Nowadays, weather prediction is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to produce an ensemble of forecasts. Despite of large improvements over the last few decades, they still tend to exhibit systematic bias and dispersion errors. Consequently, these forecasts may be improved by statistical postprocessing. This work proposes an extension of the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) method in a time series framework. Besides of taking account of seasonality and trend in the location and scale parameter of the predictive distribution, the autoregressive process in the mean forecast errors or the standardized forecast errors is considered. The models can be further extended by allowing generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH). Last but not least, it is outlined how to use these models for arbitrary forecast horizons. To illustrate the performance of the suggested EMOS models in time series fashion, we present a case study for the postprocessing of 2 m surface temperature forecasts using five different lead times and a set of observation stations in Germany. The results indicate that the time series EMOS extensions are able to significantly outperform the benchmark EMOS and autoregressive adjusted EMOS (AR-EMOS) in most of the lead time-station cases. To complement this article, our method is accompanied by an R-package called tsEMOS.
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Self-supervised 3D representation learning aims to learn effective representations from large-scale unlabeled point clouds. Most existing approaches adopt point discrimination as the pretext task, which assigns matched points in two distinct views as positive pairs and unmatched points as negative pairs. However, this approach often results in semantically identical points having dissimilar representations, leading to a high number of false negatives and introducing a "semantic conflict" problem. To address this issue, we propose GroupContrast, a novel approach that combines segment grouping and semantic-aware contrastive learning. Segment grouping partitions points into semantically meaningful regions, which enhances semantic coherence and provides semantic guidance for the subsequent contrastive representation learning. Semantic-aware contrastive learning augments the semantic information extracted from segment grouping and helps to alleviate the issue of "semantic conflict". We conducted extensive experiments on multiple 3D scene understanding tasks. The results demonstrate that GroupContrast learns semantically meaningful representations and achieves promising transfer learning performance.
This article explores the latest Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for cloud detection aboard hyperspectral satellites. The performance of the latest 1D CNN (1D-Justo-LiuNet) and two recent 2D CNNs (nnU-net and 2D-Justo-UNet-Simple) for cloud segmentation and classification is assessed. Evaluation criteria include precision and computational efficiency for in-orbit deployment. Experiments utilize NASA's EO-1 Hyperion data, with varying spectral channel numbers after Principal Component Analysis. Results indicate that 1D-Justo-LiuNet achieves the highest accuracy, outperforming 2D CNNs, while maintaining compactness with larger spectral channel sets, albeit with increased inference times. However, the performance of 1D CNN degrades with significant channel reduction. In this context, the 2D-Justo-UNet-Simple offers the best balance for in-orbit deployment, considering precision, memory, and time costs. While nnU-net is suitable for on-ground processing, deployment of lightweight 1D-Justo-LiuNet is recommended for high-precision applications. Alternatively, lightweight 2D-Justo-UNet-Simple is recommended for balanced costs between timing and precision in orbit.
Wildfire forecasting is notoriously hard due to the complex interplay of different factors such as weather conditions, vegetation types and human activities. Deep learning models show promise in dealing with this complexity by learning directly from data. However, to inform critical decision making, we argue that we need models that are right for the right reasons; that is, the implicit rules learned should be grounded by the underlying processes driving wildfires. In that direction, we propose integrating causality with Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) that explicitly model the causal mechanism among complex variables via graph learning. The causal adjacency matrix considers the synergistic effect among variables and removes the spurious links from highly correlated impacts. Our methodology's effectiveness is demonstrated through superior performance forecasting wildfire patterns in the European boreal and mediterranean biome. The gain is especially prominent in a highly imbalanced dataset, showcasing an enhanced robustness of the model to adapt to regime shifts in functional relationships. Furthermore, SHAP values from our trained model further enhance our understanding of the model's inner workings.
Migrations of systems from on-site premises to the cloud has been a fundamental endeavor by many industrial institutions. A crucial component of such cloud migrations is the transition of databases to be hosted online. In this work, we consider the difficulties of this migration for SQL databases. While SQL is one of the prominent methods for storing database procedures, there are a plethora of different SQL dialects (e.g., MySQL, Postgres, etc.) which can complicate migrations when the on-premise SQL dialect differs to the dialect hosted on the cloud. Tools exist by common cloud provides such as AWS and Azure to aid in translating between dialects in order to mitigate the majority of the difficulties. However, these tools do not successfully translate $100\%$ of the code. Consequently, software engineers must manually convert the remainder of the untranslated database. For large organizations, this task quickly becomes intractable and so more innovative solutions are required. We consider this challenge a novel yet vital industrial research problem for any large corporation that is considering cloud migrations. Furthermore, we introduce potential avenues of research to tackle this challenge that have yielded promising preliminary results.
