One of the central quantities of probabilistic seismic risk assessment studies is the fragility curve, which represents the probability of failure of a mechanical structure conditional on a scalar measure derived from the seismic ground motion. Estimating such curves is a difficult task because, for many structures of interest, few data are available and the data are only binary; i.e., they indicate the state of the structure, failure or non-failure. This framework concerns complex equipments such as electrical devices encountered in industrial installations. In order to address this challenging framework a wide range of the methods in the literature rely on a parametric log-normal model. Bayesian approaches allow for efficient learning of the model parameters. However, the choice of the prior distribution has a non-negligible influence on the posterior distribution and, therefore, on any resulting estimate. We propose a thorough study of this parametric Bayesian estimation problem when the data are limited and binary. Using the reference prior theory as a support, we suggest an objective approach for the prior choice. This approach leads to the Jeffreys prior which is explicitly derived for this problem for the first time. The posterior distribution is proven to be proper (i.e., it integrates to unity) with the Jeffreys prior and improper with some classical priors from the literature. The posterior distribution with the Jeffreys prior is also shown to vanish at the boundaries of the parameters domain, so sampling the posterior distribution of the parameters does not produce anomalously small or large values. Therefore, this does not produce degenerate fragility curves such as unit-step functions and the Jeffreys prior leads to robust credibility intervals. The numerical results obtained on two different case studies, including an industrial case, illustrate the theoretical predictions.
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A preconditioning strategy is proposed for the iterative solve of large numbers of linear systems with variable matrix and right-hand side which arise during the computation of solution statistics of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations with random variable coefficients sampled by Monte Carlo. Building on the assumption that a truncated Karhunen-Lo\`{e}ve expansion of a known transform of the random variable coefficient is known, we introduce a compact representation of the random coefficient in the form of a Voronoi quantizer. The number of Voronoi cells, each of which is represented by a centroidal variable coefficient, is set to the prescribed number $P$ of preconditioners. Upon sampling the random variable coefficient, the linear system assembled with a given realization of the coefficient is solved with the preconditioner whose centroidal variable coefficient is the closest to the realization. We consider different ways to define and obtain the centroidal variable coefficients, and we investigate the properties of the induced preconditioning strategies in terms of average number of solver iterations for sequential simulations, and of load balancing for parallel simulations. Another approach, which is based on deterministic grids on the system of stochastic coordinates of the truncated representation of the random variable coefficient, is proposed with a stochastic dimension which increases with the number $P$ of preconditioners. This approach allows to bypass the need for preliminary computations in order to determine the optimal stochastic dimension of the truncated approximation of the random variable coefficient for a given number of preconditioners.
We consider a statistical model for symmetric matrix factorization with additive Gaussian noise in the high-dimensional regime where the rank $M$ of the signal matrix to infer scales with its size $N$ as $M = o(N^{1/10})$. Allowing for a $N$-dependent rank offers new challenges and requires new methods. Working in the Bayesian-optimal setting, we show that whenever the signal has i.i.d. entries the limiting mutual information between signal and data is given by a variational formula involving a rank-one replica symmetric potential. In other words, from the information-theoretic perspective, the case of a (slowly) growing rank is the same as when $M = 1$ (namely, the standard spiked Wigner model). The proof is primarily based on a novel multiscale cavity method allowing for growing rank along with some information-theoretic identities on worst noise for the Gaussian vector channel. We believe that the cavity method developed here will play a role in the analysis of a broader class of inference and spin models where the degrees of freedom are large arrays instead of vectors.
For factor analysis, many estimators, starting with the maximum likelihood estimator, are developed, and the statistical properties of most estimators are well discussed. In the early 2000s, a new estimator based on matrix factorization, called Matrix Decomposition Factor Analysis (MDFA), was developed. Although the estimator is obtained by minimizing the principal component analysis-like loss function, this estimator empirically behaves like other consistent estimators of factor analysis, not principal component analysis. Since the MDFA estimator cannot be formulated as a classical M-estimator, the statistical properties of the MDFA estimator have not yet been discussed. To explain this unexpected behavior theoretically, we establish the consistency of the MDFA estimator as the factor analysis. That is, we show that the MDFA estimator has the same limit as other consistent estimators of factor analysis.
First-order methods are often analyzed via their continuous-time models, where their worst-case convergence properties are usually approached via Lyapunov functions. In this work, we provide a systematic and principled approach to find and verify Lyapunov functions for classes of ordinary and stochastic differential equations. More precisely, we extend the performance estimation framework, originally proposed by Drori and Teboulle [10], to continuous-time models. We retrieve convergence results comparable to those of discrete methods using fewer assumptions and convexity inequalities, and provide new results for stochastic accelerated gradient flows.
