We study the problem of parameter estimation for large exchangeable interacting particle systems when a sample of discrete observations from a single particle is known. We propose a novel method based on martingale estimating functions constructed by employing the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the generator of the mean field limit, linearized around the (unique) invariant measure of the mean field dynamics. We then prove that our estimator is asymptotically unbiased and asymptotically normal when the number of observations and the number of particles tend to infinity, and we provide a rate of convergence towards the exact value of the parameters. Finally, we present several numerical experiments which show the accuracy of our estimator and corroborate our theoretical findings, even in the case the mean field dynamics exhibit more than one steady states.
We present a novel hybrid strategy based on machine learning to improve curvature estimation in the level-set method. The proposed inference system couples enhanced neural networks with standard numerical schemes to compute curvature more accurately. The core of our hybrid framework is a switching mechanism that relies on well established numerical techniques to gauge curvature. If the curvature magnitude is larger than a resolution-dependent threshold, it uses a neural network to yield a better approximation. Our networks are multilayer perceptrons fitted to synthetic data sets composed of sinusoidal- and circular-interface samples at various configurations. To reduce data set size and training complexity, we leverage the problem's characteristic symmetry and build our models on just half of the curvature spectrum. These savings lead to a powerful inference system able to outperform any of its numerical or neural component alone. Experiments with stationary, smooth interfaces show that our hybrid solver is notably superior to conventional numerical methods in coarse grids and along steep interface regions. Compared to prior research, we have observed outstanding gains in precision after training the regression model with data pairs from more than a single interface type and transforming data with specialized input preprocessing. In particular, our findings confirm that machine learning is a promising venue for reducing or removing mass loss in the level-set method.
Estimation of a dynamical system's latent state subject to sensor noise and model inaccuracies remains a critical yet difficult problem in robotics. While Kalman filters provide the optimal solution in the least squared sense for linear and Gaussian noise problems, the general nonlinear and non-Gaussian noise case is significantly more complicated, typically relying on sampling strategies that are limited to low-dimensional state spaces. In this paper we devise a general inference procedure for filtering of nonlinear, non-Gaussian dynamical systems that exploits the differentiability of both the update and prediction models to scale to higher dimensional spaces. Our method, Stein particle filter, can be seen as a deterministic flow of particles, embedded in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, from an initial state to the desirable posterior. The particles evolve jointly to conform to a posterior approximation while interacting with each other through a repulsive force. We evaluate the method in simulation and in complex localization tasks while comparing it to sequential Monte Carlo solutions.
A solution to control for nonresponse bias consists of multiplying the design weights of respondents by the inverse of estimated response probabilities to compensate for the nonrespondents. Maximum likelihood and calibration are two approaches that can be applied to obtain estimated response probabilities. The paper develops asymptotic properties of the resulting estimator when calibration is applied. A logistic regression model for the response probabilities is postulated and missing at random data is supposed. The author shows that the estimators with the response probabilities estimated via calibration are asymptotically equivalent to unbiased estimators and that a gain in efficiency is obtained when estimating the response probabilities via calibration as compared to the estimator with the true response probabilities.
In this work, a multirate in time approach resolving the different time scales of a convection-dominated transport and coupled fluid flow is developed and studied in view of goal-oriented error control by means of the Dual Weighted Residual (DWR) method. Key ingredients are an arbitrary degree discontinuous Galerkin time discretization of the underlying subproblems, an a posteriori error representation for the transport problem coupled with flow and its implementation using space-time tensor-product spaces. The error representation allows the separation of the temporal and spatial discretization error which serve as local error indicators for adaptive mesh refinement. The performance of the approach and its software implementation are studied by numerical convergence examples as well as an example of physical interest for convection-dominated transport.
