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A confidence sequence is a sequence of confidence intervals that is uniformly valid over an unbounded time horizon. Our work develops confidence sequences whose widths go to zero, with nonasymptotic coverage guarantees under nonparametric conditions. We draw connections between the Cram\'er-Chernoff method for exponential concentration, the law of the iterated logarithm (LIL), and the sequential probability ratio test -- our confidence sequences are time-uniform extensions of the first; provide tight, nonasymptotic characterizations of the second; and generalize the third to nonparametric settings, including sub-Gaussian and Bernstein conditions, self-normalized processes, and matrix martingales. We illustrate the generality of our proof techniques by deriving an empirical-Bernstein bound growing at a LIL rate, as well as a novel upper LIL for the maximum eigenvalue of a sum of random matrices. Finally, we apply our methods to covariance matrix estimation and to estimation of sample average treatment effect under the Neyman-Rubin potential outcomes model.

Retrieving a signal from the Fourier transform of its third-order statistics or bispectrum arises in a wide range of signal processing problems. Conventional methods do not provide a unique inversion of bispectrum. In this paper, we present a an approach that uniquely recovers signals with finite spectral support (band-limited signals) from at least $3B$ measurements of its bispectrum function (BF), where $B$ is the signal's bandwidth. Our approach also extends to time-limited signals. We propose a two-step trust region algorithm that minimizes a non-convex objective function. First, we approximate the signal by a spectral algorithm. Then, we refine the attained initialization based upon a sequence of gradient iterations. Numerical experiments suggest that our proposed algorithm is able to estimate band/time-limited signals from its BF for both complete and undersampled observations.

Advances in information technology have led to extremely large datasets that are often kept in different storage centers. Existing statistical methods must be adapted to overcome the resulting computational obstacles while retaining statistical validity and efficiency. Split-and-conquer approaches have been applied in many areas, including quantile processes, regression analysis, principal eigenspaces, and exponential families. We study split-and-conquer approaches for the distributed learning of finite Gaussian mixtures. We recommend a reduction strategy and develop an effective MM algorithm. The new estimator is shown to be consistent and retains root-n consistency under some general conditions. Experiments based on simulated and real-world data show that the proposed split-and-conquer approach has comparable statistical performance with the global estimator based on the full dataset, if the latter is feasible. It can even slightly outperform the global estimator if the model assumption does not match the real-world data. It also has better statistical and computational performance than some existing methods.

Causal mediation analysis concerns the pathways through which a treatment affects an outcome. While most of the mediation literature focuses on settings with a single mediator, a flourishing line of research has examined settings involving multiple mediators, under which path-specific effects (PSEs) are often of interest. We consider estimation of PSEs when the treatment effect operates through K(\geq1) causally ordered, possibly multivariate mediators. In this setting, the PSEs for many causal paths are not nonparametrically identified, and we focus on a set of PSEs that are identified under Pearl's nonparametric structural equation model. These PSEs are defined as contrasts between the expectations of 2^{K+1} potential outcomes and identified via what we call the generalized mediation functional (GMF). We introduce an array of regression-imputation, weighting, and "hybrid" estimators, and, in particular, two K+2-robust and locally semiparametric efficient estimators for the GMF. The latter estimators are well suited to the use of data-adaptive methods for estimating their nuisance functions. We establish the rate conditions required of the nuisance functions for semiparametric efficiency. We also discuss how our framework applies to several estimands that may be of particular interest in empirical applications. The proposed estimators are illustrated with a simulation study and an empirical example.

