Causal inference necessarily relies upon untestable assumptions; hence, it is crucial to assess the robustness of obtained results to violations of identification assumptions. However, such sensitivity analysis is only occasionally undertaken in practice, as many existing methods only apply to relatively simple models and their results are often difficult to interpret. We take a more flexible approach to sensitivity analysis and view it as a constrained stochastic optimization problem. This work focuses on sensitivity analysis for a linear causal effect when an unmeasured confounder and a potential instrument are present. We show how the bias of the OLS and TSLS estimands can be expressed in terms of partial correlations. Leveraging the algebraic rules that relate different partial correlations, practitioners can specify intuitive sensitivity models which bound the bias. We further show that the heuristic "plug-in" sensitivity interval may not have any confidence guarantees; instead, we propose a bootstrap approach to construct sensitivity intervals which perform well in numerical simulations. We illustrate the proposed methods with a real study on the causal effect of education on earnings and provide user-friendly visualization tools.
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We investigate the task of inserting new concepts extracted from texts into an ontology using language models. We explore an approach with three steps: edge search which is to find a set of candidate locations to insert (i.e., subsumptions between concepts), edge formation and enrichment which leverages the ontological structure to produce and enhance the edge candidates, and edge selection which eventually locates the edge to be placed into. In all steps, we propose to leverage neural methods, where we apply embedding-based methods and contrastive learning with Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) such as BERT for edge search, and adapt a BERT fine-tuning-based multi-label Edge-Cross-encoder, and Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT series, FLAN-T5, and Llama 2, for edge selection. We evaluate the methods on recent datasets created using the SNOMED CT ontology and the MedMentions entity linking benchmark. The best settings in our framework use fine-tuned PLM for search and a multi-label Cross-encoder for selection. Zero-shot prompting of LLMs is still not adequate for the task, and we propose explainable instruction tuning of LLMs for improved performance. Our study shows the advantages of PLMs and highlights the encouraging performance of LLMs that motivates future studies.
This paper studies the performance of the spectral method in the estimation and uncertainty quantification of the unobserved preference scores of compared entities in a general and more realistic setup. Specifically, the comparison graph consists of hyper-edges of possible heterogeneous sizes, and the number of comparisons can be as low as one for a given hyper-edge. Such a setting is pervasive in real applications, circumventing the need to specify the graph randomness and the restrictive homogeneous sampling assumption imposed in the commonly used Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) or Plackett-Luce (PL) models. Furthermore, in scenarios where the BTL or PL models are appropriate, we unravel the relationship between the spectral estimator and the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE). We discover that a two-step spectral method, where we apply the optimal weighting estimated from the equal weighting vanilla spectral method, can achieve the same asymptotic efficiency as the MLE. Given the asymptotic distributions of the estimated preference scores, we also introduce a comprehensive framework to carry out both one-sample and two-sample ranking inferences, applicable to both fixed and random graph settings. It is noteworthy that this is the first time effective two-sample rank testing methods have been proposed. Finally, we substantiate our findings via comprehensive numerical simulations and subsequently apply our developed methodologies to perform statistical inferences for statistical journals and movie rankings.
Despite the importance of trust in human-AI interactions, researchers must adopt questionnaires from other disciplines that lack validation in the AI context. Motivated by the need for reliable and valid measures, we investigated the psychometric quality of two trust questionnaires, the Trust between People and Automation scale (TPA) by Jian et al. (2000) and the Trust Scale for the AI Context (TAI) by Hoffman et al. (2023). In a pre-registered online experiment (N = 1485), participants observed interactions with trustworthy and untrustworthy AI (autonomous vehicle and chatbot). Results support the psychometric quality of the TAI while revealing opportunities to improve the TPA, which we outline in our recommendations for using the two questionnaires. Furthermore, our findings provide additional empirical evidence of trust and distrust as two distinct constructs that may coexist independently. Building on our findings, we highlight the opportunities and added value of measuring both trust and distrust in human-AI research and advocate for further work on both constructs.
Providing personalized recommendations for insurance products is particularly challenging due to the intrinsic and distinctive features of the insurance domain. First, unlike more traditional domains like retail, movie etc., a large amount of user feedback is not available and the item catalog is smaller. Second, due to the higher complexity of products, the majority of users still prefer to complete their purchases over the phone instead of online. We present different recommender models to address such data scarcity in the insurance domain. We use recurrent neural networks with 3 different types of loss functions and architectures (cross-entropy, censored Weibull, attention). Our models cope with data scarcity by learning from multiple sessions and different types of user actions. Moreover, differently from previous session-based models, our models learn to predict a target action that does not happen within the session. Our models outperform state-of-the-art baselines on a real-world insurance dataset, with ca. 44K users, 16 items, 54K purchases and 117K sessions. Moreover, combining our models with demographic data boosts the performance. Analysis shows that considering multiple sessions and several types of actions are both beneficial for the models, and that our models are not unfair with respect to age, gender and income.
