In causal inference, the joint law of a set of counterfactual random variables is generally not identified. We show that a conservative version of the joint law - corresponding to the smallest treatment effect - is identified. Finding this law uses recent results from optimal transport theory. Under this conservative law we can bound causal effects and we may construct inferences for each individual's counterfactual dose-response curve. Intuitively, this is the flattest counterfactual curve for each subject that is consistent with the distribution of the observables. If the outcome is univariate then, under mild conditions, this curve is simply the quantile function of the counterfactual distribution that passes through the observed point. This curve corresponds to a nonparametric rank preserving structural model.
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The increased connectivity and potential insider threats make traditional network defense vulnerable. Instead of assuming that everything behind the security perimeter is safe, the zero-trust security model verifies every incoming request before granting access. This chapter draws attention to the cyber resilience within the zero-trust model. We introduce the evolution from traditional perimeter-based security to zero trust and discuss their difference. Two key elements of the zero-trust engine are trust evaluation (TE) and policy engine (PE). We introduce the design of the two components and discuss how their interplay would contribute to cyber resilience. Dynamic game theory and learning are applied as quantitative approaches to achieve automated zero-trust cyber resilience. Several case studies and implementations are introduced to illustrate the benefits of such a security model.
Weather forecasting requires not only accuracy but also the ability to perform probabilistic prediction. However, deterministic weather forecasting methods do not support probabilistic predictions, and conversely, probabilistic models tend to be less accurate. To address these challenges, in this paper, we introduce the \textbf{\textit{D}}eterministic \textbf{\textit{G}}uidance \textbf{\textit{D}}iffusion \textbf{\textit{M}}odel (DGDM) for probabilistic weather forecasting, integrating benefits of both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. During the forward process, both the deterministic and probabilistic models are trained end-to-end. In the reverse process, weather forecasting leverages the predicted result from the deterministic model, using as an intermediate starting point for the probabilistic model. By fusing deterministic models with probabilistic models in this manner, DGDM is capable of providing accurate forecasts while also offering probabilistic predictions. To evaluate DGDM, we assess it on the global weather forecasting dataset (WeatherBench) and the common video frame prediction benchmark (Moving MNIST). We also introduce and evaluate the Pacific Northwest Windstorm (PNW)-Typhoon weather satellite dataset to verify the effectiveness of DGDM in high-resolution regional forecasting. As a result of our experiments, DGDM achieves state-of-the-art results not only in global forecasting but also in regional forecasting. The code is available at: \url{//github.com/DongGeun-Yoon/DGDM}.
The representation gap between teacher and student is an emerging topic in knowledge distillation (KD). To reduce the gap and improve the performance, current methods often resort to complicated training schemes, loss functions, and feature alignments, which are task-specific and feature-specific. In this paper, we state that the essence of these methods is to discard the noisy information and distill the valuable information in the feature, and propose a novel KD method dubbed DiffKD, to explicitly denoise and match features using diffusion models. Our approach is based on the observation that student features typically contain more noises than teacher features due to the smaller capacity of student model. To address this, we propose to denoise student features using a diffusion model trained by teacher features. This allows us to perform better distillation between the refined clean feature and teacher feature. Additionally, we introduce a light-weight diffusion model with a linear autoencoder to reduce the computation cost and an adaptive noise matching module to improve the denoising performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DiffKD is effective across various types of features and achieves state-of-the-art performance consistently on image classification, object detection, and semantic segmentation tasks. Code is available at //github.com/hunto/DiffKD.
Emotion recognition in conversation (ERC) aims to detect the emotion label for each utterance. Motivated by recent studies which have proven that feeding training examples in a meaningful order rather than considering them randomly can boost the performance of models, we propose an ERC-oriented hybrid curriculum learning framework. Our framework consists of two curricula: (1) conversation-level curriculum (CC); and (2) utterance-level curriculum (UC). In CC, we construct a difficulty measurer based on "emotion shift" frequency within a conversation, then the conversations are scheduled in an "easy to hard" schema according to the difficulty score returned by the difficulty measurer. For UC, it is implemented from an emotion-similarity perspective, which progressively strengthens the model's ability in identifying the confusing emotions. With the proposed model-agnostic hybrid curriculum learning strategy, we observe significant performance boosts over a wide range of existing ERC models and we are able to achieve new state-of-the-art results on four public ERC datasets.
