In recent years, there has been substantive empirical evidence that stochastic volatility is rough. In other words, the local behavior of stochastic volatility is much more irregular than semimartingales and resembles that of a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H<0.5$. In this paper, we derive a consistent and asymptotically mixed normal estimator of $H$ based on high-frequency price observations. In contrast to previous works, we work in a semiparametric setting and do not assume any a priori relationship between volatility estimators and true volatility. Furthermore, our estimator attains a rate of convergence that is known to be optimal in a minimax sense in parametric rough volatility models.
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Semantic similarity between natural language texts is typically measured either by looking at the overlap between subsequences (e.g., BLEU) or by using embeddings (e.g., BERTScore, S-BERT). Within this paper, we argue that when we are only interested in measuring the semantic similarity, it is better to directly predict the similarity using a fine-tuned model for such a task. Using a fine-tuned model for the STS-B from the GLUE benchmark, we define the STSScore approach and show that the resulting similarity is better aligned with our expectations on a robust semantic similarity measure than other approaches.
Natural revision seems so natural: it changes beliefs as little as possible to incorporate new information. Yet, some counterexamples show it wrong. It is so conservative that it never fully believes. It only believes in the current conditions. This is right in some cases and wrong in others. Which is which? The answer requires extending natural revision from simple formulae expressing universal truths (something holds) to conditionals expressing conditional truth (something holds in certain conditions). The extension is based on the basic principles natural revision follows, identified as minimal change, indifference and naivety: change beliefs as little as possible; equate the likeliness of scenarios by default; believe all until contradicted. The extension says that natural revision restricts changes to the current conditions. A comparison with an unrestricting revision shows what exactly the current conditions are. It is not what currently considered true if it contradicts the new information. It includes something more and more unlikely until the new information is at least possible.
In this paper, we prove a Logarithmic Conjugation Theorem on finitely-connected tori. The theorem states that a harmonic function can be written as the real part of a function whose derivative is analytic and a finite sum of terms involving the logarithm of the modulus of a modified Weierstrass sigma function. We implement the method using arbitrary precision and use the result to find approximate solutions to the Laplace problem and Steklov eigenvalue problem. Using a posteriori estimation, we show that the solution of the Laplace problem on a torus with a few circular holes has error less than $10^{-100}$ using a few hundred degrees of freedom and the Steklov eigenvalues have similar error.
A rigidity circuit (in 2D) is a minimal dependent set in the rigidity matroid, i.e. a minimal graph supporting a non-trivial stress in any generic placement of its vertices in $\mathbb R^2$. Any rigidity circuit on $n\geq 5$ vertices can be obtained from rigidity circuits on a fewer number of vertices by applying the combinatorial resultant (CR) operation. The inverse operation is called a combinatorial resultant decomposition (CR-decomp). Any rigidity circuit on $n\geq 5$ vertices can be successively decomposed into smaller circuits, until the complete graphs $K_4$ are reached. This sequence of CR-decomps has the structure of a rooted binary tree called the combinatorial resultant tree (CR-tree). A CR-tree encodes an elimination strategy for computing circuit polynomials via Sylvester resultants. Different CR-trees lead to elimination strategies that can vary greatly in time and memory consumption. It is an open problem to establish criteria for optimal CR-trees, or at least to characterize those CR-trees that lead to good elimination strategies. In [12] we presented an algorithm for enumerating CR-trees where we give the algorithms for decomposing 3-connected rigidity circuits in polynomial time. In this paper we focus on those circuits that are not 3-connected, which we simply call 2-connected. In order to enumerate CR-decomps of 2-connected circuits $G$, a brute force exp-time search has to be performed among the subgraphs induced by the subsets of $V(G)$. This exp-time bottleneck is not present in the 3-connected case. In this paper we will argue that we do not have to account for all possible CR-decomps of 2-connected rigidity circuits to find a good elimination strategy; we only have to account for those CR-decomps that are a 2-split, all of which can be enumerated in polynomial time. We present algorithms and computational evidence in support of this heuristic.
In this manuscript we study properties of multidimensional shifts. More precisely, we study the necessary and sufficient conditions for a shift to be sofic, i.e. the boundary between sofic shifts and effective ones. To this end, we use different versions of algorithmic complexity (a.k.a. Kolmogorov complexity). In the first part of the work we suggest new necessary conditions of soficness for multidimensional shift. These conditions are expressed in terms of Kolmogorov complexity with bounded ressources. We discuss several applications of this technique. In particular, we construct an example of a two-dimensional effective and non sofic shift that has a very low combinatorial complexity : the number of global admissible N x N patterns grows only polynomially in N. We also show that the technique developed by S.Kass and K.Madden is equivalent to a special case of our method. In the second part, we discuss properties of subshifts defined in terms of density of letters. More specifically, we study two-dimensional subshifts $S(\rho)$ in the binary alphabet (white and black cells) where a configuration is admissible if every pattern of size N x N contains at most $N^\rho$ black cells. We show that $S(^\rho)$ is sofic for every $\rho<1$. Moreover, all effectif subshifts of these shifts are also sofic. The proof of this result is principally based on the construction of a self-simulating point-fixed tile set, with several new ingredients: an ad hoc model of computation based on a non deterministic cellular automaton (which allows to implement efficiently massively parallel calculations) and some properties of flows in a specific type of planar graphs.
We consider a one-dimensional singularly perturbed 4th order problem with the additional feature of a shift term. An expansion into a smooth term, boundary layers and an inner layer yields a formal solution decomposition, and together with a stability result we have estimates for the subsequent numerical analysis. With classical layer adapted meshes we present a numerical method, that achieves supercloseness and optimal convergence orders in the associated energy norm. We also consider coarser meshes in view of the weak layers. Some numerical examples conclude the paper and support the theory.
In the last ongoing years, there has been a significant ascending on the field of Natural Language Processing (NLP) for performing multiple tasks including English Language Teaching (ELT). An effective strategy to favor the learning process uses interactive devices to engage learners in their self-learning process. In this work, we present a working prototype of a humanoid robotic system to assist English language self-learners through text generation using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Networks. The learners interact with the system using a Graphic User Interface that generates text according to the English level of the user. The experimentation was conducted using English learners and the results were measured accordingly to International English Language Testing System (IELTS) rubric. Preliminary results show an increment in the Grammatical Range of learners who interacted with the system.
We propose an approach to compute inner and outer-approximations of the sets of values satisfying constraints expressed as arbitrarily quantified formulas. Such formulas arise for instance when specifying important problems in control such as robustness, motion planning or controllers comparison. We propose an interval-based method which allows for tractable but tight approximations. We demonstrate its applicability through a series of examples and benchmarks using a prototype implementation.
The goal of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to generate human-interpretable explanations, but there are no computationally precise theories of how humans interpret AI generated explanations. The lack of theory means that validation of XAI must be done empirically, on a case-by-case basis, which prevents systematic theory-building in XAI. We propose a psychological theory of how humans draw conclusions from saliency maps, the most common form of XAI explanation, which for the first time allows for precise prediction of explainee inference conditioned on explanation. Our theory posits that absent explanation humans expect the AI to make similar decisions to themselves, and that they interpret an explanation by comparison to the explanations they themselves would give. Comparison is formalized via Shepard's universal law of generalization in a similarity space, a classic theory from cognitive science. A pre-registered user study on AI image classifications with saliency map explanations demonstrate that our theory quantitatively matches participants' predictions of the AI.
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.
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