Evaluation of intervention in a multi-agent system, e.g., when humans should intervene in autonomous driving systems and when a player should pass to teammates for a good shot, is challenging in various engineering and scientific fields. Estimating the individual treatment effect (ITE) using counterfactual long-term prediction is practical to evaluate such interventions. However, most of the conventional frameworks did not consider the time-varying complex structure of multi-agent relationships and covariate counterfactual prediction. This may sometimes lead to erroneous assessments of ITE and interpretation problems. Here we propose an interpretable, counterfactual recurrent network in multi-agent systems to estimate the effect of the intervention. Our model leverages graph variational recurrent neural networks and theory-based computation with domain knowledge for the ITE estimation framework based on long-term prediction of multi-agent covariates and outcomes, which can confirm under the circumstances under which the intervention is effective. On simulated models of an automated vehicle and biological agents with time-varying confounders, we show that our methods achieved lower estimation errors in counterfactual covariates and the most effective treatment timing than the baselines. Furthermore, using real basketball data, our methods performed realistic counterfactual predictions and evaluated the counterfactual passes in shot scenarios.
It has been rightfully emphasized that the use of AI for clinical decision making could amplify health disparities. An algorithm may encode protected characteristics, and then use this information for making predictions due to undesirable correlations in the (historical) training data. It remains unclear how we can establish whether such information is actually used. Besides the scarcity of data from underserved populations, very little is known about how dataset biases manifest in predictive models and how this may result in disparate performance. This article aims to shed some light on these issues by exploring new methodology for subgroup analysis in image-based disease detection models. We utilize two publicly available chest X-ray datasets, CheXpert and MIMIC-CXR, to study performance disparities across race and biological sex in deep learning models. We explore test set resampling, transfer learning, multitask learning, and model inspection to assess the relationship between the encoding of protected characteristics and disease detection performance across subgroups. We confirm subgroup disparities in terms of shifted true and false positive rates which are partially removed after correcting for population and prevalence shifts in the test sets. We further find a previously used transfer learning method to be insufficient for establishing whether specific patient information is used for making predictions. The proposed combination of test-set resampling, multitask learning, and model inspection reveals valuable new insights about the way protected characteristics are encoded in the feature representations of deep neural networks.
With an increasing number of elders living alone, care-giving from a distance becomes a compelling need, particularly for safety. Real-time monitoring and action recognition are essential to raise an alert timely when abnormal behaviors or unusual activities occur. While wearable sensors are widely recognized as a promising solution, highly depending on user's ability and willingness makes them inefficient. In contrast, video streams collected through non-contact optical cameras provide richer information and release the burden on elders. In this paper, leveraging the Independently-Recurrent neural Network (IndRNN) we propose a novel Real-time Elderly Monitoring for senior Safety (REMS) based on lightweight human action recognition (HAR) technology. Using captured skeleton images, the REMS scheme is able to recognize abnormal behaviors or actions and preserve the user's privacy. To achieve high accuracy, the HAR module is trained and fine-tuned using multiple databases. An extensive experimental study verified that REMS system performs action recognition accurately and timely. REMS meets the design goals as a privacy-preserving elderly safety monitoring system and possesses the potential to be adopted in various smart monitoring systems.
Precision medicine for chronic diseases such as multiple sclerosis (MS) involves choosing a treatment which best balances efficacy and side effects/preferences for individual patients. Making this choice as early as possible is important, as delays in finding an effective therapy can lead to irreversible disability accrual. To this end, we present the first deep neural network model for individualized treatment decisions from baseline magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) (with clinical information if available) for MS patients. Our model (a) predicts future new and enlarging T2 weighted (NE-T2) lesion counts on follow-up MRI on multiple treatments and (b) estimates the conditional average treatment effect (CATE), as defined by the predicted future suppression of NE-T2 lesions, between different treatment options relative to placebo. Our model is validated on a proprietary federated dataset of 1817 multi-sequence MRIs acquired from MS patients during four multi-centre randomized clinical trials. Our framework achieves high average precision in the binarized regression of future NE-T2 lesions on five different treatments, identifies heterogeneous treatment effects, and provides a personalized treatment recommendation that accounts for treatment-associated risk (e.g. side effects, patient preference, administration difficulties).
This study demonstrates the existence of a testable condition for the identification of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data, which relies on two sets of variables: observed covariates to be controlled for and a suspected instrument. Under a causal structure commonly found in empirical applications, the testable conditional independence of the suspected instrument and the outcome given the treatment and the covariates has two implications. First, the instrument is valid, i.e. it does not directly affect the outcome (other than through the treatment) and is unconfounded conditional on the covariates. Second, the treatment is unconfounded conditional on the covariates such that the treatment effect is identified. We suggest tests of this conditional independence based on machine learning methods that account for covariates in a data-driven way and investigate their asymptotic behavior and finite sample performance in a simulation study. We also apply our testing approach to evaluating the impact of fertility on female labor supply when using the sibling sex ratio of the first two children as supposed instrument, which by and large points to a violation of our testable implication for the moderate set of socio-economic covariates considered.
