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Researchers commonly use difference-in-differences (DiD) designs to evaluate public policy interventions. While established methodologies exist for estimating effects in the context of binary interventions, policies often result in varied exposures across regions implementing the policy. Yet, existing approaches for incorporating continuous exposures face substantial limitations in addressing confounding variables associated with intervention status, exposure levels, and outcome trends. These limitations significantly constrain policymakers' ability to fully comprehend policy impacts and design future interventions. In this study, we propose innovative estimators for causal effect curves within the DiD framework, accounting for multiple sources of confounding. Our approach accommodates misspecification of a subset of treatment, exposure, and outcome models while avoiding any parametric assumptions on the effect curve. We present the statistical properties of the proposed methods and illustrate their application through simulations and a study investigating the diverse effects of a nutritional excise tax.

We investigate the problem of generating common randomness (CR) from finite compound sources aided by unidirectional communication over rate-limited perfect channels. The two communicating parties, often referred to as terminals, observe independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples of a finite compound source and aim to agree on a common random variable with a high probability for every possible realization of the source state. Both parties know the set of source states as well as their statistics. However, they are unaware of the actual realization of the source state. We establish a single-letter lower and upper bound on the compound CR capacity for the specified model. Furthermore, we present two special scenarios where the established bounds coincide.

Reasoning, a crucial ability for complex problem-solving, plays a pivotal role in various real-world settings such as negotiation, medical diagnosis, and criminal investigation. It serves as a fundamental methodology in the field of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). With the ongoing development of foundation models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing interest in exploring their abilities in reasoning tasks. In this paper, we introduce seminal foundation models proposed or adaptable for reasoning, highlighting the latest advancements in various reasoning tasks, methods, and benchmarks. We then delve into the potential future directions behind the emergence of reasoning abilities within foundation models. We also discuss the relevance of multimodal learning, autonomous agents, and super alignment in the context of reasoning. By discussing these future research directions, we hope to inspire researchers in their exploration of this field, stimulate further advancements in reasoning with foundation models, and contribute to the development of AGI.

Learning time-evolving objects such as multivariate time series and dynamic networks requires the development of novel knowledge representation mechanisms and neural network architectures, which allow for capturing implicit time-dependent information contained in the data. Such information is typically not directly observed but plays a key role in the learning task performance. In turn, lack of time dimension in knowledge encoding mechanisms for time-dependent data leads to frequent model updates, poor learning performance, and, as a result, subpar decision-making. Here we propose a new approach to a time-aware knowledge representation mechanism that notably focuses on implicit time-dependent topological information along multiple geometric dimensions. In particular, we propose a new approach, named \textit{Temporal MultiPersistence} (TMP), which produces multidimensional topological fingerprints of the data by using the existing single parameter topological summaries. The main idea behind TMP is to merge the two newest directions in topological representation learning, that is, multi-persistence which simultaneously describes data shape evolution along multiple key parameters, and zigzag persistence to enable us to extract the most salient data shape information over time. We derive theoretical guarantees of TMP vectorizations and show its utility, in application to forecasting on benchmark traffic flow, Ethereum blockchain, and electrocardiogram datasets, demonstrating the competitive performance, especially, in scenarios of limited data records. In addition, our TMP method improves the computational efficiency of the state-of-the-art multipersistence summaries up to 59.5 times.

Personalized chatbot-based teaching assistants can be crucial in addressing increasing classroom sizes, especially where direct teacher presence is limited. Large language models (LLMs) offer a promising avenue, with increasing research exploring their educational utility. However, the challenge lies not only in establishing the efficacy of LLMs but also in discerning the nuances of interaction between learners and these models, which impact learners' engagement and results. We conducted a formative study in an undergraduate computer science classroom (N=145) and a controlled experiment on Prolific (N=356) to explore the impact of four pedagogically informed guidance strategies on the learners' performance, confidence and trust in LLMs. Direct LLM answers marginally improved performance, while refining student solutions fostered trust. Structured guidance reduced random queries as well as instances of students copy-pasting assignment questions to the LLM. Our work highlights the role that teachers can play in shaping LLM-supported learning environments.

