scaling, transformation, and many other kinds of temporal misalignments issues. However, the DTW suffers overfitting or information loss due to its discrete nature in aligning time series data. To address this issue, we propose a generalized time warping invariant dictionary learning algorithm in this paper. Our approach features a generalized time warping operator, which consists of linear combinations of continuous basis functions for facilitating continuous temporal warping. The integration of the proposed operator and the dictionary learning is formulated as an optimization problem, where the block coordinate descent method is employed to jointly optimize warping paths, dictionaries, and sparseness coefficients. The optimized results are then used as hyperspace distance measures to feed classification and clustering algorithms. The superiority of the proposed method in terms of dictionary learning, classification, and clustering is validated through ten sets of public datasets in comparing with various benchmark methods.

Robust feature selection is vital for creating reliable and interpretable Machine Learning (ML) models. When designing statistical prediction models in cases where domain knowledge is limited and underlying interactions are unknown, choosing the optimal set of features is often difficult. To mitigate this issue, we introduce a Multidata (M) causal feature selection approach that simultaneously processes an ensemble of time series datasets and produces a single set of causal drivers. This approach uses the causal discovery algorithms PC1 or PCMCI that are implemented in the Tigramite Python package. These algorithms utilize conditional independence tests to infer parts of the causal graph. Our causal feature selection approach filters out causally-spurious links before passing the remaining causal features as inputs to ML models (Multiple linear regression, Random Forest) that predict the targets. We apply our framework to the statistical intensity prediction of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones (TC), for which it is often difficult to accurately choose drivers and their dimensionality reduction (time lags, vertical levels, and area-averaging). Using more stringent significance thresholds in the conditional independence tests helps eliminate spurious causal relationships, thus helping the ML model generalize better to unseen TC cases. M-PC1 with a reduced number of features outperforms M-PCMCI, non-causal ML, and other feature selection methods (lagged correlation, random), even slightly outperforming feature selection based on eXplainable Artificial Intelligence. The optimal causal drivers obtained from our causal feature selection help improve our understanding of underlying relationships and suggest new potential drivers of TC intensification.

Gradient methods have become mainstream techniques for Bi-Level Optimization (BLO) in learning fields. The validity of existing works heavily rely on either a restrictive Lower-Level Strong Convexity (LLSC) condition or on solving a series of approximation subproblems with high accuracy or both. In this work, by averaging the upper and lower level objectives, we propose a single loop Bi-level Averaged Method of Multipliers (sl-BAMM) for BLO that is simple yet efficient for large-scale BLO and gets rid of the limited LLSC restriction. We further provide non-asymptotic convergence analysis of sl-BAMM towards KKT stationary points, and the comparative advantage of our analysis lies in the absence of strong gradient boundedness assumption, which is always required by others. Thus our theory safely captures a wider variety of applications in deep learning, especially where the upper-level objective is quadratic w.r.t. the lower-level variable. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our method.

Given the high incidence of cardio and cerebrovascular diseases (CVD), and its association with morbidity and mortality, its prevention is a major public health issue. A high level of blood pressure is a well-known risk factor for these events and an increasing number of studies suggest that blood pressure variability may also be an independent risk factor. However, these studies suffer from significant methodological weaknesses. In this work we propose a new location-scale joint model for the repeated measures of a marker and competing events. This joint model combines a mixed model including a subject-specific and time-dependent residual variance modeled through random effects, and cause-specific proportional intensity models for the competing events. The risk of events may depend simultaneously on the current value of the variance, as well as, the current value and the current slope of the marker trajectory. The model is estimated by maximizing the likelihood function using the Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm. The estimation procedure is implemented in a R-package and is validated through a simulation study. This model is applied to study the association between blood pressure variability and the risk of CVD and death from other causes. Using data from a large clinical trial on the secondary prevention of stroke, we find that the current individual variability of blood pressure is associated with the risk of CVD and death. Moreover, the comparison with a model without heterogeneous variance shows the importance of taking into account this variability in the goodness-of-fit and for dynamic predictions.

Multimodal learning helps to comprehensively understand the world, by integrating different senses. Accordingly, multiple input modalities are expected to boost model performance, but we actually find that they are not fully exploited even when the multimodal model outperforms its uni-modal counterpart. Specifically, in this paper we point out that existing multimodal discriminative models, in which uniform objective is designed for all modalities, could remain under-optimized uni-modal representations, caused by another dominated modality in some scenarios, e.g., sound in blowing wind event, vision in drawing picture event, etc. To alleviate this optimization imbalance, we propose on-the-fly gradient modulation to adaptively control the optimization of each modality, via monitoring the discrepancy of their contribution towards the learning objective. Further, an extra Gaussian noise that changes dynamically is introduced to avoid possible generalization drop caused by gradient modulation. As a result, we achieve considerable improvement over common fusion methods on different multimodal tasks, and this simple strategy can also boost existing multimodal methods, which illustrates its efficacy and versatility. The source code is available at \url{//github.com/GeWu-Lab/OGM-GE_CVPR2022}.

What matters for contrastive learning? We argue that contrastive learning heavily relies on informative features, or "hard" (positive or negative) features. Early works include more informative features by applying complex data augmentations and large batch size or memory bank, and recent works design elaborate sampling approaches to explore informative features. The key challenge toward exploring such features is that the source multi-view data is generated by applying random data augmentations, making it infeasible to always add useful information in the augmented data. Consequently, the informativeness of features learned from such augmented data is limited. In response, we propose to directly augment the features in latent space, thereby learning discriminative representations without a large amount of input data. We perform a meta learning technique to build the augmentation generator that updates its network parameters by considering the performance of the encoder. However, insufficient input data may lead the encoder to learn collapsed features and therefore malfunction the augmentation generator. A new margin-injected regularization is further added in the objective function to avoid the encoder learning a degenerate mapping. To contrast all features in one gradient back-propagation step, we adopt the proposed optimization-driven unified contrastive loss instead of the conventional contrastive loss. Empirically, our method achieves state-of-the-art results on several benchmark datasets.

Meta-learning extracts the common knowledge acquired from learning different tasks and uses it for unseen tasks. It demonstrates a clear advantage on tasks that have insufficient training data, e.g., few-shot learning. In most meta-learning methods, tasks are implicitly related via the shared model or optimizer. In this paper, we show that a meta-learner that explicitly relates tasks on a graph describing the relations of their output dimensions (e.g., classes) can significantly improve the performance of few-shot learning. This type of graph is usually free or cheap to obtain but has rarely been explored in previous works. We study the prototype based few-shot classification, in which a prototype is generated for each class, such that the nearest neighbor search between the prototypes produces an accurate classification. We introduce "Gated Propagation Network (GPN)", which learns to propagate messages between prototypes of different classes on the graph, so that learning the prototype of each class benefits from the data of other related classes. In GPN, an attention mechanism is used for the aggregation of messages from neighboring classes, and a gate is deployed to choose between the aggregated messages and the message from the class itself. GPN is trained on a sequence of tasks from many-shot to few-shot generated by subgraph sampling. During training, it is able to reuse and update previously achieved prototypes from the memory in a life-long learning cycle. In experiments, we change the training-test discrepancy and test task generation settings for thorough evaluations. GPN outperforms recent meta-learning methods on two benchmark datasets in all studied cases.