Defeaturing consists in simplifying geometrical models by removing the geometrical features that are considered not relevant for a given simulation. Feature removal and simplification of computer-aided design models enables faster simulations for engineering analysis problems, and simplifies the meshing problem that is otherwise often unfeasible. The effects of defeaturing on the analysis are then neglected and, as of today, there are basically very few strategies to quantitatively evaluate such an impact. Understanding well the effects of this process is an important step for automatic integration of design and analysis. We formalize the process of defeaturing by understanding its effect on the solution of Poisson equation defined on the geometrical model of interest containing a single feature, with Neumann boundary conditions on the feature itself. We derive an a posteriori estimator of the energy error between the solutions of the exact and the defeatured geometries in $\mathbb{R}^n$, $n\in\{2,3\}$, that is simple, reliable and efficient up to oscillations. The dependence of the estimator upon the size of the features is explicit.
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This paper studies Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimation of Dynamic Factor Models for large panels of time series. Specifically, we consider the case in which the autocorrelation of the factors is explicitly accounted for, and therefore the model has a state-space form. Estimation of the factors and their loadings is implemented through the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, jointly with the Kalman smoother.~We prove that as both the dimension of the panel $n$ and the sample size $T$ diverge to infinity, up to logarithmic terms: (i) the estimated loadings are $\sqrt T$-consistent and asymptotically normal if $\sqrt T/n\to 0$; (ii) the estimated factors are $\sqrt n$-consistent and asymptotically normal if $\sqrt n/T\to 0$; (iii) the estimated common component is $\min(\sqrt n,\sqrt T)$-consistent and asymptotically normal regardless of the relative rate of divergence of $n$ and $T$. Although the model is estimated as if the idiosyncratic terms were cross-sectionally and serially uncorrelated and normally distributed, we show that these mis-specifications do not affect consistency. Moreover, the estimated loadings are asymptotically as efficient as those obtained with the Principal Components estimator, while the estimated factors are more efficient if the idiosyncratic covariance is sparse enough.~We then propose robust estimators of the asymptotic covariances, which can be used to conduct inference on the loadings and to compute confidence intervals for the factors and common components. Finally, we study the performance of our estimators and we compare them with the traditional Principal Components approach through MonteCarlo simulations and analysis of US macroeconomic data.
The FOU(p) processes can be considered as an alternative to ARMA (or ARFIMA) processes to model time series. Also, there is no substantial loss when we model a time series using FOU(p) processes with the same lambda, than using differents values of lambda. In this work we propose a new method to estimate the unique value of lambda in a FOU(p) process. Under certain conditions, we will prove consistency and asymptotic normality. We will show that this new method is more easy and fast to compute. By simulations, we show that the new procedure work well and is more efficient than the general method. Also, we include an application to real data, and we show that the new method work well too and outperforms the family of ARMA(p, q).
Despite their success, policy gradient methods suffer from high variance of the gradient estimate, which can result in unsatisfactory sample complexity. Recently, numerous variance-reduced extensions of policy gradient methods with provably better sample complexity and competitive numerical performance have been proposed. After a compact survey on some of the main variance-reduced REINFORCE-type methods, we propose ProbAbilistic Gradient Estimation for Policy Gradient (PAGE-PG), a novel loopless variance-reduced policy gradient method based on a probabilistic switch between two types of updates. Our method is inspired by the PAGE estimator for supervised learning and leverages importance sampling to obtain an unbiased gradient estimator. We show that PAGE-PG enjoys a $\mathcal{O}\left( \epsilon^{-3} \right)$ average sample complexity to reach an $\epsilon$-stationary solution, which matches the sample complexity of its most competitive counterparts under the same setting. A numerical evaluation confirms the competitive performance of our method on classical control tasks.
We use a numerical-analytic technique to construct a sequence of successive approximations to the solution of a system of fractional differential equations, subject to Dirichlet boundary conditions. We prove the uniform convergence of the sequence of approximations to a limit function, which is the unique solution to the boundary value problem under consideration, and give necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of solutions. The obtained theoretical results are confirmed by a model example.
Bayesian bandit algorithms with approximate inference have been widely used in practice with superior performance. Yet, few studies regarding the fundamental understanding of their performances are available. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian bandit algorithm, which we call Generalized Bayesian Upper Confidence Bound (GBUCB), for bandit problems in the presence of approximate inference. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that in Bernoulli multi-armed bandit, GBUCB can achieve $O(\sqrt{T}(\log T)^c)$ frequentist regret if the inference error measured by symmetrized Kullback-Leibler divergence is controllable. This analysis relies on a novel sensitivity analysis for quantile shifts with respect to inference errors. To our best knowledge, our work provides the first theoretical regret bound that is better than $o(T)$ in the setting of approximate inference. Our experimental evaluations on multiple approximate inference settings corroborate our theory, showing that our GBUCB is consistently superior to BUCB and Thompson sampling.
Estimation of causal effects using machine learning methods has become an active research field in econometrics. In this paper, we study the finite sample performance of meta-learners for estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects under the usage of sample-splitting and cross-fitting to reduce the overfitting bias. In both synthetic and semi-synthetic simulations we find that the performance of the meta-learners in finite samples greatly depends on the estimation procedure. The results imply that sample-splitting and cross-fitting are beneficial in large samples for bias reduction and efficiency of the meta-learners, respectively, whereas full-sample estimation is preferable in small samples. Furthermore, we derive practical recommendations for application of specific meta-learners in empirical studies depending on particular data characteristics such as treatment shares and sample size.
In this work, we propose an interesting method that aims to approximate an activation function over some domain by polynomials of the presupposing low degree. The main idea behind this method can be seen as an extension of the ordinary least square method and includes the gradient of activation function into the cost function to minimize.
Optimum parameter estimation methods require knowledge of a parametric probability density that statistically describes the available observations. In this work we examine Bayesian and non-Bayesian parameter estimation problems under a data-driven formulation where the necessary parametric probability density is replaced by available data. We present various data-driven versions that either result in neural network approximations of the optimum estimators or in well defined optimization problems that can be solved numerically. In particular, for the data-driven equivalent of non-Bayesian estimation we end up with optimization problems similar to the ones encountered for the design of generative networks.
The low-rank matrix approximation problem is ubiquitous in computational mathematics. Traditionally, this problem is solved in spectral or Frobenius norms, where the accuracy of the approximation is related to the rate of decrease of the singular values of the matrix. However, recent results indicate that this requirement is not necessary for other norms. In this paper, we propose a method for solving the low-rank approximation problem in the Chebyshev norm, which is capable of efficiently constructing accurate approximations for matrices, whose singular values do not decrease or decrease slowly.
A kernel method for estimating a probability density function (pdf) from an i.i.d. sample drawn from such density is presented. Our estimator is a linear combination of kernel functions, the coefficients of which are determined by a linear equation. An error analysis for the mean integrated squared error is established in a general reproducing kernel Hilbert space setting. The theory developed is then applied to estimate pdfs belonging to weighted Korobov spaces, for which a dimension independent convergence rate is established. Under a suitable smoothness assumption, our method attains a rate arbitrarily close to the optimal rate. Numerical results support our theory.
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