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In order to improve the vessel's capacity and ensure maritime traffic safety, vessel intelligent trajectory prediction plays an essential role in the vessel's smart navigation and intelligent collision avoidance system. However, current researchers only focus on short-term or long-term vessel trajectory prediction, which leads to insufficient accuracy of trajectory prediction and lack of in-depth mining of comprehensive historical trajectory data. This paper proposes an Automatic Identification System (AIS) data-driven long short-term memory (LSTM) method based on the fusion of the forward sub-network and the reverse sub-network (termed as FRA-LSTM) to predict the vessel trajectory. The forward sub-network in our method combines LSTM and attention mechanism to mine features of forward historical trajectory data. Simultaneously, the reverse sub-network combines bi-directional LSTM (BiLSTM) and attention mechanism to mine features of backward historical trajectory data. Finally, the final predicted trajectory is generated by fusing output features of the forward and reverse sub-network. Based on plenty of experiments, we prove that the accuracy of our proposed method in predicting short-term and mid-term trajectories has increased by 96.8% and 86.5% on average compared with the BiLSTM and Seq2seq. Furthermore, the average accuracy of our method is 90.1% higher than that of compared the BiLSTM and Seq2seq in predicting long-term trajectories.

Software crowdsourcing platforms employ extrinsic rewards such as rating or ranking systems to motivate workers. Such rating systems are noisy and provide limited knowledge about workers' preferences and performance. To develop better understanding of worker reliability and trustworthiness in software crowdsourcing, this paper reports an empirical study conducted on more than one year's real-world data from TopCoder, one of the leading software crowdsourcing platforms. To do so, first, we create a bipartite network of active workers based on common task registrations. Then, we use the Clauset-Newman-Moore graph clustering algorithm to identify worker clusters in the network. Finally, we conduct an empirical evaluation to measure and analyze workers' behavior per identified community in the platform by workers' rating. More specifically, workers' behavior is analyzed based on their performances in terms of reliability, trustworthiness, and success; their preferences in terms of efficiency and elasticity; and strategies in terms of comfort, confidence, and deceitfulness. The main result of this study identified four communities of active workers: mixed-ranked, high-ranked, mid-ranked, and low-ranked. This study shows that the low-ranked community associates with the highest reliable workers with an average reliability of 25%, while the mixed-ranked community contains the most trustworthy workers with average trustworthiness of 16%. Such empirical evidence is beneficial to help exploring resourcing options while understanding the relations among unknown resources to improve task success.

Accurate long-term trajectory prediction in complex scenes, where multiple agents (e.g., pedestrians or vehicles) interact with each other and the environment while attempting to accomplish diverse and often unknown goals, is a challenging stochastic forecasting problem. In this work, we propose MUSE, a new probabilistic modeling framework based on a cascade of Conditional VAEs, which tackles the long-term, uncertain trajectory prediction task using a coarse-to-fine multi-factor forecasting architecture. In its Macro stage, the model learns a joint pixel-space representation of two key factors, the underlying environment and the agent movements, to predict the long and short-term motion goals. Conditioned on them, the Micro stage learns a fine-grained spatio-temporal representation for the prediction of individual agent trajectories. The VAE backbones across the two stages make it possible to naturally account for the joint uncertainty at both levels of granularity. As a result, MUSE offers diverse and simultaneously more accurate predictions compared to the current state-of-the-art. We demonstrate these assertions through a comprehensive set of experiments on nuScenes and SDD benchmarks as well as PFSD, a new synthetic dataset, which challenges the forecasting ability of models on complex agent-environment interaction scenarios.

Predicting the future motion of surrounding road users is a crucial and challenging task for autonomous driving (AD) and various advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). Planning a safe future trajectory heavily depends on understanding the traffic scene and anticipating its dynamics. The challenges do not only lie in understanding the complex driving scenarios but also the numerous possible interactions among road users and environments, which are practically not feasible for explicit modeling. In this work, we tackle the above challenges by jointly learning and predicting the motion of all road users in a scene, using a novel convolutional neural network (CNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN) based architecture. Moreover, by exploiting grid-based input and output data structures, the computational cost is independent of the number of road users and multi-modal predictions become inherent properties of our proposed method. Evaluation on the nuScenes dataset shows that our approach reaches state-of-the-art results in the prediction benchmark.

3D convolutional neural networks have achieved promising results for video tasks in computer vision, including video saliency prediction that is explored in this paper. However, 3D convolution encodes visual representation merely on fixed local spacetime according to its kernel size, while human attention is always attracted by relational visual features at different time. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel Spatio-Temporal Self-Attention 3D Network (STSANet) for video saliency prediction, in which multiple Spatio-Temporal Self-Attention (STSA) modules are employed at different levels of 3D convolutional backbone to directly capture long-range relations between spatio-temporal features of different time steps. Besides, we propose an Attentional Multi-Scale Fusion (AMSF) module to integrate multi-level features with the perception of context in semantic and spatio-temporal subspaces. Extensive experiments demonstrate the contributions of key components of our method, and the results on DHF1K, Hollywood-2, UCF, and DIEM benchmark datasets clearly prove the superiority of the proposed model compared with all state-of-the-art models.

