This work considers stationary vector count time series models defined via deterministic functions of a latent stationary vector Gaussian series. The construction is very general and ensures a pre-specified marginal distribution for the counts in each dimension, depending on unknown parameters that can be marginally estimated. The vector Gaussian series injects flexibility into the model's temporal and cross-dimensional dependencies, perhaps through a parametric model akin to a vector autoregression. We show that the latent Gaussian model can be estimated by relating the covariances of the counts and the latent Gaussian series. In a possibly high-dimensional setting, concentration bounds are established for the differences between the estimated and true latent Gaussian autocovariances, in terms of those for the observed count series and the estimated marginal parameters. The results are applied to the case where the latent Gaussian series is a vector autoregression, and its parameters are estimated sparsely through a LASSO-type procedure.
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Incomplete covariate vectors are known to be problematic for estimation and inferences on model parameters, but their impact on prediction performance is less understood. We develop an imputation-free method that builds on a random partition model admitting variable-dimension covariates. Cluster-specific response models further incorporate covariates via linear predictors, facilitating estimation of smooth prediction surfaces with relatively few clusters. We exploit marginalization techniques of Gaussian kernels to analytically project response distributions according to any pattern of missing covariates, yielding a local regression with internally consistent uncertainty propagation that utilizes only one set of coefficients per cluster. Aggressive shrinkage of these coefficients regulates uncertainty due to missing covariates. The method allows in- and out-of-sample prediction for any missingness pattern, even if the pattern in a new subject's incomplete covariate vector was not seen in the training data. We develop an MCMC algorithm for posterior sampling that improves a computationally expensive update for latent cluster allocation. Finally, we demonstrate the model's effectiveness for nonlinear point and density prediction under various circumstances by comparing with other recent methods for regression of variable dimensions on synthetic and real data.
We introduce the Weak-form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics (WENDy) method for estimating model parameters for non-linear systems of ODEs. The core mathematical idea involves an efficient conversion of the strong form representation of a model to its weak form, and then solving a regression problem to perform parameter inference. The core statistical idea rests on the Errors-In-Variables framework, which necessitates the use of the iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm. Further improvements are obtained by using orthonormal test functions, created from a set of $C^{\infty}$ bump functions of varying support sizes. We demonstrate that WENDy is a highly robust and efficient method for parameter inference in differential equations. Without relying on any numerical differential equation solvers, WENDy computes accurate estimates and is robust to large (biologically relevant) levels of measurement noise. For low dimensional systems with modest amounts of data, WENDy is competitive with conventional forward solver-based nonlinear least squares methods in terms of speed and accuracy. For both higher dimensional systems and stiff systems, WENDy is typically both faster (often by orders of magnitude) and more accurate than forward solver-based approaches. We illustrate the method and its performance in some common population and neuroscience models, including logistic growth, Lotka-Volterra, FitzHugh-Nagumo, Hindmarsh-Rose, and a Protein Transduction Benchmark model. Software and code for reproducing the examples is available at (//github.com/MathBioCU/WENDy).
Thompson sampling (TS) for the parametric stochastic multi-armed bandits has been well studied under the one-dimensional parametric models. It is often reported that TS is fairly insensitive to the choice of the prior when it comes to regret bounds. However, this property is not necessarily true when multiparameter models are considered, e.g., a Gaussian model with unknown mean and variance parameters. In this paper, we first extend the regret analysis of TS to the model of uniform distributions with unknown supports. Specifically, we show that a switch of noninformative priors drastically affects the regret in expectation. Through our analysis, the uniform prior is proven to be the optimal choice in terms of the expected regret, while the reference prior and the Jeffreys prior are found to be suboptimal, which is consistent with previous findings in the model of Gaussian distributions. However, the uniform prior is specific to the parameterization of the distributions, meaning that if an agent considers different parameterizations of the same model, the agent with the uniform prior might not always achieve the optimal performance. In light of this limitation, we propose a slightly modified TS-based policy, called TS with Truncation (TS-T), which can achieve the asymptotic optimality for the Gaussian distributions and the uniform distributions by using the reference prior and the Jeffreys prior that are invariant under one-to-one reparameterizations. The pre-processig of the posterior distribution is the key to TS-T, where we add an adaptive truncation procedure on the parameter space of the posterior distributions. Simulation results support our analysis, where TS-T shows the best performance in a finite-time horizon compared to other known optimal policies, while TS with the invariant priors performs poorly.
We consider random sample splitting for estimation and inference in high dimensional generalized linear models, where we first apply the lasso to select a submodel using one subsample and then apply the debiased lasso to fit the selected model using the remaining subsample. We show that, no matter including a prespecified subset of regression coefficients or not, the debiased lasso estimation of the selected submodel after a single splitting follows a normal distribution asymptotically. Furthermore, for a set of prespecified regression coefficients, we show that a multiple splitting procedure based on the debiased lasso can address the loss of efficiency associated with sample splitting and produce asymptotically normal estimates under mild conditions. Our simulation results indicate that using the debiased lasso instead of the standard maximum likelihood estimator in the estimation stage can vastly reduce the bias and variance of the resulting estimates. We illustrate the proposed multiple splitting debiased lasso method with an analysis of the smoking data of the Mid-South Tobacco Case-Control Study.
