In multivariate time series systems, key insights can be obtained by discovering lead-lag relationships inherent in the data, which refer to the dependence between two time series shifted in time relative to one another, and which can be leveraged for the purposes of control, forecasting or clustering. We develop a clustering-driven methodology for robust detection of lead-lag relationships in lagged multi-factor models. Within our framework, the envisioned pipeline takes as input a set of time series, and creates an enlarged universe of extracted subsequence time series from each input time series, via a sliding window approach. This is then followed by an application of various clustering techniques, (such as k-means++ and spectral clustering), employing a variety of pairwise similarity measures, including nonlinear ones. Once the clusters have been extracted, lead-lag estimates across clusters are robustly aggregated to enhance the identification of the consistent relationships in the original universe. We establish connections to the multireference alignment problem for both the homogeneous and heterogeneous settings. Since multivariate time series are ubiquitous in a wide range of domains, we demonstrate that our method is not only able to robustly detect lead-lag relationships in financial markets, but can also yield insightful results when applied to an environmental data set.
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The fusion of causal models with deep learning introducing increasingly intricate data sets, such as the causal associations within images or between textual components, has surfaced as a focal research area. Nonetheless, the broadening of original causal concepts and theories to such complex, non-statistical data has been met with serious challenges. In response, our study proposes redefinitions of causal data into three distinct categories from the standpoint of causal structure and representation: definite data, semi-definite data, and indefinite data. Definite data chiefly pertains to statistical data used in conventional causal scenarios, while semi-definite data refers to a spectrum of data formats germane to deep learning, including time-series, images, text, and others. Indefinite data is an emergent research sphere inferred from the progression of data forms by us. To comprehensively present these three data paradigms, we elaborate on their formal definitions, differences manifested in datasets, resolution pathways, and development of research. We summarize key tasks and achievements pertaining to definite and semi-definite data from myriad research undertakings, present a roadmap for indefinite data, beginning with its current research conundrums. Lastly, we classify and scrutinize the key datasets presently utilized within these three paradigms.
Algorithms based on regret matching, specifically regret matching$^+$ (RM$^+$), and its variants are the most popular approaches for solving large-scale two-player zero-sum games in practice. Unlike algorithms such as optimistic gradient descent ascent, which have strong last-iterate and ergodic convergence properties for zero-sum games, virtually nothing is known about the last-iterate properties of regret-matching algorithms. Given the importance of last-iterate convergence for numerical optimization reasons and relevance as modeling real-word learning in games, in this paper, we study the last-iterate convergence properties of various popular variants of RM$^+$. First, we show numerically that several practical variants such as simultaneous RM$^+$, alternating RM$^+$, and simultaneous predictive RM$^+$, all lack last-iterate convergence guarantees even on a simple $3\times 3$ game. We then prove that recent variants of these algorithms based on a smoothing technique do enjoy last-iterate convergence: we prove that extragradient RM$^{+}$ and smooth Predictive RM$^+$ enjoy asymptotic last-iterate convergence (without a rate) and $1/\sqrt{t}$ best-iterate convergence. Finally, we introduce restarted variants of these algorithms, and show that they enjoy linear-rate last-iterate convergence.
In reliable decision-making systems based on machine learning, models have to be robust to distributional shifts or provide the uncertainty of their predictions. In node-level problems of graph learning, distributional shifts can be especially complex since the samples are interdependent. To evaluate the performance of graph models, it is important to test them on diverse and meaningful distributional shifts. However, most graph benchmarks considering distributional shifts for node-level problems focus mainly on node features, while structural properties are also essential for graph problems. In this work, we propose a general approach for inducing diverse distributional shifts based on graph structure. We use this approach to create data splits according to several structural node properties: popularity, locality, and density. In our experiments, we thoroughly evaluate the proposed distributional shifts and show that they can be quite challenging for existing graph models. We also reveal that simple models often outperform more sophisticated methods on the considered structural shifts. Finally, our experiments provide evidence that there is a trade-off between the quality of learned representations for the base classification task under structural distributional shift and the ability to separate the nodes from different distributions using these representations.
A central component of rational behavior is logical inference: the process of determining which conclusions follow from a set of premises. Psychologists have documented several ways in which humans' inferences deviate from the rules of logic. Do language models, which are trained on text generated by humans, replicate these biases, or are they able to overcome them? Focusing on the case of syllogisms -- inferences from two simple premises, which have been studied extensively in psychology -- we show that larger models are more logical than smaller ones, and also more logical than humans. At the same time, even the largest models make systematic errors, some of which mirror human reasoning biases such as ordering effects and logical fallacies. Overall, we find that language models mimic the human biases included in their training data, but are able to overcome them in some cases.