Bayesian approaches to reconstructing the evolutionary history of languages rely on the tree model, which assumes that these languages descended from a common ancestor and underwent modifications over time. However, this assumption can be violated to different extents due to contact and other factors. Understanding the degree to which this assumption is violated is crucial for validating the accuracy of phylolinguistic inference. In this paper, we propose a simple sanity check: projecting a reconstructed tree onto a space generated by principal component analysis. By using both synthetic and real data, we demonstrate that our method effectively visualizes anomalies, particularly in the form of jogging.
Link prediction on knowledge graphs (KGs) is a key research topic. Previous work mainly focused on binary relations, paying less attention to higher-arity relations although they are ubiquitous in real-world KGs. This paper considers link prediction upon n-ary relational facts and proposes a graph-based approach to this task. The key to our approach is to represent the n-ary structure of a fact as a small heterogeneous graph, and model this graph with edge-biased fully-connected attention. The fully-connected attention captures universal inter-vertex interactions, while with edge-aware attentive biases to particularly encode the graph structure and its heterogeneity. In this fashion, our approach fully models global and local dependencies in each n-ary fact, and hence can more effectively capture associations therein. Extensive evaluation verifies the effectiveness and superiority of our approach. It performs substantially and consistently better than current state-of-the-art across a variety of n-ary relational benchmarks. Our code is publicly available.
To retrieve more relevant, appropriate and useful documents given a query, finding clues about that query through the text is crucial. Recent deep learning models regard the task as a term-level matching problem, which seeks exact or similar query patterns in the document. However, we argue that they are inherently based on local interactions and do not generalise to ubiquitous, non-consecutive contextual relationships.In this work, we propose a novel relevance matching model based on graph neural networks to leverage the document-level word relationships for ad-hoc retrieval. In addition to the local interactions, we explicitly incorporate all contexts of a term through the graph-of-word text format. Matching patterns can be revealed accordingly to provide a more accurate relevance score. Our approach significantly outperforms strong baselines on two ad-hoc benchmarks. We also experimentally compare our model with BERT and show our ad-vantages on long documents.
In Multi-Label Text Classification (MLTC), one sample can belong to more than one class. It is observed that most MLTC tasks, there are dependencies or correlations among labels. Existing methods tend to ignore the relationship among labels. In this paper, a graph attention network-based model is proposed to capture the attentive dependency structure among the labels. The graph attention network uses a feature matrix and a correlation matrix to capture and explore the crucial dependencies between the labels and generate classifiers for the task. The generated classifiers are applied to sentence feature vectors obtained from the text feature extraction network (BiLSTM) to enable end-to-end training. Attention allows the system to assign different weights to neighbor nodes per label, thus allowing it to learn the dependencies among labels implicitly. The results of the proposed model are validated on five real-world MLTC datasets. The proposed model achieves similar or better performance compared to the previous state-of-the-art models.
InteractE: Improving Convolution-based Knowledge Graph Embeddings by Increasing Feature Interactions
Most existing knowledge graphs suffer from incompleteness, which can be alleviated by inferring missing links based on known facts. One popular way to accomplish this is to generate low-dimensional embeddings of entities and relations, and use these to make inferences. ConvE, a recently proposed approach, applies convolutional filters on 2D reshapings of entity and relation embeddings in order to capture rich interactions between their components. However, the number of interactions that ConvE can capture is limited. In this paper, we analyze how increasing the number of these interactions affects link prediction performance, and utilize our observations to propose InteractE. InteractE is based on three key ideas -- feature permutation, a novel feature reshaping, and circular convolution. Through extensive experiments, we find that InteractE outperforms state-of-the-art convolutional link prediction baselines on FB15k-237. Further, InteractE achieves an MRR score that is 9%, 7.5%, and 23% better than ConvE on the FB15k-237, WN18RR and YAGO3-10 datasets respectively. The results validate our central hypothesis -- that increasing feature interaction is beneficial to link prediction performance. We make the source code of InteractE available to encourage reproducible research.
We examine the problem of question answering over knowledge graphs, focusing on simple questions that can be answered by the lookup of a single fact. Adopting a straightforward decomposition of the problem into entity detection, entity linking, relation prediction, and evidence combination, we explore simple yet strong baselines. On the popular SimpleQuestions dataset, we find that basic LSTMs and GRUs plus a few heuristics yield accuracies that approach the state of the art, and techniques that do not use neural networks also perform reasonably well. These results show that gains from sophisticated deep learning techniques proposed in the literature are quite modest and that some previous models exhibit unnecessary complexity.
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