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The use of neural networks has been very successful in a wide variety of applications. However, it has recently been observed that it is difficult to generalize the performance of neural networks under the condition of distributional shift. Several efforts have been made to identify potential out-of-distribution inputs. Although existing literature has made significant progress with regard to images and textual data, finance has been overlooked. The aim of this paper is to investigate the distribution shift in the credit scoring problem, one of the most important applications of finance. For the potential distribution shift problem, we propose a novel two-stage model. Using the out-of-distribution detection method, data is first separated into confident and unconfident sets. As a second step, we utilize the domain knowledge with a mean-variance optimization in order to provide reliable bounds for unconfident samples. Using empirical results, we demonstrate that our model offers reliable predictions for the vast majority of datasets. It is only a small portion of the dataset that is inherently difficult to judge, and we leave them to the judgment of human beings. Based on the two-stage model, highly confident predictions have been made and potential risks associated with the model have been significantly reduced.

Task-oriented dialog (TOD) systems often require interaction with an external knowledge base to retrieve necessary entity (e.g., restaurant) information to support the response generation. Most current end-to-end TOD systems either retrieve the KB information explicitly or embed it into model parameters for implicit access.~While the former approach demands scanning the KB at each turn of response generation, which is inefficient when the KB scales up, the latter approach shows higher flexibility and efficiency. In either approach, the systems may generate a response with conflicting entity information. To address this issue, we propose to generate the entity autoregressively first and leverage it to guide the response generation in an end-to-end system. To ensure entity consistency, we impose a trie constraint on entity generation. We also introduce a logit concatenation strategy to facilitate gradient backpropagation for end-to-end training. Experiments on MultiWOZ 2.1 single and CAMREST show that our system can generate more high-quality and entity-consistent responses.

We study the offline reinforcement learning (RL) in the face of unmeasured confounders. Due to the lack of online interaction with the environment, offline RL is facing the following two significant challenges: (i) the agent may be confounded by the unobserved state variables; (ii) the offline data collected a prior does not provide sufficient coverage for the environment. To tackle the above challenges, we study the policy learning in the confounded MDPs with the aid of instrumental variables. Specifically, we first establish value function (VF)-based and marginalized importance sampling (MIS)-based identification results for the expected total reward in the confounded MDPs. Then by leveraging pessimism and our identification results, we propose various policy learning methods with the finite-sample suboptimality guarantee of finding the optimal in-class policy under minimal data coverage and modeling assumptions. Lastly, our extensive theoretical investigations and one numerical study motivated by the kidney transplantation demonstrate the promising performance of the proposed methods.

Spatial autocorrelation measures such as Moran's index can be expressed as a pair of equations based on a standardized size variable and a globally normalized weight matrix. One is based on inner product, and the other is based on outer product of the size variable. The inner product equation is actually a spatial autocorrelation model. However, the theoretical basis of the inner product equation for Moran's index is not clear. This paper is devoted to revealing the antecedents and consequences of the inner product equation of Moran's index. The method is mathematical derivation and empirical analysis. The main results are as follows. First, the inner product equation is derived from a simple spatial autoregressive model, and thus the relation between Moran's index and spatial autoregressive coefficient is clarified. Second, the least squares regression is proved to be one of effective approaches for estimating spatial autoregressive coefficient. Third, the value ranges of the spatial autoregressive coefficient can be identified from three angles of view. A conclusion can be drawn that a spatial autocorrelation model is actually an inverse spatial autoregressive model, and Moran's index and spatial autoregressive models can be integrated into the same framework through inner product and outer product equations. This work may be helpful for understanding the connections and differences between spatial autocorrelation measurements and spatial autoregressive modeling.

We consider Bayesian error-in-variable (EIV) linear regression accounting for additional additive Gaussian error in the features and response. We construct 3-variable deterministic scan Gibbs samplers for EIV regression models using classical and Berkson errors with independent normal and inverse-gamma priors. We prove these Gibbs samplers are always geometrically ergodic which ensures a central limit theorem for many time averages from the Markov chains.

Capturing the conditional covariances or correlations among the elements of a multivariate response vector based on covariates is important to various fields including neuroscience, epidemiology and biomedicine. We propose a new method called Covariance Regression with Random Forests (CovRegRF) to estimate the covariance matrix of a multivariate response given a set of covariates, using a random forest framework. Random forest trees are built with a splitting rule specially designed to maximize the difference between the sample covariance matrix estimates of the child nodes. We also propose a significance test for the partial effect of a subset of covariates. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method and significance test through a simulation study which shows that the proposed method provides accurate covariance matrix estimates and that the Type-1 error is well controlled. We also demonstrate an application of the proposed method with a thyroid disease data set.

Complicated underwater environments bring new challenges to object detection, such as unbalanced light conditions, low contrast, occlusion, and mimicry of aquatic organisms. Under these circumstances, the objects captured by the underwater camera will become vague, and the generic detectors often fail on these vague objects. This work aims to solve the problem from two perspectives: uncertainty modeling and hard example mining. We propose a two-stage underwater detector named boosting R-CNN, which comprises three key components. First, a new region proposal network named RetinaRPN is proposed, which provides high-quality proposals and considers objectness and IoU prediction for uncertainty to model the object prior probability. Second, the probabilistic inference pipeline is introduced to combine the first-stage prior uncertainty and the second-stage classification score to model the final detection score. Finally, we propose a new hard example mining method named boosting reweighting. Specifically, when the region proposal network miscalculates the object prior probability for a sample, boosting reweighting will increase the classification loss of the sample in the R-CNN head during training, while reducing the loss of easy samples with accurately estimated priors. Thus, a robust detection head in the second stage can be obtained. During the inference stage, the R-CNN has the capability to rectify the error of the first stage to improve the performance. Comprehensive experiments on two underwater datasets and two generic object detection datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our method.

Interval-censored multi-state data arise in many studies of chronic diseases, where the health status of a subject can be characterized by a finite number of disease states and the transition between any two states is only known to occur over a broad time interval. We formulate the effects of potentially time-dependent covariates on multi-state processes through semiparametric proportional intensity models with random effects. We adopt nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation (NPMLE) under general interval censoring and develop a stable expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. We show that the resulting parameter estimators are consistent and that the finite-dimensional components are asymptotically normal with a covariance matrix that attains the semiparametric efficiency bound and can be consistently estimated through profile likelihood. In addition, we demonstrate through extensive simulation studies that the proposed numerical and inferential procedures perform well in realistic settings. Finally, we provide an application to a major epidemiologic cohort study.

We study the problem of high-dimensional sparse linear regression in a distributed setting under both computational and communication constraints. Specifically, we consider a star topology network whereby several machines are connected to a fusion center, with whom they can exchange relatively short messages. Each machine holds noisy samples from a linear regression model with the same unknown sparse $d$-dimensional vector of regression coefficients $\theta$. The goal of the fusion center is to estimate the vector $\theta$ and its support using few computations and limited communication at each machine. In this work, we consider distributed algorithms based on Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (OMP) and theoretically study their ability to exactly recover the support of $\theta$. We prove that under certain conditions, even at low signal-to-noise-ratios where individual machines are unable to detect the support of $\theta$, distributed-OMP methods correctly recover it with total communication sublinear in $d$. In addition, we present simulations that illustrate the performance of distributed OMP-based algorithms and show that they perform similarly to more sophisticated and computationally intensive methods, and in some cases even outperform them.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.