We investigate the performance of image-based pose regressor models in underwater environments for relocalization. Leveraging PoseNet and PoseLSTM, we regress a 6-degree-of-freedom pose from single RGB images with high accuracy. Additionally, we explore data augmentation with stereo camera images to improve model accuracy. Experimental results demonstrate that the models achieve high accuracy in both simulated and clear waters, promising effective real-world underwater navigation and inspection applications.
We propose a fast and simple explainable AI (XAI) method for point cloud data. It computes pointwise importance with respect to a trained network downstream task. This allows better understanding of the network properties, which is imperative for safety-critical applications. In addition to debugging and visualization, our low computational complexity facilitates online feedback to the network at inference. This can be used to reduce uncertainty and to increase robustness. In this work, we introduce \emph{Feature Based Interpretability} (FBI), where we compute the features' norm, per point, before the bottleneck. We analyze the use of gradients and post- and pre-bottleneck strategies, showing pre-bottleneck is preferred, in terms of smoothness and ranking. We obtain at least three orders of magnitude speedup, compared to current XAI methods, thus, scalable for big point clouds or large-scale architectures. Our approach achieves SOTA results, in terms of classification explainability. We demonstrate how the proposed measure is helpful in analyzing and characterizing various aspects of 3D learning, such as rotation invariance, robustness to out-of-distribution (OOD) outliers or domain shift and dataset bias.
Foundation models, such as Large language Models (LLMs), have attracted significant amount of interest due to their large number of applications. Existing works show that appropriate prompt design, such as Chain-of-Thoughts, can unlock LLM's powerful capacity in diverse areas. However, when handling tasks involving repetitive sub-tasks and/or deceptive contents, such as arithmetic calculation and article-level fake news detection, existing prompting strategies either suffers from insufficient expressive power or intermediate errors triggered by hallucination. To make LLM more discerning to such intermediate errors, we propose to guide LLM with a Divide-and-Conquer program that simultaneously ensures superior expressive power and disentangles task decomposition, sub-task resolution, and resolution assembly process. Theoretic analysis reveals that our strategy can guide LLM to extend the expressive power of fixed-depth Transformer. Experiments indicate that our proposed method can achieve better performance than typical prompting strategies in tasks bothered by intermediate errors and deceptive contents, such as large integer multiplication, hallucination detection and misinformation detection.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been shown to be effective models for different predictive tasks on graph-structured data. Recent work on their expressive power has focused on isomorphism tasks and countable feature spaces. We extend this theoretical framework to include continuous features - which occur regularly in real-world input domains and within the hidden layers of GNNs - and we demonstrate the requirement for multiple aggregation functions in this context. Accordingly, we propose Principal Neighbourhood Aggregation (PNA), a novel architecture combining multiple aggregators with degree-scalers (which generalize the sum aggregator). Finally, we compare the capacity of different models to capture and exploit the graph structure via a novel benchmark containing multiple tasks taken from classical graph theory, alongside existing benchmarks from real-world domains, all of which demonstrate the strength of our model. With this work, we hope to steer some of the GNN research towards new aggregation methods which we believe are essential in the search for powerful and robust models.
Visual Question Answering (VQA) models have struggled with counting objects in natural images so far. We identify a fundamental problem due to soft attention in these models as a cause. To circumvent this problem, we propose a neural network component that allows robust counting from object proposals. Experiments on a toy task show the effectiveness of this component and we obtain state-of-the-art accuracy on the number category of the VQA v2 dataset without negatively affecting other categories, even outperforming ensemble models with our single model. On a difficult balanced pair metric, the component gives a substantial improvement in counting over a strong baseline by 6.6%.
Inspired by recent development of artificial satellite, remote sensing images have attracted extensive attention. Recently, noticeable progress has been made in scene classification and target detection.However, it is still not clear how to describe the remote sensing image content with accurate and concise sentences. In this paper, we investigate to describe the remote sensing images with accurate and flexible sentences. First, some annotated instructions are presented to better describe the remote sensing images considering the special characteristics of remote sensing images. Second, in order to exhaustively exploit the contents of remote sensing images, a large-scale aerial image data set is constructed for remote sensing image caption. Finally, a comprehensive review is presented on the proposed data set to fully advance the task of remote sensing caption. Extensive experiments on the proposed data set demonstrate that the content of the remote sensing image can be completely described by generating language descriptions. The data set is available at //github.com/2051/RSICD_optimal
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