We study ROUND-UFP and ROUND-SAP, two generalizations of the classical BIN PACKING problem that correspond to the unsplittable flow problem on a path (UFP) and the storage allocation problem (SAP), respectively. We are given a path with capacities on its edges and a set of tasks where for each task we are given a demand and a subpath. In ROUND-UFP, the goal is to find a packing of all tasks into a minimum number of copies (rounds) of the given path such that for each copy, the total demand of tasks on any edge does not exceed the capacity of the respective edge. In ROUND-SAP, the tasks are considered to be rectangles and the goal is to find a non-overlapping packing of these rectangles into a minimum number of rounds such that all rectangles lie completely below the capacity profile of the edges. We show that in contrast to BIN PACKING, both the problems do not admit an asymptotic polynomial-time approximation scheme (APTAS), even when all edge capacities are equal. However, for this setting, we obtain asymptotic $(2+\varepsilon)$-approximations for both problems. For the general case, we obtain an $O(\log\log n)$-approximation algorithm and an $O(\log\log\frac{1}{\delta})$-approximation under $(1+\delta)$-resource augmentation for both problems. For the intermediate setting of the no bottleneck assumption (i.e., the maximum task demand is at most the minimum edge capacity), we obtain absolute $12$- and asymptotic $(16+\varepsilon)$-approximation algorithms for ROUND-UFP and ROUND-SAP, respectively.
In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for log-spacings of top order statistics. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are investigated analytically and found to be asymptotically unbiased, consistent and normally distributed. Also, the finite sample behaviour of the estimators are studied through a simulations theory. The proposed estimators were found to yield low bias and MSE. In addition, the proposed estimators are illustrated through the estimation of the tail index of the underlying distribution of claims from the insurance industry.
An evolving surface finite element discretisation is analysed for the evolution of a closed two-dimensional surface governed by a system coupling a generalised forced mean curvature flow and a reaction--diffusion process on the surface, inspired by a gradient flow of a coupled energy. Two algorithms are proposed, both based on a system coupling the diffusion equation to evolution equations for geometric quantities in the velocity law for the surface. One of the numerical methods is proved to be convergent in the $H^1$ norm with optimal-order for finite elements of degree at least two. We present numerical experiments illustrating the convergence behaviour and demonstrating the qualitative properties of the flow: preservation of mean convexity, loss of convexity, weak maximum principles, and the occurrence of self-intersections.
We consider the problem of estimating high-dimensional covariance matrices of $K$-populations or classes in the setting where the sample sizes are comparable to the data dimension. We propose estimating each class covariance matrix as a distinct linear combination of all class sample covariance matrices. This approach is shown to reduce the estimation error when the sample sizes are limited, and the true class covariance matrices share a somewhat similar structure. We develop an effective method for estimating the coefficients in the linear combination that minimize the mean squared error under the general assumption that the samples are drawn from (unspecified) elliptically symmetric distributions possessing finite fourth-order moments. To this end, we utilize the spatial sign covariance matrix, which we show (under rather general conditions) to be an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the normalized covariance matrix as the dimension grows to infinity. We also show how the proposed method can be used in choosing the regularization parameters for multiple target matrices in a single class covariance matrix estimation problem. We assess the proposed method via numerical simulation studies including an application in global minimum variance portfolio optimization using real stock data.
We consider an elliptic linear-quadratic parameter estimation problem with a finite number of parameters. A novel a priori bound for the parameter error is proved and, based on this bound, an adaptive finite element method driven by an a posteriori error estimator is presented. Unlike prior results in the literature, our estimator, which is composed of standard energy error residual estimators for the state equation and suitable co-state problems, reflects the faster convergence of the parameter error compared to the (co)-state variables. We show optimal convergence rates of our method; in particular and unlike prior works, we prove that the estimator decreases with a rate that is the sum of the best approximation rates of the state and co-state variables. Experiments confirm that our method matches the convergence rate of the parameter error.
The optimal receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, giving the maximum probability of detection as a function of the probability of false alarm, is a key information-theoretic indicator of the difficulty of a binary hypothesis testing problem (BHT). It is well known that the optimal ROC curve for a given BHT, corresponding to the likelihood ratio test, is theoretically determined by the probability distribution of the observed data under each of the two hypotheses. In some cases, these two distributions may be unknown or computationally intractable, but independent samples of the likelihood ratio can be observed. This raises the problem of estimating the optimal ROC for a BHT from such samples. The maximum likelihood estimator of the optimal ROC curve is derived, and it is shown to converge to the true optimal ROC curve in the \levy\ metric, as the number of observations tends to infinity. A classical empirical estimator, based on estimating the two types of error probabilities from two separate sets of samples, is also considered. The maximum likelihood estimator is observed in simulation experiments to be considerably more accurate than the empirical estimator, especially when the number of samples obtained under one of the two hypotheses is small. The area under the maximum likelihood estimator is derived; it is a consistent estimator of the true area under the optimal ROC curve.