Data in Knowledge Graphs often represents part of the current state of the real world. Thus, to stay up-to-date the graph data needs to be updated frequently. To utilize information from Knowledge Graphs, many state-of-the-art machine learning approaches use embedding techniques. These techniques typically compute an embedding, i.e., vector representations of the nodes as input for the main machine learning algorithm. If a graph update occurs later on -- specifically when nodes are added or removed -- the training has to be done all over again. This is undesirable, because of the time it takes and also because downstream models which were trained with these embeddings have to be retrained if they change significantly. In this paper, we investigate embedding updates that do not require full retraining and evaluate them in combination with various embedding models on real dynamic Knowledge Graphs covering multiple use cases. We study approaches that place newly appearing nodes optimally according to local information, but notice that this does not work well. However, we find that if we continue the training of the old embedding, interleaved with epochs during which we only optimize for the added and removed parts, we obtain good results in terms of typical metrics used in link prediction. This performance is obtained much faster than with a complete retraining and hence makes it possible to maintain embeddings for dynamic Knowledge Graphs.
Humans perceive the world by concurrently processing and fusing high-dimensional inputs from multiple modalities such as vision and audio. Machine perception models, in stark contrast, are typically modality-specific and optimised for unimodal benchmarks, and hence late-stage fusion of final representations or predictions from each modality (`late-fusion') is still a dominant paradigm for multimodal video classification. Instead, we introduce a novel transformer based architecture that uses `fusion bottlenecks' for modality fusion at multiple layers. Compared to traditional pairwise self-attention, our model forces information between different modalities to pass through a small number of bottleneck latents, requiring the model to collate and condense the most relevant information in each modality and only share what is necessary. We find that such a strategy improves fusion performance, at the same time reducing computational cost. We conduct thorough ablation studies, and achieve state-of-the-art results on multiple audio-visual classification benchmarks including Audioset, Epic-Kitchens and VGGSound. All code and models will be released.
The demand for artificial intelligence has grown significantly over the last decade and this growth has been fueled by advances in machine learning techniques and the ability to leverage hardware acceleration. However, in order to increase the quality of predictions and render machine learning solutions feasible for more complex applications, a substantial amount of training data is required. Although small machine learning models can be trained with modest amounts of data, the input for training larger models such as neural networks grows exponentially with the number of parameters. Since the demand for processing training data has outpaced the increase in computation power of computing machinery, there is a need for distributing the machine learning workload across multiple machines, and turning the centralized into a distributed system. These distributed systems present new challenges, first and foremost the efficient parallelization of the training process and the creation of a coherent model. This article provides an extensive overview of the current state-of-the-art in the field by outlining the challenges and opportunities of distributed machine learning over conventional (centralized) machine learning, discussing the techniques used for distributed machine learning, and providing an overview of the systems that are available.
Graphical causal inference as pioneered by Judea Pearl arose from research on artificial intelligence (AI), and for a long time had little connection to the field of machine learning. This article discusses where links have been and should be established, introducing key concepts along the way. It argues that the hard open problems of machine learning and AI are intrinsically related to causality, and explains how the field is beginning to understand them.
The present paper surveys neural approaches to conversational AI that have been developed in the last few years. We group conversational systems into three categories: (1) question answering agents, (2) task-oriented dialogue agents, and (3) chatbots. For each category, we present a review of state-of-the-art neural approaches, draw the connection between them and traditional approaches, and discuss the progress that has been made and challenges still being faced, using specific systems and models as case studies.
We study the problem of textual relation embedding with distant supervision. To combat the wrong labeling problem of distant supervision, we propose to embed textual relations with global statistics of relations, i.e., the co-occurrence statistics of textual and knowledge base relations collected from the entire corpus. This approach turns out to be more robust to the training noise introduced by distant supervision. On a popular relation extraction dataset, we show that the learned textual relation embedding can be used to augment existing relation extraction models and significantly improve their performance. Most remarkably, for the top 1,000 relational facts discovered by the best existing model, the precision can be improved from 83.9% to 89.3%.
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