Confidence calibration is of great importance to the reliability of decisions made by machine learning systems. However, discriminative classifiers based on deep neural networks are often criticized for producing overconfident predictions that fail to reflect the true correctness likelihood of classification accuracy. We argue that such an inability to model uncertainty is mainly caused by the closed-world nature in softmax: a model trained by the cross-entropy loss will be forced to classify input into one of $K$ pre-defined categories with high probability. To address this problem, we for the first time propose a novel $K$+1-way softmax formulation, which incorporates the modeling of open-world uncertainty as the extra dimension. To unify the learning of the original $K$-way classification task and the extra dimension that models uncertainty, we propose a novel energy-based objective function, and moreover, theoretically prove that optimizing such an objective essentially forces the extra dimension to capture the marginal data distribution. Extensive experiments show that our approach, Energy-based Open-World Softmax (EOW-Softmax), is superior to existing state-of-the-art methods in improving confidence calibration.
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While modern deep neural networks are performant perception modules, performance (accuracy) alone is insufficient, particularly for safety-critical robotic applications such as self-driving vehicles. Robot autonomy stacks also require these otherwise blackbox models to produce reliable and calibrated measures of confidence on their predictions. Existing approaches estimate uncertainty from these neural network perception stacks by modifying network architectures, inference procedure, or loss functions. However, in general, these methods lack calibration, meaning that the predictive uncertainties do not faithfully represent the true underlying uncertainties (process noise). Our key insight is that calibration is only achieved by imposing constraints across multiple examples, such as those in a mini-batch; as opposed to existing approaches which only impose constraints per-sample, often leading to overconfident (thus miscalibrated) uncertainty estimates. By enforcing the distribution of outputs of a neural network to resemble a target distribution by minimizing an $f$-divergence, we obtain significantly better-calibrated models compared to prior approaches. Our approach, $f$-Cal, outperforms existing uncertainty calibration approaches on robot perception tasks such as object detection and monocular depth estimation over multiple real-world benchmarks.
Shape optimization is at the heart of many industrial applications, such as aerodynamics, heat transfer, and structural analysis. It has recently been shown that Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) can predict the performance of a shape quickly and accurately and be used to optimize more effectively than traditional techniques that rely on response-surfaces obtained by Kriging. However, GNNs suffer from the fact that they do not evaluate their own accuracy, which is something Bayesian Optimization methods require. Therefore, estimating confidence in generated predictions is necessary to go beyond straight deterministic optimization, which is less effective. In this paper, we demonstrate that we can use Ensembles-based technique to overcome this limitation and outperform the state-of-the-art. Our experiments on diverse aerodynamics and structural analysis tasks prove that adding uncertainty to shape optimization significantly improves the quality of resulting shapes and reduces the time required for the optimization.
This paper presents a new optimization approach to causal estimation. Given data that contains covariates and an outcome, which covariates are causes of the outcome, and what is the strength of the causality? In classical machine learning (ML), the goal of optimization is to maximize predictive accuracy. However, some covariates might exhibit a non-causal association to the outcome. Such spurious associations provide predictive power for classical ML, but they prevent us from causally interpreting the result. This paper proposes CoCo, an optimization algorithm that bridges the gap between pure prediction and causal inference. CoCo leverages the recently-proposed idea of environments, datasets of covariates/response where the causal relationships remain invariant but where the distribution of the covariates changes from environment to environment. Given datasets from multiple environments -- and ones that exhibit sufficient heterogeneity -- CoCo maximizes an objective for which the only solution is the causal solution. We describe the theoretical foundations of this approach and demonstrate its effectiveness on simulated and real datasets. Compared to classical ML and existing methods, CoCo provides more accurate estimates of the causal model.
Algorithmic fairness has aroused considerable interests in data mining and machine learning communities recently. So far the existing research has been mostly focusing on the development of quantitative metrics to measure algorithm disparities across different protected groups, and approaches for adjusting the algorithm output to reduce such disparities. In this paper, we propose to study the problem of identification of the source of model disparities. Unlike existing interpretation methods which typically learn feature importance, we consider the causal relationships among feature variables and propose a novel framework to decompose the disparity into the sum of contributions from fairness-aware causal paths, which are paths linking the sensitive attribute and the final predictions, on the graph. We also consider the scenario when the directions on certain edges within those paths cannot be determined. Our framework is also model agnostic and applicable to a variety of quantitative disparity measures. Empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world data sets are provided to show that our method can provide precise and comprehensive explanations to the model disparities.