In the present study, the efficiency of preconditioners for solving linear systems associated with the discretized variable-density incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with semiimplicit second-order accuracy in time and spectral accuracy in space is investigated. The method, in which the inverse operator for the constant-density flow system acts as preconditioner, is implemented for three iterative solvers: the General Minimal Residual, the Conjugate Gradient and the Richardson Minimal Residual. We discuss the method, first, in the context of the one-dimensional flow case where a top-hat like profile for the density is used. Numerical evidence shows that the convergence is significantly improved due to the notable decrease in the condition number of the operators. Most importantly, we then validate the robustness and convergence properties of the method on two more realistic problems: the two-dimensional Rayleigh-Taylor instability problem and the three-dimensional variable-density swirling jet.
The purpose of anonymizing structured data is to protect the privacy of individuals in the data while retaining the statistical properties of the data. There is a large body of work that examines anonymization vulnerabilities. Focusing on strong anonymization mechanisms, this paper examines a number of prominent attack papers and finds several problems, all of which lead to overstating risk. First, some papers fail to establish a correct statistical inference baseline (or any at all), leading to incorrect measures. Notably, the reconstruction attack from the US Census Bureau that led to a redesign of its disclosure method made this mistake. We propose the non-member framework, an improved method for how to compute a more accurate inference baseline, and give examples of its operation. Second, some papers don't use a realistic membership base rate, leading to incorrect precision measures if precision is reported. Third, some papers unnecessarily report measures in such a way that it is difficult or impossible to assess risk. Virtually the entire literature on membership inference attacks, dozens of papers, make one or both of these errors. We propose that membership inference papers report precision/recall values using a representative range of base rates.
Optimal estimation and inference for both the minimizer and minimum of a convex regression function under the white noise and nonparametric regression models are studied in a nonasymptotic local minimax framework, where the performance of a procedure is evaluated at individual functions. Fully adaptive and computationally efficient algorithms are proposed and sharp minimax lower bounds are given for both the estimation accuracy and expected length of confidence intervals for the minimizer and minimum. The nonasymptotic local minimax framework brings out new phenomena in simultaneous estimation and inference for the minimizer and minimum. We establish a novel uncertainty principle that provides a fundamental limit on how well the minimizer and minimum can be estimated simultaneously for any convex regression function. A similar result holds for the expected length of the confidence intervals for the minimizer and minimum.
This article is concerned with the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for approximating expectations of some functions of the solution to the Heston 3/2-model from mathematical finance, which takes values in $(0, \infty)$ and possesses superlinearly growing drift and diffusion coefficients. To discretize the SDE model, a new Milstein-type scheme is proposed to produce independent sample paths. The proposed scheme can be explicitly solved and is positivity-preserving unconditionally, i.e., for any time step-size $h>0$. This positivity-preserving property for large discretization time steps is particularly desirable in the MLMC setting. Furthermore, a mean-square convergence rate of order one is proved in the non-globally Lipschitz regime, which is not trivial, as the diffusion coefficient grows super-linearly. The obtained order-one convergence in turn promises the desired relevant variance of the multilevel estimator and justifies the optimal complexity $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-2})$ for the MLMC approach, where $\epsilon > 0$ is the required target accuracy. Numerical experiments are finally reported to confirm the theoretical findings.
Mendelian randomization is an instrumental variable method that utilizes genetic information to investigate the causal effect of a modifiable exposure on an outcome. In most cases, the exposure changes over time. Understanding the time-varying causal effect of the exposure can yield detailed insights into mechanistic effects and the potential impact of public health interventions. Recently, a growing number of Mendelian randomization studies have attempted to explore time-varying causal effects. However, the proposed approaches oversimplify temporal information and rely on overly restrictive structural assumptions, limiting their reliability in addressing time-varying causal problems. This paper considers a novel approach to estimate time-varying effects through continuous-time modelling by combining functional principal component analysis and weak-instrument-robust techniques. Our method effectively utilizes available data without making strong structural assumptions and can be applied in general settings where the exposure measurements occur at different timepoints for different individuals. We demonstrate through simulations that our proposed method performs well in estimating time-varying effects and provides reliable inference results when the time-varying effect form is correctly specified. The method could theoretically be used to estimate arbitrarily complex time-varying effects. However, there is a trade-off between model complexity and instrument strength. Estimating complex time-varying effects requires instruments that are unrealistically strong. We illustrate the application of this method in a case study examining the time-varying effects of systolic blood pressure on urea levels.
Sparse regression and classification estimators that respect group structures have application to an assortment of statistical and machine learning problems, from multitask learning to sparse additive modeling to hierarchical selection. This work introduces structured sparse estimators that combine group subset selection with shrinkage. To accommodate sophisticated structures, our estimators allow for arbitrary overlap between groups. We develop an optimization framework for fitting the nonconvex regularization surface and present finite-sample error bounds for estimation of the regression function. As an application requiring structure, we study sparse semiparametric additive modeling, a procedure that allows the effect of each predictor to be zero, linear, or nonlinear. For this task, the new estimators improve across several metrics on synthetic data compared to alternatives. Finally, we demonstrate their efficacy in modeling supermarket foot traffic and economic recessions using many predictors. These demonstrations suggest sparse semiparametric additive models, fit using the new estimators, are an excellent compromise between fully linear and fully nonparametric alternatives. All of our algorithms are made available in the scalable implementation grpsel.
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