With the rapid proliferation of textual data, predicting long texts has emerged as a significant challenge in the domain of natural language processing. Traditional text prediction methods encounter substantial difficulties when grappling with long texts, primarily due to the presence of redundant and irrelevant information, which impedes the model's capacity to capture pivotal insights from the text. To address this issue, we introduce a novel approach to long-text classification and prediction. Initially, we employ embedding techniques to condense the long texts, aiming to diminish the redundancy therein. Subsequently,the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) embedding method is utilized for text classification training. Experimental outcomes indicate that our method realizes considerable performance enhancements in classifying long texts of Preferential Trade Agreements. Furthermore, the condensation of text through embedding methods not only augments prediction accuracy but also substantially reduces computational complexity. Overall, this paper presents a strategy for long-text prediction, offering a valuable reference for researchers and engineers in the natural language processing sphere.

A community reveals the features and connections of its members that are different from those in other communities in a network. Detecting communities is of great significance in network analysis. Despite the classical spectral clustering and statistical inference methods, we notice a significant development of deep learning techniques for community detection in recent years with their advantages in handling high dimensional network data. Hence, a comprehensive overview of community detection's latest progress through deep learning is timely to both academics and practitioners. This survey devises and proposes a new taxonomy covering different categories of the state-of-the-art methods, including deep learning-based models upon deep neural networks, deep nonnegative matrix factorization and deep sparse filtering. The main category, i.e., deep neural networks, is further divided into convolutional networks, graph attention networks, generative adversarial networks and autoencoders. The survey also summarizes the popular benchmark data sets, model evaluation metrics, and open-source implementations to address experimentation settings. We then discuss the practical applications of community detection in various domains and point to implementation scenarios. Finally, we outline future directions by suggesting challenging topics in this fast-growing deep learning field.

Knowledge graphs capture interlinked information between entities and they represent an attractive source of structured information that can be harnessed for recommender systems. However, existing recommender engines use knowledge graphs by manually designing features, do not allow for end-to-end training, or provide poor scalability. Here we propose Knowledge Graph Convolutional Networks (KGCN), an end-to-end trainable framework that harnesses item relationships captured by the knowledge graph to provide better recommendations. Conceptually, KGCN computes user-specific item embeddings by first applying a trainable function that identifies important knowledge graph relations for a given user and then transforming the knowledge graph into a user-specific weighted graph. Then, KGCN applies a graph convolutional neural network that computes an embedding of an item node by propagating and aggregating knowledge graph neighborhood information. Moreover, to provide better inductive bias KGCN uses label smoothness (LS), which provides regularization over edge weights and we prove that it is equivalent to label propagation scheme on a graph. Finally, We unify KGCN and LS regularization, and present a scalable minibatch implementation for KGCN-LS model. Experiments show that KGCN-LS outperforms strong baselines in four datasets. KGCN-LS also achieves great performance in sparse scenarios and is highly scalable with respect to the knowledge graph size.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been found to be vulnerable to adversarial examples resulting from adding small-magnitude perturbations to inputs. Such adversarial examples can mislead DNNs to produce adversary-selected results. Different attack strategies have been proposed to generate adversarial examples, but how to produce them with high perceptual quality and more efficiently requires more research efforts. In this paper, we propose AdvGAN to generate adversarial examples with generative adversarial networks (GANs), which can learn and approximate the distribution of original instances. For AdvGAN, once the generator is trained, it can generate adversarial perturbations efficiently for any instance, so as to potentially accelerate adversarial training as defenses. We apply AdvGAN in both semi-whitebox and black-box attack settings. In semi-whitebox attacks, there is no need to access the original target model after the generator is trained, in contrast to traditional white-box attacks. In black-box attacks, we dynamically train a distilled model for the black-box model and optimize the generator accordingly. Adversarial examples generated by AdvGAN on different target models have high attack success rate under state-of-the-art defenses compared to other attacks. Our attack has placed the first with 92.76% accuracy on a public MNIST black-box attack challenge.