Risk assessment for extreme events requires accurate estimation of high quantiles that go beyond the range of historical observations. When the risk depends on the values of observed predictors, regression techniques are used to interpolate in the predictor space. We propose the EQRN model that combines tools from neural networks and extreme value theory into a method capable of extrapolation in the presence of complex predictor dependence. Neural networks can naturally incorporate additional structure in the data. We develop a recurrent version of EQRN that is able to capture complex sequential dependence in time series. We apply this method to forecast flood risk in the Swiss Aare catchment. It exploits information from multiple covariates in space and time to provide one-day-ahead predictions of return levels and exceedance probabilities. This output complements the static return level from a traditional extreme value analysis, and the predictions are able to adapt to distributional shifts as experienced in a changing climate. Our model can help authorities to manage flooding more effectively and to minimize their disastrous impacts through early warning systems.
A major challenge when describing the origin of life is to explain "how instructional information control systems emerge naturally and spontaneously from mere molecular dynamics". So far, no one has clarified how information control emerged ab initio and how primitive control mechanisms in life might have evolved, becoming increasingly refined. Based on recent experimental results showing that chemical computation does not require the presence of life-related chemistry, we elucidate the origin and early evolution of information handling by chemical automata, from information processing (computation) to information storage (memory) and information transmission (communication) and later digital messengers, covering at the same time its syntactic, semantic and pragmatic flavors. In contrast to other theories that assume the existence of initial complex structures, our representation starts from trivial self-replicators whose interaction leads to the arising of more powerful molecular machines. By describing precisely the primordial transitions in chemistry-based computation, our framework is capable of explaining the above-mentioned gaps and can be translated to other models of computation, which allow us to explore biological phenomena at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Being compatible with the free energy principle, we have developed a computational enactivist theoretical framework that could be able to describe from the origin of life to high-level cognition, as if it were a purely constructivist narrative. At the end of our manuscript, we propose some ways to extend our ideas, including experimental validation of our theory (both in vitro and in silico).
The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) has demonstrated promising progress in solving logical reasoning tasks effectively. Several recent approaches have proposed to change the role of the LLM from the reasoner into a translator between natural language statements and symbolic representations which are then sent to external symbolic solvers to resolve. This paradigm has established the current state-of-the-art result in logical reasoning (i.e., deductive reasoning). However, it remains unclear whether the variance in performance of these approaches stems from the methodologies employed or the specific symbolic solvers utilized. There is a lack of consistent comparison between symbolic solvers and how they influence the overall reported performance. This is important, as each symbolic solver also has its own input symbolic language, presenting varying degrees of challenge in the translation process. To address this gap, we perform experiments on 3 deductive reasoning benchmarks with LLMs augmented with widely used symbolic solvers: Z3, Pyke, and Prover9. The tool-executable rates of symbolic translation generated by different LLMs exhibit a near 50% performance variation. This highlights a significant difference in performance rooted in very basic choices of tools. The almost linear correlation between the executable rate of translations and the accuracy of the outcomes from Prover9 highlight a strong alignment between LLMs ability to translate into Prover9 symbolic language, and the correctness of those translations.
Privacy is a central challenge for systems that learn from sensitive data sets, especially when a system's outputs must be continuously updated to reflect changing data. We consider the achievable error for differentially private continual release of a basic statistic - the number of distinct items - in a stream where items may be both inserted and deleted (the turnstile model). With only insertions, existing algorithms have additive error just polylogarithmic in the length of the stream $T$. We uncover a much richer landscape in the turnstile model, even without considering memory restrictions. We show that every differentially private mechanism that handles insertions and deletions has worst-case additive error at least $T^{1/4}$ even under a relatively weak, event-level privacy definition. Then, we identify a parameter of the input stream, its maximum flippancy, that is low for natural data streams and for which we give tight parameterized error guarantees. Specifically, the maximum flippancy is the largest number of times that the contribution of a single item to the distinct elements count changes over the course of the stream. We present an item-level differentially private mechanism that, for all turnstile streams with maximum flippancy $w$, continually outputs the number of distinct elements with an $O(\sqrt{w} \cdot poly\log T)$ additive error, without requiring prior knowledge of $w$. We prove that this is the best achievable error bound that depends only on $w$, for a large range of values of $w$. When $w$ is small, the error of our mechanism is similar to the polylogarithmic in $T$ error in the insertion-only setting, bypassing the hardness in the turnstile model.
We consider the challenging problem of estimating causal effects from purely observational data in the bi-directional Mendelian randomization (MR), where some invalid instruments, as well as unmeasured confounding, usually exist. To address this problem, most existing methods attempt to find proper valid instrumental variables (IVs) for the target causal effect by expert knowledge or by assuming that the causal model is a one-directional MR model. As such, in this paper, we first theoretically investigate the identification of the bi-directional MR from observational data. In particular, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions under which valid IV sets are correctly identified such that the bi-directional MR model is identifiable, including the causal directions of a pair of phenotypes (i.e., the treatment and outcome). Moreover, based on the identification theory, we develop a cluster fusion-like method to discover valid IV sets and estimate the causal effects of interest. We theoretically demonstrate the correctness of the proposed algorithm. Experimental results show the effectiveness of our method for estimating causal effects in bi-directional MR.