Explanation mechanisms from the field of Counterfactual Thinking are a widely-used paradigm for Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), as they follow a natural way of reasoning that humans are familiar with. However, all common approaches from this field are based on communicating information about features or characteristics that are especially important for an AI's decision. We argue that in order to fully understand a decision, not only knowledge about relevant features is needed, but that the awareness of irrelevant information also highly contributes to the creation of a user's mental model of an AI system. Therefore, we introduce a new way of explaining AI systems. Our approach, which we call Alterfactual Explanations, is based on showing an alternative reality where irrelevant features of an AI's input are altered. By doing so, the user directly sees which characteristics of the input data can change arbitrarily without influencing the AI's decision. We evaluate our approach in an extensive user study, revealing that it is able to significantly contribute to the participants' understanding of an AI. We show that alterfactual explanations are suited to convey an understanding of different aspects of the AI's reasoning than established counterfactual explanation methods.
Dynamic Time Warping is arguably the most popular similarity measure for time series, where we define a time series to be a one-dimensional polygonal curve. The drawback of Dynamic Time Warping is that it is sensitive to the sampling rate of the time series. The Fr\'echet distance is an alternative that has gained popularity, however, its drawback is that it is sensitive to outliers. Continuous Dynamic Time Warping (CDTW) is a recently proposed alternative that does not exhibit the aforementioned drawbacks. CDTW combines the continuous nature of the Fr\'echet distance with the summation of Dynamic Time Warping, resulting in a similarity measure that is robust to sampling rate and to outliers. In a recent experimental work of Brankovic et al., it was demonstrated that clustering under CDTW avoids the unwanted artifacts that appear when clustering under Dynamic Time Warping and under the Fr\'echet distance. Despite its advantages, the major shortcoming of CDTW is that there is no exact algorithm for computing CDTW, in polynomial time or otherwise. In this work, we present the first exact algorithm for computing CDTW of one-dimensional curves. Our algorithm runs in time $O(n^5)$ for a pair of one-dimensional curves, each with complexity at most $n$. In our algorithm, we propagate continuous functions in the dynamic program for CDTW, where the main difficulty lies in bounding the complexity of the functions. We believe that our result is an important first step towards CDTW becoming a practical similarity measure between curves.
Structural data well exists in Web applications, such as social networks in social media, citation networks in academic websites, and threads data in online forums. Due to the complex topology, it is difficult to process and make use of the rich information within such data. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown great advantages on learning representations for structural data. However, the non-transparency of the deep learning models makes it non-trivial to explain and interpret the predictions made by GNNs. Meanwhile, it is also a big challenge to evaluate the GNN explanations, since in many cases, the ground-truth explanations are unavailable. In this paper, we take insights of Counterfactual and Factual (CF^2) reasoning from causal inference theory, to solve both the learning and evaluation problems in explainable GNNs. For generating explanations, we propose a model-agnostic framework by formulating an optimization problem based on both of the two casual perspectives. This distinguishes CF^2 from previous explainable GNNs that only consider one of them. Another contribution of the work is the evaluation of GNN explanations. For quantitatively evaluating the generated explanations without the requirement of ground-truth, we design metrics based on Counterfactual and Factual reasoning to evaluate the necessity and sufficiency of the explanations. Experiments show that no matter ground-truth explanations are available or not, CF^2 generates better explanations than previous state-of-the-art methods on real-world datasets. Moreover, the statistic analysis justifies the correlation between the performance on ground-truth evaluation and our proposed metrics.
We describe ACE0, a lightweight platform for evaluating the suitability and viability of AI methods for behaviour discovery in multiagent simulations. Specifically, ACE0 was designed to explore AI methods for multi-agent simulations used in operations research studies related to new technologies such as autonomous aircraft. Simulation environments used in production are often high-fidelity, complex, require significant domain knowledge and as a result have high R&D costs. Minimal and lightweight simulation environments can help researchers and engineers evaluate the viability of new AI technologies for behaviour discovery in a more agile and potentially cost effective manner. In this paper we describe the motivation for the development of ACE0.We provide a technical overview of the system architecture, describe a case study of behaviour discovery in the aerospace domain, and provide a qualitative evaluation of the system. The evaluation includes a brief description of collaborative research projects with academic partners, exploring different AI behaviour discovery methods.
Recent VQA models may tend to rely on language bias as a shortcut and thus fail to sufficiently learn the multi-modal knowledge from both vision and language. In this paper, we investigate how to capture and mitigate language bias in VQA. Motivated by causal effects, we proposed a novel counterfactual inference framework, which enables us to capture the language bias as the direct causal effect of questions on answers and reduce the language bias by subtracting the direct language effect from the total causal effect. Experiments demonstrate that our proposed counterfactual inference framework 1) is general to various VQA backbones and fusion strategies, 2) achieves competitive performance on the language-bias sensitive VQA-CP dataset while performs robustly on the balanced VQA v2 dataset.
Machine learning plays a role in many deployed decision systems, often in ways that are difficult or impossible to understand by human stakeholders. Explaining, in a human-understandable way, the relationship between the input and output of machine learning models is essential to the development of trustworthy machine-learning-based systems. A burgeoning body of research seeks to define the goals and methods of explainability in machine learning. In this paper, we seek to review and categorize research on counterfactual explanations, a specific class of explanation that provides a link between what could have happened had input to a model been changed in a particular way. Modern approaches to counterfactual explainability in machine learning draw connections to the established legal doctrine in many countries, making them appealing to fielded systems in high-impact areas such as finance and healthcare. Thus, we design a rubric with desirable properties of counterfactual explanation algorithms and comprehensively evaluate all currently-proposed algorithms against that rubric. Our rubric provides easy comparison and comprehension of the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches and serves as an introduction to major research themes in this field. We also identify gaps and discuss promising research directions in the space of counterfactual explainability.