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Causal discovery from observational data is a rather challenging, often impossible, task. However, an estimation of the causal structure is possible under certain assumptions on the data-generation process. Numerous commonly used methods rely on the additivity of noise in the structural equation models. Additivity implies that the variance or the tail of the effect, given the causes, is invariant; thus, the cause only affects the mean. However, the tail or other characteristics of the random variable can provide different information regarding the causal structure. Such cases have received very little attention in the literature thus far. Previous studies have revealed that the causal graph is identifiable under different models, such as linear non-Gaussian, post-nonlinear, or quadratic variance functional models. In this study, we introduce a new class of models called the conditional parametric causal models (CPCM), where the cause affects different characteristics of the effect. We use sufficient statistics to reveal the identifiability of the CPCM models in the exponential family of conditional distributions. Moreover, we propose an algorithm for estimating the causal structure from a random sample from the CPCM. The empirical properties of the methodology are studied for various datasets, including an application on the expenditure behavior of residents of the Philippines.

In this paper we give the first efficient algorithms for the $k$-center problem on dynamic graphs undergoing edge updates. In this problem, the goal is to partition the input into $k$ sets by choosing $k$ centers such that the maximum distance from any data point to the closest center is minimized. It is known that it is NP-hard to get a better than $2$ approximation for this problem. While in many applications the input may naturally be modeled as a graph, all prior works on $k$-center problem in dynamic settings are on metrics. In this paper, we give a deterministic decremental $(2+\epsilon)$-approximation algorithm and a randomized incremental $(4+\epsilon)$-approximation algorithm, both with amortized update time $kn^{o(1)}$ for weighted graphs. Moreover, we show a reduction that leads to a fully dynamic $(2+\epsilon)$-approximation algorithm for the $k$-center problem, with worst-case update time that is within a factor $k$ of the state-of-the-art upper bound for maintaining $(1+\epsilon)$-approximate single-source distances in graphs. Matching this bound is a natural goalpost because the approximate distances of each vertex to its center can be used to maintain a $(2+\epsilon)$-approximation of the graph diameter and the fastest known algorithms for such a diameter approximation also rely on maintaining approximate single-source distances.

In this manuscript we derive the optimal out-of-sample causal predictor for a linear system that has been observed in $k+1$ within-sample environments. In this model we consider $k$ shifted environments and one observational environment. Each environment corresponds to a linear structural equation model (SEM) with its own shift and noise vector, both in $L^2$. The strength of the shifts can be put in a certain order, and we may therefore speak of all shifts that are less or equally strong than a given shift. We consider the space of all shifts are $\gamma$ times less or equally strong than any weighted average of the observed shift vectors with weights on the unit sphere. For each $\beta\in\mathbb{R}^p$ we show that the supremum of the risk functions $R_{\tilde{A}}(\beta)$ over $\tilde{A}\in C^\gamma$ has a worst-risk decomposition into a (positive) linear combination of risk functions, depending on $\gamma$. We then define the causal regularizer, $\beta_\gamma$, as the argument $\beta$ that minimizes this risk. The main result of the paper is that this regularizer can be consistently estimated with a plug-in estimator outside a set of zero Lebesgue measure in the parameter space. A practical obstacle for such estimation is that it involves the solution of a general degree polynomial which cannot be done explicitly. Therefore we also prove that an approximate plug-in estimator using the bisection method is also consistent. An interesting by-product of the proof of the main result is that the plug-in estimation of the argmin of the maxima of a finite set of quadratic risk functions is consistent outside a set of zero Lebesgue measure in the parameter space.

We provide a unified operational framework for the study of causality, non-locality and contextuality, in a fully device-independent and theory-independent setting. Our work has its roots in the sheaf-theoretic framework for contextuality by Abramsky and Brandenburger, which it extends to include arbitrary causal orders (be they definite, dynamical or indefinite). We define a notion of causal function for arbitrary spaces of input histories, and we show that the explicit imposition of causal constraints on joint outputs is equivalent to the free assignment of local outputs to the tip events of input histories. We prove factorisation results for causal functions over parallel, sequential, and conditional sequential compositions of the underlying spaces. We prove that causality is equivalent to continuity with respect to the lowerset topology on the underlying spaces, and we show that partial causal functions defined on open sub-spaces can be bundled into a presheaf. In a striking departure from the Abramsky-Brandenburger setting, however, we show that causal functions fail, under certain circumstances, to form a sheaf. We define empirical models as compatible families in the presheaf of probability distributions on causal functions, for arbitrary open covers of the underlying space of input histories. We show the existence of causally-induced contextuality, a phenomenon arising when the causal constraints themselves become context-dependent, and we prove a no-go result for non-locality on total orders, both static and dynamical.