Extreme value analysis (EVA) uses data to estimate long-term extreme environmental conditions for variables such as significant wave height and period, for the design of marine structures. Together with models for the short-term evolution of the ocean environment and for wave-structure interaction, EVA provides a basis for full probabilistic design analysis. Alternatively, environmental contours provide an approximate approach to estimating structural integrity, without requiring structural knowledge. These contour methods also exploit statistical models, including EVA, but avoid the need for structural modelling by making what are believed to be conservative assumptions about the shape of the structural failure boundary in the environment space. These assumptions, however, may not always be appropriate, or may lead to unnecessary wasted resources from over design. We demonstrate a methodology for efficient fully probabilistic analysis of structural failure. From this, we estimate the joint conditional probability density of the environment (CDE), given the occurrence of an extreme structural response. We use CDE as a diagnostic to highlight the deficiencies of environmental contour methods for design; none of the IFORM environmental contours considered characterise CDE well for three example structures.
This study explores how sentence types affect the Lombard effect and intelligibility enhancement, focusing on comparisons between natural and grid sentences. Using the Lombard Chinese-TIMIT (LCT) corpus and the Enhanced MAndarin Lombard Grid (EMALG) corpus, we analyze changes in phonetic and acoustic features across different noise levels. Our results show that grid sentences produce more pronounced Lombard effects than natural sentences. Then, we develop and test a normal-to-Lombard conversion model, trained separately on LCT and EMALG corpora. Through subjective and objective evaluations, natural sentences are superior in maintaining speech quality in intelligibility enhancement. In contrast, grid sentences could provide superior intelligibility due to the more pronounced Lombard effect. This study provides a valuable perspective on enhancing speech communication in noisy environments.
Reasoning, a crucial ability for complex problem-solving, plays a pivotal role in various real-world settings such as negotiation, medical diagnosis, and criminal investigation. It serves as a fundamental methodology in the field of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). With the ongoing development of foundation models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing interest in exploring their abilities in reasoning tasks. In this paper, we introduce seminal foundation models proposed or adaptable for reasoning, highlighting the latest advancements in various reasoning tasks, methods, and benchmarks. We then delve into the potential future directions behind the emergence of reasoning abilities within foundation models. We also discuss the relevance of multimodal learning, autonomous agents, and super alignment in the context of reasoning. By discussing these future research directions, we hope to inspire researchers in their exploration of this field, stimulate further advancements in reasoning with foundation models, and contribute to the development of AGI.
The dominating NLP paradigm of training a strong neural predictor to perform one task on a specific dataset has led to state-of-the-art performance in a variety of applications (eg. sentiment classification, span-prediction based question answering or machine translation). However, it builds upon the assumption that the data distribution is stationary, ie. that the data is sampled from a fixed distribution both at training and test time. This way of training is inconsistent with how we as humans are able to learn from and operate within a constantly changing stream of information. Moreover, it is ill-adapted to real-world use cases where the data distribution is expected to shift over the course of a model's lifetime. The first goal of this thesis is to characterize the different forms this shift can take in the context of natural language processing, and propose benchmarks and evaluation metrics to measure its effect on current deep learning architectures. We then proceed to take steps to mitigate the effect of distributional shift on NLP models. To this end, we develop methods based on parametric reformulations of the distributionally robust optimization framework. Empirically, we demonstrate that these approaches yield more robust models as demonstrated on a selection of realistic problems. In the third and final part of this thesis, we explore ways of efficiently adapting existing models to new domains or tasks. Our contribution to this topic takes inspiration from information geometry to derive a new gradient update rule which alleviate catastrophic forgetting issues during adaptation.
This work considers the question of how convenient access to copious data impacts our ability to learn causal effects and relations. In what ways is learning causality in the era of big data different from -- or the same as -- the traditional one? To answer this question, this survey provides a comprehensive and structured review of both traditional and frontier methods in learning causality and relations along with the connections between causality and machine learning. This work points out on a case-by-case basis how big data facilitates, complicates, or motivates each approach.
Detecting carried objects is one of the requirements for developing systems to reason about activities involving people and objects. We present an approach to detect carried objects from a single video frame with a novel method that incorporates features from multiple scales. Initially, a foreground mask in a video frame is segmented into multi-scale superpixels. Then the human-like regions in the segmented area are identified by matching a set of extracted features from superpixels against learned features in a codebook. A carried object probability map is generated using the complement of the matching probabilities of superpixels to human-like regions and background information. A group of superpixels with high carried object probability and strong edge support is then merged to obtain the shape of the carried object. We applied our method to two challenging datasets, and results show that our method is competitive with or better than the state-of-the-art.