Most of the lattice Boltzmann methods simulate an approximation of the sharp interface problem of dissolution and precipitation. In such studies the curvature-driven motion of interface is neglected in the Gibbs-Thomson condition. In order to simulate those phenomena with or without curvature-driven motion, we propose a phase-field model which is derived from a thermodynamic functional of grand-potential. Compared to the well-known free energy, the main advantage of the grand-potential is to provide a theoretical framework which is consistent with the equilibrium properties such as the equality of chemical potentials. The model is composed of one equation for the phase-field {\phi} coupled with one equation for the chemical potential {\mu}. In the phase-field method, the curvature-driven motion is always contained in the phase-field equation. For canceling it, a counter term must be added in the {\phi}-equation. For reason of mass conservation, the {\mu}-equation is written with a mixed formulation which involves the composition c and the chemical potential. The closure relationship between c and {\mu} is derived by assuming quadratic free energies of bulk phases. The anti-trapping current is also considered in the composition equation for simulations with null diffusion in solid. The lattice Boltzmann schemes are implemented in LBM_saclay, a numerical code running on various High Performance Computing architectures. Validations are carried out with several analytical solutions representative of dissolution and precipitation. Simulations with or without counter term are compared on the shape of porous medium characterized by microtomography. The computations have run on a single GPU-V100.

A key advantage of isogeometric discretizations is their accurate and well-behaved eigenfrequencies and eigenmodes. For degree two and higher, however, optical branches of spurious outlier frequencies and modes may appear due to boundaries or reduced continuity at patch interfaces. In this paper, we introduce a variational approach based on perturbed eigenvalue analysis that eliminates outlier frequencies without negatively affecting the accuracy in the remainder of the spectrum and modes. We then propose a pragmatic iterative procedure that estimates the perturbation parameters in such a way that the outlier frequencies are effectively reduced. We demonstrate that our approach allows for a much larger critical time-step size in explicit dynamics calculations. In addition, we show that the critical time-step size obtained with the proposed approach does not depend on the polynomial degree of spline basis functions.

Approaches based on deep neural networks have achieved striking performance when testing data and training data share similar distribution, but can significantly fail otherwise. Therefore, eliminating the impact of distribution shifts between training and testing data is crucial for building performance-promising deep models. Conventional methods assume either the known heterogeneity of training data (e.g. domain labels) or the approximately equal capacities of different domains. In this paper, we consider a more challenging case where neither of the above assumptions holds. We propose to address this problem by removing the dependencies between features via learning weights for training samples, which helps deep models get rid of spurious correlations and, in turn, concentrate more on the true connection between discriminative features and labels. Extensive experiments clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on multiple distribution generalization benchmarks compared with state-of-the-art counterparts. Through extensive experiments on distribution generalization benchmarks including PACS, VLCS, MNIST-M, and NICO, we show the effectiveness of our method compared with state-of-the-art counterparts.

Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any derived quantities, but can be shown to be equivalent to maximizing likelihood under some conditions. Our result holds in the non-asymptotic parametric setting, where both the capacity of the model and the number of data examples are finite. We also demonstrate encouraging experimental results.

This work focuses on combining nonparametric topic models with Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes (AEVB). Specifically, we first propose iTM-VAE, where the topics are treated as trainable parameters and the document-specific topic proportions are obtained by a stick-breaking construction. The inference of iTM-VAE is modeled by neural networks such that it can be computed in a simple feed-forward manner. We also describe how to introduce a hyper-prior into iTM-VAE so as to model the uncertainty of the prior parameter. Actually, the hyper-prior technique is quite general and we show that it can be applied to other AEVB based models to alleviate the {\it collapse-to-prior} problem elegantly. Moreover, we also propose HiTM-VAE, where the document-specific topic distributions are generated in a hierarchical manner. HiTM-VAE is even more flexible and can generate topic distributions with better variability. Experimental results on 20News and Reuters RCV1-V2 datasets show that the proposed models outperform the state-of-the-art baselines significantly. The advantages of the hyper-prior technique and the hierarchical model construction are also confirmed by experiments.

In this paper, we study the optimal convergence rate for distributed convex optimization problems in networks. We model the communication restrictions imposed by the network as a set of affine constraints and provide optimal complexity bounds for four different setups, namely: the function $F(\xb) \triangleq \sum_{i=1}^{m}f_i(\xb)$ is strongly convex and smooth, either strongly convex or smooth or just convex. Our results show that Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent on the dual problem can be executed in a distributed manner and obtains the same optimal rates as in the centralized version of the problem (up to constant or logarithmic factors) with an additional cost related to the spectral gap of the interaction matrix. Finally, we discuss some extensions to the proposed setup such as proximal friendly functions, time-varying graphs, improvement of the condition numbers.