We consider a time-varying first-order autoregressive model with irregular innovations, where we assume that the coefficient function is H\"{o}lder continuous. To estimate this function, we use a quasi-maximum likelihood based approach. A precise control of this method demands a delicate analysis of extremes of certain weakly dependent processes, our main result being a concentration inequality for such quantities. Based on our analysis, upper and matching minimax lower bounds are derived, showing the optimality of our estimators. Unlike the regular case, the information theoretic complexity depends both on the smoothness and an additional shape parameter, characterizing the irregularity of the underlying distribution. The results and ideas for the proofs are very different from classical and more recent methods in connection with statistics and inference for locally stationary processes.
In this paper, we target the problem of sufficient dimension reduction with symmetric positive definite matrices valued responses. We propose the intrinsic minimum average variance estimation method and the intrinsic outer product gradient method which fully exploit the geometric structure of the Riemannian manifold where responses lie. We present the algorithms for our newly developed methods under the log-Euclidean metric and the log-Cholesky metric. Each of the two metrics is linked to an abelian Lie group structure that transforms our model defined on a manifold into a Euclidean one. The proposed methods are then further extended to general Riemannian manifolds. We establish rigourous asymptotic results for the proposed estimators, including the rate of convergence and the asymptotic normality. We also develop a cross validation algorithm for the estimation of the structural dimension with theoretical guarantee Comprehensive simulation studies and an application to the New York taxi network data are performed to show the superiority of the proposed methods.
Feature Learning for Nonlinear Dimensionality Reduction toward Maximal Extraction of Hidden Patterns
Dimensionality reduction (DR) plays a vital role in the visual analysis of high-dimensional data. One main aim of DR is to reveal hidden patterns that lie on intrinsic low-dimensional manifolds. However, DR often overlooks important patterns when the manifolds are distorted or masked by certain influential data attributes. This paper presents a feature learning framework, FEALM, designed to generate a set of optimized data projections for nonlinear DR in order to capture important patterns in the hidden manifolds. These projections produce maximally different nearest-neighbor graphs so that resultant DR outcomes are significantly different. To achieve such a capability, we design an optimization algorithm as well as introduce a new graph dissimilarity measure, named neighbor-shape dissimilarity. Additionally, we develop interactive visualizations to assist comparison of obtained DR results and interpretation of each DR result. We demonstrate FEALM's effectiveness through experiments and case studies using synthetic and real-world datasets.
We consider the problem of supervised dimension reduction with a particular focus on extreme values of the target $Y\in\mathbb{R}$ to be explained by a covariate vector $X \in \mathbb{R}^p$. The general purpose is to define and estimate a projection on a lower dimensional subspace of the covariate space which is sufficient for predicting exceedances of the target above high thresholds. We propose an original definition of Tail Conditional Independence which matches this purpose. Inspired by Sliced Inverse Regression (SIR) methods, we develop a novel framework (TIREX, Tail Inverse Regression for EXtreme response) in order to estimate an extreme sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) space of potentially smaller dimension than that of a classical SDR space. We prove the weak convergence of tail empirical processes involved in the estimation procedure and we illustrate the relevance of the proposed approach on simulated and real world data.
Weighted timed games are zero-sum games played by two players on a timed automaton equipped with weights, where one player wants to minimise the cumulative weight while reaching a target. Used in a reactive synthesis perspective, this quantitative extension of timed games allows one to measure the quality of controllers in real-time systems. Weighted timed games are notoriously difficult and quickly undecidable, even when restricted to non-negative weights. For non-negative weights, the largest class that can be analysed has been introduced by Bouyer, Jaziri and Markey in 2015. Though the value problem is undecidable, the authors show how to approximate the value by considering regions with a refined granularity. In this work, we extend this class to incorporate negative weights, allowing one to model energy for instance, and prove that the value can still be approximated, with the same complexity. A small restriction also allows us to obtain a class of decidable weighted timed games with negative weights and an arbitrary number of clocks. In addition, we show that a symbolic algorithm, relying on the paradigm of value iteration, can be used as an approximation/computation schema over these classes. We also consider the special case of untimed weighted games, where the same fragments are solvable in polynomial time: this contrasts with the pseudo-polynomial complexity, known so far, for weighted games without restrictions.
We prove a convergence theorem for U-statistics of degree two, where the data dimension $d$ is allowed to scale with sample size $n$. We find that the limiting distribution of a U-statistic undergoes a phase transition from the non-degenerate Gaussian limit to the degenerate limit, regardless of its degeneracy and depending only on a moment ratio. A surprising consequence is that a non-degenerate U-statistic in high dimensions can have a non-Gaussian limit with a larger variance and asymmetric distribution. Our bounds are valid for any finite $n$ and $d$, independent of individual eigenvalues of the underlying function, and dimension-independent under a mild assumption. As an application, we apply our theory to two popular kernel-based distribution tests, MMD and KSD, whose high-dimensional performance has been challenging to study. In a simple empirical setting, our results correctly predict how the test power at a fixed threshold scales with $d$ and the bandwidth.
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