We investigate the fixed-budget best-arm identification (BAI) problem for linear bandits in a potentially non-stationary environment. Given a finite arm set $\mathcal{X}\subset\mathbb{R}^d$, a fixed budget $T$, and an unpredictable sequence of parameters $\left\lbrace\theta_t\right\rbrace_{t=1}^{T}$, an algorithm will aim to correctly identify the best arm $x^* := \arg\max_{x\in\mathcal{X}}x^\top\sum_{t=1}^{T}\theta_t$ with probability as high as possible. Prior work has addressed the stationary setting where $\theta_t = \theta_1$ for all $t$ and demonstrated that the error probability decreases as $\exp(-T /\rho^*)$ for a problem-dependent constant $\rho^*$. But in many real-world $A/B/n$ multivariate testing scenarios that motivate our work, the environment is non-stationary and an algorithm expecting a stationary setting can easily fail. For robust identification, it is well-known that if arms are chosen randomly and non-adaptively from a G-optimal design over $\mathcal{X}$ at each time then the error probability decreases as $\exp(-T\Delta^2_{(1)}/d)$, where $\Delta_{(1)} = \min_{x \neq x^*} (x^* - x)^\top \frac{1}{T}\sum_{t=1}^T \theta_t$. As there exist environments where $\Delta_{(1)}^2/ d \ll 1/ \rho^*$, we are motivated to propose a novel algorithm $\mathsf{P1}$-$\mathsf{RAGE}$ that aims to obtain the best of both worlds: robustness to non-stationarity and fast rates of identification in benign settings. We characterize the error probability of $\mathsf{P1}$-$\mathsf{RAGE}$ and demonstrate empirically that the algorithm indeed never performs worse than G-optimal design but compares favorably to the best algorithms in the stationary setting.

Existing causal models for link prediction assume an underlying set of inherent node factors -- an innate characteristic defined at the node's birth -- that governs the causal evolution of links in the graph. In some causal tasks, however, link formation is path-dependent: The outcome of link interventions depends on existing links. Unfortunately, these existing causal methods are not designed for path-dependent link formation, as the cascading functional dependencies between links (arising from path dependence) are either unidentifiable or require an impractical number of control variables. To overcome this, we develop the first causal model capable of dealing with path dependencies in link prediction. In this work we introduce the concept of causal lifting, an invariance in causal models of independent interest that, on graphs, allows the identification of causal link prediction queries using limited interventional data. Further, we show how structural pairwise embeddings exhibit lower bias and correctly represent the task's causal structure, as opposed to existing node embeddings, e.g., graph neural network node embeddings and matrix factorization. Finally, we validate our theoretical findings on three scenarios for causal link prediction tasks: knowledge base completion, covariance matrix estimation and consumer-product recommendations.

Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest.

We consider the problem of discovering $K$ related Gaussian directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where the involved graph structures share a consistent causal order and sparse unions of supports. Under the multi-task learning setting, we propose a $l_1/l_2$-regularized maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for learning $K$ linear structural equation models. We theoretically show that the joint estimator, by leveraging data across related tasks, can achieve a better sample complexity for recovering the causal order (or topological order) than separate estimations. Moreover, the joint estimator is able to recover non-identifiable DAGs, by estimating them together with some identifiable DAGs. Lastly, our analysis also shows the consistency of union support recovery of the structures. To allow practical implementation, we design a continuous optimization problem whose optimizer is the same as the joint estimator and can be approximated efficiently by an iterative algorithm. We validate the theoretical analysis and the effectiveness of the joint estimator in experiments.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), which generalize deep neural networks to graph-structured data, have drawn considerable attention and achieved state-of-the-art performance in numerous graph related tasks. However, existing GNN models mainly focus on designing graph convolution operations. The graph pooling (or downsampling) operations, that play an important role in learning hierarchical representations, are usually overlooked. In this paper, we propose a novel graph pooling operator, called Hierarchical Graph Pooling with Structure Learning (HGP-SL), which can be integrated into various graph neural network architectures. HGP-SL incorporates graph pooling and structure learning into a unified module to generate hierarchical representations of graphs. More specifically, the graph pooling operation adaptively selects a subset of nodes to form an induced subgraph for the subsequent layers. To preserve the integrity of graph's topological information, we further introduce a structure learning mechanism to learn a refined graph structure for the pooled graph at each layer. By combining HGP-SL operator with graph neural networks, we perform graph level representation learning with focus on graph classification task. Experimental results on six widely used benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model.