Evaluating the performance of human is a common need across many applications, such as in engineering and sports. When evaluating human performance in completing complex and interactive tasks, the most common way is to use a metric having been proved efficient for that context, or to use subjective measurement techniques. However, this can be an error prone and unreliable process since static metrics cannot capture all the complex contexts associated with such tasks and biases exist in subjective measurement. The objective of our research is to create data-driven AI agents as computational benchmarks to evaluate human performance in solving difficult tasks involving multiple humans and contextual factors. We demonstrate this within the context of football performance analysis. We train a generative model based on Conditional Variational Recurrent Neural Network (VRNN) Model on a large player and ball tracking dataset. The trained model is used to imitate the interactions between two teams and predict the performance from each team. Then the trained Conditional VRNN Model is used as a benchmark to evaluate team performance. The experimental results on Premier League football dataset demonstrates the usefulness of our method to existing state-of-the-art static metric used in football analytics.
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Bayesian inference is a powerful tool for combining information in complex settings, a task of increasing importance in modern applications. However, Bayesian inference with a flawed model can produce unreliable conclusions. This review discusses approaches to performing Bayesian inference when the model is misspecified, where by misspecified we mean that the analyst is unwilling to act as if the model is correct. Much has been written about this topic, and in most cases we do not believe that a conventional Bayesian analysis is meaningful when there is serious model misspecification. Nevertheless, in some cases it is possible to use a well-specified model to give meaning to a Bayesian analysis of a misspecified model and we will focus on such cases. Three main classes of methods are discussed - restricted likelihood methods, which use a model based on a non-sufficient summary of the original data; modular inference methods which use a model constructed from coupled submodels and some of the submodels are correctly specified; and the use of a reference model to construct a projected posterior or predictive distribution for a simplified model considered to be useful for prediction or interpretation.
Solving decision problems in complex, stochastic environments is often achieved by estimating the expected outcome of decisions via Monte Carlo sampling. However, sampling may overlook rare, but important events, which can severely impact the decision making process. We present a method in which a Normalizing Flow generative model is trained to simulate samples directly from a conditional distribution given that a rare event occurs. By utilizing Coupling Flows, our model can, in principle, approximate any sampling distribution arbitrarily well. By combining the approximation method with Importance Sampling, highly accurate estimates of complicated integrals and expectations can be obtained. We include several examples to demonstrate how the method can be used for efficient sampling and estimation, even in high-dimensional and rare-event settings. We illustrate that by simulating directly from a rare-event distribution significant insight can be gained into the way rare events happen.
Large generative AI models (LGAIMs), such as ChatGPT, GPT-4 or Stable Diffusion, are rapidly transforming the way we communicate, illustrate, and create. However, AI regulation, in the EU and beyond, has primarily focused on conventional AI models, not LGAIMs. This paper will situate these new generative models in the current debate on trustworthy AI regulation, and ask how the law can be tailored to their capabilities. After laying technical foundations, the legal part of the paper proceeds in four steps, covering (1) direct regulation, (2) data protection, (3) content moderation, and (4) policy proposals. It suggests a novel terminology to capture the AI value chain in LGAIM settings by differentiating between LGAIM developers, deployers, professional and non-professional users, as well as recipients of LGAIM output. We tailor regulatory duties to these different actors along the value chain and suggest strategies to ensure that LGAIMs are trustworthy and deployed for the benefit of society at large. Rules in the AI Act and other direct regulation must match the specificities of pre-trained models. The paper argues for three layers of obligations concerning LGAIMs (minimum standards for all LGAIMs; high-risk obligations for high-risk use cases; collaborations along the AI value chain). In general, regulation should focus on concrete high-risk applications, and not the pre-trained model itself, and should include (i) obligations regarding transparency and (ii) risk management. Non-discrimination provisions (iii) may, however, apply to LGAIM developers. Lastly, (iv) the core of the DSA content moderation rules should be expanded to cover LGAIMs. This includes notice and action mechanisms, and trusted flaggers. In all areas, regulators and lawmakers need to act fast to keep track with the dynamics of ChatGPT et al.
Lexical matching remains the de facto evaluation method for open-domain question answering (QA). Unfortunately, lexical matching fails completely when a plausible candidate answer does not appear in the list of gold answers, which is increasingly the case as we shift from extractive to generative models. The recent success of large language models (LLMs) for QA aggravates lexical matching failures since candidate answers become longer, thereby making matching with the gold answers even more challenging. Without accurate evaluation, the true progress in open-domain QA remains unknown. In this paper, we conduct a thorough analysis of various open-domain QA models, including LLMs, by manually evaluating their answers on a subset of NQ-open, a popular benchmark. Our assessments reveal that while the true performance of all models is significantly underestimated, the performance of the InstructGPT (zero-shot) LLM increases by nearly +60%, making it on par with existing top models, and the InstructGPT (few-shot) model actually achieves a new state-of-the-art on NQ-open. We also find that more than 50% of lexical matching failures are attributed to semantically equivalent answers. We further demonstrate that regex matching ranks QA models consistent with human judgments, although still suffering from unnecessary strictness. Finally, we demonstrate that automated evaluation models are a reasonable surrogate for lexical matching in some circumstances, but not for long-form answers generated by LLMs. The automated models struggle in detecting hallucinations in LLM answers and are thus unable to evaluate LLMs. At this time, there appears to be no substitute for human evaluation.