Invariant approaches have been remarkably successful in tackling the problem of domain generalization, where the objective is to perform inference on data distributions different from those used in training. In our work, we investigate whether it is possible to leverage domain information from the unseen test samples themselves. We propose a domain-adaptive approach consisting of two steps: a) we first learn a discriminative domain embedding from unsupervised training examples, and b) use this domain embedding as supplementary information to build a domain-adaptive model, that takes both the input as well as its domain into account while making predictions. For unseen domains, our method simply uses few unlabelled test examples to construct the domain embedding. This enables adaptive classification on any unseen domain. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on various domain generalization benchmarks. In addition, we introduce the first real-world, large-scale domain generalization benchmark, Geo-YFCC, containing 1.1M samples over 40 training, 7 validation, and 15 test domains, orders of magnitude larger than prior work. We show that the existing approaches either do not scale to this dataset or underperform compared to the simple baseline of training a model on the union of data from all training domains. In contrast, our approach achieves a significant improvement.
Building explainable systems is a critical problem in the field of Natural Language Processing (NLP), since most machine learning models provide no explanations for the predictions. Existing approaches for explainable machine learning systems tend to focus on interpreting the outputs or the connections between inputs and outputs. However, the fine-grained information is often ignored, and the systems do not explicitly generate the human-readable explanations. To better alleviate this problem, we propose a novel generative explanation framework that learns to make classification decisions and generate fine-grained explanations at the same time. More specifically, we introduce the explainable factor and the minimum risk training approach that learn to generate more reasonable explanations. We construct two new datasets that contain summaries, rating scores, and fine-grained reasons. We conduct experiments on both datasets, comparing with several strong neural network baseline systems. Experimental results show that our method surpasses all baselines on both datasets, and is able to generate concise explanations at the same time.
Embedding models for deterministic Knowledge Graphs (KG) have been extensively studied, with the purpose of capturing latent semantic relations between entities and incorporating the structured knowledge into machine learning. However, there are many KGs that model uncertain knowledge, which typically model the inherent uncertainty of relations facts with a confidence score, and embedding such uncertain knowledge represents an unresolved challenge. The capturing of uncertain knowledge will benefit many knowledge-driven applications such as question answering and semantic search by providing more natural characterization of the knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel uncertain KG embedding model UKGE, which aims to preserve both structural and uncertainty information of relation facts in the embedding space. Unlike previous models that characterize relation facts with binary classification techniques, UKGE learns embeddings according to the confidence scores of uncertain relation facts. To further enhance the precision of UKGE, we also introduce probabilistic soft logic to infer confidence scores for unseen relation facts during training. We propose and evaluate two variants of UKGE based on different learning objectives. Experiments are conducted on three real-world uncertain KGs via three tasks, i.e. confidence prediction, relation fact ranking, and relation fact classification. UKGE shows effectiveness in capturing uncertain knowledge by achieving promising results on these tasks, and consistently outperforms baselines on these tasks.
There is a rising interest in studying the robustness of deep neural network classifiers against adversaries, with both advanced attack and defence techniques being actively developed. However, most recent work focuses on discriminative classifiers, which only model the conditional distribution of the labels given the inputs. In this paper we propose the deep Bayes classifier, which improves classical naive Bayes with conditional deep generative models. We further develop detection methods for adversarial examples, which reject inputs that have negative log-likelihood under the generative model exceeding a threshold pre-specified using training data. Experimental results suggest that deep Bayes classifiers are more robust than deep discriminative classifiers, and the proposed detection methods achieve high detection rates against many recently proposed attacks.
The key issue of few-shot learning is learning to generalize. In this paper, we propose a large margin principle to improve the generalization capacity of metric based methods for few-shot learning. To realize it, we develop a unified framework to learn a more discriminative metric space by augmenting the softmax classification loss function with a large margin distance loss function for training. Extensive experiments on two state-of-the-art few-shot learning models, graph neural networks and prototypical networks, show that our method can improve the performance of existing models substantially with very little computational overhead, demonstrating the effectiveness of the large margin principle and the potential of our method.
Machine translation is a popular test bed for research in neural sequence-to-sequence models but despite much recent research, there is still a lack of understanding of these models. Practitioners report performance degradation with large beams, the under-estimation of rare words and a lack of diversity in the final translations. Our study relates some of these issues to the inherent uncertainty of the task, due to the existence of multiple valid translations for a single source sentence, and to the extrinsic uncertainty caused by noisy training data. We propose tools and metrics to assess how uncertainty in the data is captured by the model distribution and how it affects search strategies that generate translations. Our results show that search works remarkably well but that the models tend to spread too much probability mass over the hypothesis space. Next, we propose tools to assess model calibration and show how to easily fix some shortcomings of current models. We release both code and multiple human reference translations for two popular benchmarks.
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