We consider the problem of chance constrained optimization where it is sought to optimize a function and satisfy constraints, both of which are affected by uncertainties. The real world declinations of this problem are particularly challenging because of their inherent computational cost. To tackle such problems, we propose a new Bayesian optimization method. It applies to the situation where the uncertainty comes from some of the inputs, so that it becomes possible to define an acquisition criterion in the joint controlled-uncontrolled input space. The main contribution of this work is an acquisition criterion that accounts for both the average improvement in objective function and the constraint reliability. The criterion is derived following the Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction logic and its maximization provides both optimal controlled and uncontrolled parameters. Analytical expressions are given to efficiently calculate the criterion. Numerical studies on test functions are presented. It is found through experimental comparisons with alternative sampling criteria that the adequation between the sampling criterion and the problem contributes to the efficiency of the overall optimization. As a side result, an expression for the variance of the improvement is given.
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This study presents a Bayesian regression framework to model the relationship between scalar outcomes and brain functional connectivity represented as symmetric positive definite (SPD) matrices. Unlike many proposals that simply vectorize the connectivity predictors thereby ignoring their matrix structures, our method respects the Riemannian geometry of SPD matrices by modelling them in a tangent space. We perform dimension reduction in the tangent space, relating the resulting low-dimensional representations with the responses. The dimension reduction matrix is learnt in a supervised manner with a sparsity-inducing prior imposed on a Stiefel manifold to prevent overfitting. Our method yields a parsimonious regression model that allows uncertainty quantification of the estimates and identification of key brain regions that predict the outcomes. We demonstrate the performance of our approach in simulation settings and through a case study to predict Picture Vocabulary scores using data from the Human Connectome Project.
We consider a general multivariate model where univariate marginal distributions are known up to a parameter vector and we are interested in estimating that parameter vector without specifying the joint distribution, except for the marginals. If we assume independence between the marginals and maximize the resulting quasi-likelihood, we obtain a consistent but inefficient QMLE estimator. If we assume a parametric copula (other than independence) we obtain a full MLE, which is efficient but only under a correct copula specification and may be biased if the copula is misspecified. Instead we propose a sieve MLE estimator (SMLE) which improves over QMLE but does not have the drawbacks of full MLE. We model the unknown part of the joint distribution using the Bernstein-Kantorovich polynomial copula and assess the resulting improvement over QMLE and over misspecified FMLE in terms of relative efficiency and robustness. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the new estimator and show that it reaches the relevant semiparametric efficiency bound. Simulations suggest that the sieve MLE can be almost as efficient as FMLE relative to QMLE provided there is enough dependence between the marginals. We demonstrate practical value of the new estimator with several applications. First, we apply SMLE in an insurance context where we build a flexible semi-parametric claim loss model for a scenario where one of the variables is censored. As in simulations, the use of SMLE leads to tighter parameter estimates. Next, we consider financial risk management examples and show how the use of SMLE leads to superior Value-at-Risk predictions. The paper comes with an online archive which contains all codes and datasets.
Faithfully summarizing the knowledge encoded by a deep neural network (DNN) into a few symbolic primitive patterns without losing much information represents a core challenge in explainable AI. To this end, Ren et al. (2023c) have derived a series of theorems to prove that the inference score of a DNN can be explained as a small set of interactions between input variables. However, the lack of generalization power makes it still hard to consider such interactions as faithful primitive patterns encoded by the DNN. Therefore, given different DNNs trained for the same task, we develop a new method to extract interactions that are shared by these DNNs. Experiments show that the extracted interactions can better reflect common knowledge shared by different DNNs.