Traffic object detection under variable illumination is challenging due to the information loss caused by the limited dynamic range of conventional frame-based cameras. To address this issue, we introduce bio-inspired event cameras and propose a novel Structure-aware Fusion Network (SFNet) that extracts sharp and complete object structures from the event stream to compensate for the lost information in images through cross-modality fusion, enabling the network to obtain illumination-robust representations for traffic object detection. Specifically, to mitigate the sparsity or blurriness issues arising from diverse motion states of traffic objects in fixed-interval event sampling methods, we propose the Reliable Structure Generation Network (RSGNet) to generate Speed Invariant Frames (SIF), ensuring the integrity and sharpness of object structures. Next, we design a novel Adaptive Feature Complement Module (AFCM) which guides the adaptive fusion of two modality features to compensate for the information loss in the images by perceiving the global lightness distribution of the images, thereby generating illumination-robust representations. Finally, considering the lack of large-scale and high-quality annotations in the existing event-based object detection datasets, we build a DSEC-Det dataset, which consists of 53 sequences with 63,931 images and more than 208,000 labels for 8 classes. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our proposed SFNet can overcome the perceptual boundaries of conventional cameras and outperform the frame-based method by 8.0% in mAP50 and 5.9% in mAP50:95. Our code and dataset will be available at //github.com/YN-Yang/SFNet.
Spurious correlations in the data, where multiple cues are predictive of the target labels, often lead to shortcut learning phenomena, where a model may rely on erroneous, easy-to-learn, cues while ignoring reliable ones. In this work, we propose an ensemble diversification framework exploiting the generation of synthetic counterfactuals using Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs). We discover that DPMs have the inherent capability to represent multiple visual cues independently, even when they are largely correlated in the training data. We leverage this characteristic to encourage model diversity and empirically show the efficacy of the approach with respect to several diversification objectives. We show that diffusion-guided diversification can lead models to avert attention from shortcut cues, achieving ensemble diversity performance comparable to previous methods requiring additional data collection.
We study the data complexity of consistent query answering (CQA) on databases that may violate the primary key constraints. A repair is a maximal subset of the database satisfying the primary key constraints. For a Boolean query q, the problem CERTAINTY(q) takes a database as input, and asks whether or not each repair satisfies q. The computational complexity of CERTAINTY(q) has been established whenever q is a self-join-free Boolean conjunctive query, or a (not necessarily self-join-free) Boolean path query. In this paper, we take one more step towards a general classification for all Boolean conjunctive queries by considering the class of rooted tree queries. In particular, we show that for every rooted tree query q, CERTAINTY(q) is in FO, NL-hard $\cap$ LFP, or coNP-complete, and it is decidable (in polynomial time), given q, which of the three cases applies. We also extend our classification to larger classes of queries with simple primary keys. Our classification criteria rely on query homomorphisms and our polynomial-time fixpoint algorithm is based on a novel use of context-free grammar (CFG).
Existing recommender systems extract the user preference based on learning the correlation in data, such as behavioral correlation in collaborative filtering, feature-feature, or feature-behavior correlation in click-through rate prediction. However, regretfully, the real world is driven by causality rather than correlation, and correlation does not imply causation. For example, the recommender systems can recommend a battery charger to a user after buying a phone, in which the latter can serve as the cause of the former, and such a causal relation cannot be reversed. Recently, to address it, researchers in recommender systems have begun to utilize causal inference to extract causality, enhancing the recommender system. In this survey, we comprehensively review the literature on causal inference-based recommendation. At first, we present the fundamental concepts of both recommendation and causal inference as the basis of later content. We raise the typical issues that the non-causality recommendation is faced. Afterward, we comprehensively review the existing work of causal inference-based recommendation, based on a taxonomy of what kind of problem causal inference addresses. Last, we discuss the open problems in this important research area, along with interesting future works.
With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.
Object detection typically assumes that training and test data are drawn from an identical distribution, which, however, does not always hold in practice. Such a distribution mismatch will lead to a significant performance drop. In this work, we aim to improve the cross-domain robustness of object detection. We tackle the domain shift on two levels: 1) the image-level shift, such as image style, illumination, etc, and 2) the instance-level shift, such as object appearance, size, etc. We build our approach based on the recent state-of-the-art Faster R-CNN model, and design two domain adaptation components, on image level and instance level, to reduce the domain discrepancy. The two domain adaptation components are based on H-divergence theory, and are implemented by learning a domain classifier in adversarial training manner. The domain classifiers on different levels are further reinforced with a consistency regularization to learn a domain-invariant region proposal network (RPN) in the Faster R-CNN model. We evaluate our newly proposed approach using multiple datasets including Cityscapes, KITTI, SIM10K, etc. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach for robust object detection in various domain shift scenarios.
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