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Real-world content recommendation marketplaces exhibit certain behaviors and are imposed by constraints that are not always apparent in common static offline data sets. One example that is common in ad marketplaces is swift ad turnover. New ads are introduced and old ads disappear at high rates every day. Another example is ad discontinuity, where existing ads may appear and disappear from the market for non negligible amounts of time due to a variety of reasons (e.g., depletion of budget, pausing by the advertiser, flagging by the system, and more). These behaviors sometimes cause the model's loss surface to change dramatically over short periods of time. To address these behaviors, fresh models are highly important, and to achieve this (and for several other reasons) incremental training on small chunks of past events is often employed. These behaviors and algorithmic optimizations occasionally cause model parameters to grow uncontrollably large, or \emph{diverge}. In this work present a systematic method to prevent model parameters from diverging by imposing a carefully chosen set of constraints on the model's latent vectors. We then devise a method inspired by primal-dual optimization algorithms to fulfill these constraints in a manner which both aligns well with incremental model training, and does not require any major modifications to the underlying model training algorithm. We analyze, demonstrate, and motivate our method on OFFSET, a collaborative filtering algorithm which drives Yahoo native advertising, which is one of VZM's largest and faster growing businesses, reaching a run-rate of many hundreds of millions USD per year. Finally, we conduct an online experiment which shows a substantial reduction in the number of diverging instances, and a significant improvement to both user experience and revenue.

In this paper, we develop a novel virtual-queue-based online algorithm for online convex optimization (OCO) problems with long-term and time-varying constraints and conduct a performance analysis with respect to the dynamic regret and constraint violations. We design a new update rule of dual variables and a new way of incorporating time-varying constraint functions into the dual variables. To the best of our knowledge, our algorithm is the first parameter-free algorithm to simultaneously achieve sublinear dynamic regret and constraint violations. Our proposed algorithm also outperforms the state-of-the-art results in many aspects, e.g., our algorithm does not require the Slater condition. Meanwhile, for a group of practical and widely-studied constrained OCO problems in which the variation of consecutive constraints is smooth enough across time, our algorithm achieves $O(1)$ constraint violations. Furthermore, we extend our algorithm and analysis to the case when the time horizon $T$ is unknown. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted to validate the theoretical guarantees of our algorithm, and some applications of our proposed framework will be outlined.

The statistical finite element method (StatFEM) is an emerging probabilistic method that allows observations of a physical system to be synthesised with the numerical solution of a PDE intended to describe it in a coherent statistical framework, to compensate for model error. This work presents a new theoretical analysis of the statistical finite element method demonstrating that it has similar convergence properties to the finite element method on which it is based. Our results constitute a bound on the Wasserstein-2 distance between the ideal prior and posterior and the StatFEM approximation thereof, and show that this distance converges at the same mesh-dependent rate as finite element solutions converge to the true solution. Several numerical examples are presented to demonstrate our theory, including an example which test the robustness of StatFEM when extended to nonlinear quantities of interest.

We examine a generalised queuing model which we call the G/G/n/G/+ model, which encompasses the G/G/n and G/G/n/s models as special cases. Our model accommodates useful generalisations in user behaviour and limitations on the facilities for the queuing process. Give a set of inputs for the users and facilities, we develop a recursive algorithm that computes all aspects of the queuing process, including the waiting-times, use-times and unserved-times for each user. We also show how the queue can be represented graphically in a "queuing plot". We use our algorithm to undertake simulation analysis to determine the distribution of queuing outputs given specified distributions for the inputs, and we show how this can be used to optimise the number of facilities. We conduct some simple simulations to illustrate the method using standard queuing models. Our method is implemented in various queuing functions in the utilities package in R.

We study a class of bilevel integer programs with second-order cone constraints at the upper level and a convex quadratic objective and linear constraints at the lower level. We develop disjunctive cuts to separate bilevel infeasible points using a second-order-cone-based cut-generating procedure. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time disjunctive cuts are studied in the context of discrete bilevel optimization. Using these disjunctive cuts, we establish a branch-and-cut algorithm for the problem class we study, and a cutting plane method for the problem variant with only binary variables. Our computational study demonstrates that both our approaches outperform a state-of-the-art generic solver for mixed-integer bilevel linear programs that is able to solve a linearized version of our test instances, where the non-linearities are linearized in a McCormick fashion.

This paper investigates the problem of online statistical inference of model parameters in stochastic optimization problems via the Kiefer-Wolfowitz algorithm with random search directions. We first present the asymptotic distribution for the Polyak-Ruppert-averaging type Kiefer-Wolfowitz (AKW) estimators, whose asymptotic covariance matrices depend on the function-value query complexity and the distribution of search directions. The distributional result reflects the trade-off between statistical efficiency and function query complexity. We further analyze the choices of random search directions to minimize the asymptotic covariance matrix, and conclude that the optimal search direction depends on the optimality criteria with respect to different summary statistics of the Fisher information matrix. Based on the asymptotic distribution result, we conduct online statistical inference by providing two construction procedures of valid confidence intervals. We provide numerical experiments verifying our theoretical results with the practical effectiveness of the procedures.

The Bayesian paradigm has the potential to solve core issues of deep neural networks such as poor calibration and data inefficiency. Alas, scaling Bayesian inference to large weight spaces often requires restrictive approximations. In this work, we show that it suffices to perform inference over a small subset of model weights in order to obtain accurate predictive posteriors. The other weights are kept as point estimates. This subnetwork inference framework enables us to use expressive, otherwise intractable, posterior approximations over such subsets. In particular, we implement subnetwork linearized Laplace: We first obtain a MAP estimate of all weights and then infer a full-covariance Gaussian posterior over a subnetwork. We propose a subnetwork selection strategy that aims to maximally preserve the model's predictive uncertainty. Empirically, our approach is effective compared to ensembles and less expressive posterior approximations over full networks.

Owing to the recent advances in "Big Data" modeling and prediction tasks, variational Bayesian estimation has gained popularity due to their ability to provide exact solutions to approximate posteriors. One key technique for approximate inference is stochastic variational inference (SVI). SVI poses variational inference as a stochastic optimization problem and solves it iteratively using noisy gradient estimates. It aims to handle massive data for predictive and classification tasks by applying complex Bayesian models that have observed as well as latent variables. This paper aims to decentralize it allowing parallel computation, secure learning and robustness benefits. We use Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers in a top-down setting to develop a distributed SVI algorithm such that independent learners running inference algorithms only require sharing the estimated model parameters instead of their private datasets. Our work extends the distributed SVI-ADMM algorithm that we first propose, to an ADMM-based networked SVI algorithm in which not only are the learners working distributively but they share information according to rules of a graph by which they form a network. This kind of work lies under the umbrella of `deep learning over networks' and we verify our algorithm for a topic-modeling problem for corpus of Wikipedia articles. We illustrate the results on latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) topic model in large document classification, compare performance with the centralized algorithm, and use numerical experiments to corroborate the analytical results.

We develop an approach to risk minimization and stochastic optimization that provides a convex surrogate for variance, allowing near-optimal and computationally efficient trading between approximation and estimation error. Our approach builds off of techniques for distributionally robust optimization and Owen's empirical likelihood, and we provide a number of finite-sample and asymptotic results characterizing the theoretical performance of the estimator. In particular, we show that our procedure comes with certificates of optimality, achieving (in some scenarios) faster rates of convergence than empirical risk minimization by virtue of automatically balancing bias and variance. We give corroborating empirical evidence showing that in practice, the estimator indeed trades between variance and absolute performance on a training sample, improving out-of-sample (test) performance over standard empirical risk minimization for a number of classification problems.