The representation of a dynamic problem in ASP usually boils down to using copies of variables and constraints, one for each time stamp, no matter whether it is directly encoded or via an action or temporal language. The multiplication of variables and constraints is commonly done during grounding and the solver is completely ignorant about the temporal relationship among the different instances. On the other hand, a key factor in the performance of today's ASP solvers is conflict-driven constraint learning. Our question is now whether a constraint learned for particular time steps can be generalized and reused at other time stamps, and ultimately whether this enhances the overall solver performance on temporal problems. Knowing full well the domain of time, we study conditions under which learned dynamic constraints can be generalized. We propose a simple translation of the original logic program such that, for the translated programs, the learned constraints can be generalized to other time points. Additionally, we identify a property of temporal problems that allows us to generalize all learned constraints to all time steps. It turns out that this property is satisfied by many planning problems. Finally, we empirically evaluate the impact of adding the generalized constraints to an ASP solver
Physiological fatigue, a state of reduced cognitive and physical performance resulting from prolonged mental or physical exertion, poses significant challenges in various domains, including healthcare, aviation, transportation, and industrial sectors. As the understanding of fatigue's impact on human performance grows, there is a growing interest in developing effective fatigue monitoring techniques. Among these techniques, electroencephalography (EEG) has emerged as a promising tool for objectively assessing physiological fatigue due to its non-invasiveness, high temporal resolution, and sensitivity to neural activity. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the current state of the use of EEG for monitoring physiological fatigue.
Mixtures of regression are a powerful class of models for regression learning with respect to a highly uncertain and heterogeneous response variable of interest. In addition to being a rich predictive model for the response given some covariates, the parameters in this model class provide useful information about the heterogeneity in the data population, which is represented by the conditional distributions for the response given the covariates associated with a number of distinct but latent subpopulations. In this paper, we investigate conditions of strong identifiability, rates of convergence for conditional density and parameter estimation, and the Bayesian posterior contraction behavior arising in finite mixture of regression models, under exact-fitted and over-fitted settings and when the number of components is unknown. This theory is applicable to common choices of link functions and families of conditional distributions employed by practitioners. We provide simulation studies and data illustrations, which shed some light on the parameter learning behavior found in several popular regression mixture models reported in the literature.
Necessary and sufficient conditions of uniform consistency are explored. A hypothesis is simple. Nonparametric sets of alternatives are bounded convex sets in $\mathbb{L}_p$, $p >1$ with "small" balls deleted. The "small" balls have the center at the point of hypothesis and radii of balls tend to zero as sample size increases. For problem of hypothesis testing on a density, we show that, for the sets of alternatives, there are uniformly consistent tests for some sequence of radii of the balls, if and only if, convex set is relatively compact. The results are established for problem of hypothesis testing on a density, for signal detection in Gaussian white noise, for linear ill-posed problems with random Gaussian noise and so on.
In the symbolic verification of cryptographic protocols, a central problem is deciding whether a protocol admits an execution which leaks a designated secret to the malicious intruder. Rusinowitch & Turuani (2003) show that, when considering finitely many sessions, this ``insecurity problem'' is NP-complete. Central to their proof strategy is the observation that any execution of a protocol can be simulated by one where the intruder only communicates terms of bounded size. However, when we consider models where, in addition to terms, one can also communicate logical statements about terms, the analysis of the insecurity problem becomes tricky when both these inference systems are considered together. In this paper we consider the insecurity problem for protocols with logical statements that include {\em equality on terms} and {\em existential quantification}. Witnesses for existential quantifiers may be unbounded, and obtaining small witness terms while maintaining equality proofs complicates the analysis considerably. We extend techniques from Rusinowitch & Turuani (2003) to show that this problem is also in NP.
We analyze the effects of enforcing vs. exempting access ISP from net neutrality regulations when platforms are present and operate two-sided pricing in their business models. This study is conducted in a scenario where users and Content Providers (CPs) have access to the internet by means of their serving ISPs and to a platform that intermediates and matches users and CPs, among other service offerings. Our hypothesis is that platform two-sided pricing interacts in a relevant manner with the access ISP, which may be allowed (an hypothetical non-neutrality scenario) or not (the current neutrality regulation status) to apply two-sided pricing on its service business model. We preliminarily conclude that the platforms are extracting surplus from the CPs under the current net neutrality regime for the ISP, and that the platforms would not be able to do so under the counter-factual situation where the ISPs could apply two-sided prices.
In this work, a Generalized Finite Difference (GFD) scheme is presented for effectively computing the numerical solution of a parabolic-elliptic system modelling a bacterial strain with density-suppressed motility. The GFD method is a meshless method known for its simplicity for solving non-linear boundary value problems over irregular geometries. The paper first introduces the basic elements of the GFD method, and then an explicit-implicit scheme is derived. The convergence of the method is proven under a bound for the time step, and an algorithm is provided for its computational implementation. Finally, some examples are considered comparing the results obtained with a regular mesh and an irregular cloud of points.
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