Stock prices move as piece-wise trending fluctuation rather than a purely random walk. Traditionally, the prediction of future stock movements is based on the historical trading record. Nowadays, with the development of social media, many active participants in the market choose to publicize their strategies, which provides a window to glimpse over the whole market's attitude towards future movements by extracting the semantics behind social media. However, social media contains conflicting information and cannot replace historical records completely. In this work, we propose a multi-modality attention network to reduce conflicts and integrate semantic and numeric features to predict future stock movements comprehensively. Specifically, we first extract semantic information from social media and estimate their credibility based on posters' identity and public reputation. Then we incorporate the semantic from online posts and numeric features from historical records to make the trading strategy. Experimental results show that our approach outperforms previous methods by a significant margin in both prediction accuracy (61.20\%) and trading profits (9.13\%). It demonstrates that our method improves the performance of stock movements prediction and informs future research on multi-modality fusion towards stock prediction.

CTR prediction, which aims to estimate the probability that a user will click an item, plays a crucial role in online advertising and recommender system. Feature interaction modeling based and user interest mining based methods are the two kinds of most popular techniques that have been extensively explored for many years and have made great progress for CTR prediction. However, (1) feature interaction based methods which rely heavily on the co-occurrence of different features, may suffer from the feature sparsity problem (i.e., many features appear few times); (2) user interest mining based methods which need rich user behaviors to obtain user's diverse interests, are easy to encounter the behavior sparsity problem (i.e., many users have very short behavior sequences). To solve these problems, we propose a novel module named Dual Graph enhanced Embedding, which is compatible with various CTR prediction models to alleviate these two problems. We further propose a Dual Graph enhanced Embedding Neural Network (DG-ENN) for CTR prediction. Dual Graph enhanced Embedding exploits the strengths of graph representation with two carefully designed learning strategies (divide-and-conquer, curriculum-learning-inspired organized learning) to refine the embedding. We conduct comprehensive experiments on three real-world industrial datasets. The experimental results show that our proposed DG-ENN significantly outperforms state-of-the-art CTR prediction models. Moreover, when applying to state-of-the-art CTR prediction models, Dual graph enhanced embedding always obtains better performance. Further case studies prove that our proposed dual graph enhanced embedding could alleviate the feature sparsity and behavior sparsity problems. Our framework will be open-source based on MindSpore in the near future.

We develop a novel human trajectory prediction system that incorporates the scene information (Scene-LSTM) as well as individual pedestrian movement (Pedestrian-LSTM) trained simultaneously within static crowded scenes. We superimpose a two-level grid structure (grid cells and subgrids) on the scene to encode spatial granularity plus common human movements. The Scene-LSTM captures the commonly traveled paths that can be used to significantly influence the accuracy of human trajectory prediction in local areas (i.e. grid cells). We further design scene data filters, consisting of a hard filter and a soft filter, to select the relevant scene information in a local region when necessary and combine it with Pedestrian-LSTM for forecasting a pedestrian's future locations. The experimental results on several publicly available datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms related works and can produce more accurate predicted trajectories in different scene contexts.

Predicting the future trajectories of multiple interacting agents in a scene has become an increasingly important problem for many different applications ranging from control of autonomous vehicles and social robots to security and surveillance. This problem is compounded by the presence of social interactions between humans and their physical interactions with the scene. While the existing literature has explored some of these cues, they mainly ignored the multimodal nature of each human's future trajectory. In this paper, we present Social-BiGAT, a graph-based generative adversarial network that generates realistic, multimodal trajectory predictions by better modelling the social interactions of pedestrians in a scene. Our method is based on a graph attention network (GAT) that learns reliable feature representations that encode the social interactions between humans in the scene, and a recurrent encoder-decoder architecture that is trained adversarially to predict, based on the features, the humans' paths. We explicitly account for the multimodal nature of the prediction problem by forming a reversible transformation between each scene and its latent noise vector, as in Bicycle-GAN. We show that our framework achieves state-of-the-art performance comparing it to several baselines on existing trajectory forecasting benchmarks.

To address the sparsity and cold start problem of collaborative filtering, researchers usually make use of side information, such as social networks or item attributes, to improve recommendation performance. This paper considers the knowledge graph as the source of side information. To address the limitations of existing embedding-based and path-based methods for knowledge-graph-aware recommendation, we propose Ripple Network, an end-to-end framework that naturally incorporates the knowledge graph into recommender systems. Similar to actual ripples propagating on the surface of water, Ripple Network stimulates the propagation of user preferences over the set of knowledge entities by automatically and iteratively extending a user's potential interests along links in the knowledge graph. The multiple "ripples" activated by a user's historically clicked items are thus superposed to form the preference distribution of the user with respect to a candidate item, which could be used for predicting the final clicking probability. Through extensive experiments on real-world datasets, we demonstrate that Ripple Network achieves substantial gains in a variety of scenarios, including movie, book and news recommendation, over several state-of-the-art baselines.