The most recent large language models such as ChatGPT and GPT-4 have garnered significant attention, as they are capable of generating high-quality responses to human input. Despite the extensive testing of ChatGPT and GPT-4 on generic text corpora, showcasing their impressive capabilities, a study focusing on financial corpora has not been conducted. In this study, we aim to bridge this gap by examining the potential of ChatGPT and GPT-4 as a solver for typical financial text analytic problems in the zero-shot or few-shot setting. Specifically, we assess their capabilities on four representative tasks over five distinct financial textual datasets. The preliminary study shows that ChatGPT and GPT-4 struggle on tasks such as financial named entity recognition (NER) and sentiment analysis, where domain-specific knowledge is required, while they excel in numerical reasoning tasks. We report both the strengths and limitations of the current versions of ChatGPT and GPT-4, comparing them to the state-of-the-art finetuned models as well as pretrained domain-specific generative models. Our experiments provide qualitative studies, through which we hope to help understand the capability of the existing models and facilitate further improvements.
Graphs are important data representations for describing objects and their relationships, which appear in a wide diversity of real-world scenarios. As one of a critical problem in this area, graph generation considers learning the distributions of given graphs and generating more novel graphs. Owing to their wide range of applications, generative models for graphs, which have a rich history, however, are traditionally hand-crafted and only capable of modeling a few statistical properties of graphs. Recent advances in deep generative models for graph generation is an important step towards improving the fidelity of generated graphs and paves the way for new kinds of applications. This article provides an extensive overview of the literature in the field of deep generative models for graph generation. Firstly, the formal definition of deep generative models for the graph generation and the preliminary knowledge are provided. Secondly, taxonomies of deep generative models for both unconditional and conditional graph generation are proposed respectively; the existing works of each are compared and analyzed. After that, an overview of the evaluation metrics in this specific domain is provided. Finally, the applications that deep graph generation enables are summarized and five promising future research directions are highlighted.
Knowledge graph embedding models learn the representations of entities and relations in the knowledge graphs for predicting missing links (relations) between entities. Their effectiveness are deeply affected by the ability of modeling and inferring different relation patterns such as symmetry, asymmetry, inversion, composition and transitivity. Although existing models are already able to model many of these relations patterns, transitivity, a very common relation pattern, is still not been fully supported. In this paper, we first theoretically show that the transitive relations can be modeled with projections. We then propose the Rot-Pro model which combines the projection and relational rotation together. We prove that Rot-Pro can infer all the above relation patterns. Experimental results show that the proposed Rot-Pro model effectively learns the transitivity pattern and achieves the state-of-the-art results on the link prediction task in the datasets containing transitive relations.
Dialogue systems are a popular Natural Language Processing (NLP) task as it is promising in real-life applications. It is also a complicated task since many NLP tasks deserving study are involved. As a result, a multitude of novel works on this task are carried out, and most of them are deep learning-based due to the outstanding performance. In this survey, we mainly focus on the deep learning-based dialogue systems. We comprehensively review state-of-the-art research outcomes in dialogue systems and analyze them from two angles: model type and system type. Specifically, from the angle of model type, we discuss the principles, characteristics, and applications of different models that are widely used in dialogue systems. This will help researchers acquaint these models and see how they are applied in state-of-the-art frameworks, which is rather helpful when designing a new dialogue system. From the angle of system type, we discuss task-oriented and open-domain dialogue systems as two streams of research, providing insight into the hot topics related. Furthermore, we comprehensively review the evaluation methods and datasets for dialogue systems to pave the way for future research. Finally, some possible research trends are identified based on the recent research outcomes. To the best of our knowledge, this survey is the most comprehensive and up-to-date one at present in the area of dialogue systems and dialogue-related tasks, extensively covering the popular frameworks, topics, and datasets.
In humans, Attention is a core property of all perceptual and cognitive operations. Given our limited ability to process competing sources, attention mechanisms select, modulate, and focus on the information most relevant to behavior. For decades, concepts and functions of attention have been studied in philosophy, psychology, neuroscience, and computing. For the last six years, this property has been widely explored in deep neural networks. Currently, the state-of-the-art in Deep Learning is represented by neural attention models in several application domains. This survey provides a comprehensive overview and analysis of developments in neural attention models. We systematically reviewed hundreds of architectures in the area, identifying and discussing those in which attention has shown a significant impact. We also developed and made public an automated methodology to facilitate the development of reviews in the area. By critically analyzing 650 works, we describe the primary uses of attention in convolutional, recurrent networks and generative models, identifying common subgroups of uses and applications. Furthermore, we describe the impact of attention in different application domains and their impact on neural networks' interpretability. Finally, we list possible trends and opportunities for further research, hoping that this review will provide a succinct overview of the main attentional models in the area and guide researchers in developing future approaches that will drive further improvements.
The growing energy and performance costs of deep learning have driven the community to reduce the size of neural networks by selectively pruning components. Similarly to their biological counterparts, sparse networks generalize just as well, if not better than, the original dense networks. Sparsity can reduce the memory footprint of regular networks to fit mobile devices, as well as shorten training time for ever growing networks. In this paper, we survey prior work on sparsity in deep learning and provide an extensive tutorial of sparsification for both inference and training. We describe approaches to remove and add elements of neural networks, different training strategies to achieve model sparsity, and mechanisms to exploit sparsity in practice. Our work distills ideas from more than 300 research papers and provides guidance to practitioners who wish to utilize sparsity today, as well as to researchers whose goal is to push the frontier forward. We include the necessary background on mathematical methods in sparsification, describe phenomena such as early structure adaptation, the intricate relations between sparsity and the training process, and show techniques for achieving acceleration on real hardware. We also define a metric of pruned parameter efficiency that could serve as a baseline for comparison of different sparse networks. We close by speculating on how sparsity can improve future workloads and outline major open problems in the field.
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