A transition to a low-carbon electricity supply is crucial to limit the impacts of climate change. Reducing carbon emissions could help prevent the world from reaching a tipping point, where runaway emissions are likely. Runaway emissions could lead to extremes in weather conditions around the world -- especially in problematic regions unable to cope with these conditions. However, the movement to a low-carbon energy supply can not happen instantaneously due to the existing fossil-fuel infrastructure and the requirement to maintain a reliable energy supply. Therefore, a low-carbon transition is required, however, the decisions various stakeholders should make over the coming decades to reduce these carbon emissions are not obvious. This is due to many long-term uncertainties, such as electricity, fuel and generation costs, human behaviour and the size of electricity demand. A well choreographed low-carbon transition is, therefore, required between all of the heterogenous actors in the system, as opposed to changing the behaviour of a single, centralised actor. The objective of this thesis is to create a novel, open-source agent-based model to better understand the manner in which the whole electricity market reacts to different factors using state-of-the-art machine learning and artificial intelligence methods. In contrast to other works, this thesis looks at both the long-term and short-term impact that different behaviours have on the electricity market by using these state-of-the-art methods.
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In this work we develop a new algorithm for rating of teams (or players) in one-on-one games by exploiting the observed difference of the game-points (such as goals), also known as a margin of victory (MOV). Our objective is to obtain the Elo-style algorithm whose operation is simple to implement and to understand intuitively. This is done in three steps: first, we define the probabilistic model between the teams' skills and the discretized MOV variable: this generalizes the model underpinning the Elo algorithm, where the MOV variable is discretized into three categories (win/loss/draw). Second, with the formal probabilistic model at hand, the optimization required by the maximum likelihood rule is implemented via stochastic gradient; this yields simple on-line equations for the rating updates which are identical in their general form to those characteristic of the Elo algorithm: the main difference lies in the way the scores and the expected scores are defined. Third, we propose a simple method to estimate the coefficients of the model, and thus define the operation of the algorithm; it is done in a closed form using the historical data so the algorithm is tailored to the sport of interest and the coefficients defining its operation are determined in entirely transparent manner. The alternative, optimization-based strategy to find the coefficients is also presented. We show numerical examples based on the results of the association football of the English Premier League and the American football of the National Football League.
Wastewater based epidemiology is recognized as one of the monitoring pillars, providing essential information for pandemic management. Central in the methodology are data modelling concepts for both communicating the monitoring results but also for analysis of the signal. It is due to the fast development of the field that a range of modelling concepts are used but without a coherent framework. This paper provides for such a framework, focusing on robust and simple concepts readily applicable, rather than applying latest findings from e.g., machine learning. It is demonstrated that data preprocessing, most important normalization by means of biomarkers and equal temporal spacing of the scattered data, is crucial. In terms of the latter, downsampling to a weekly spaced series is sufficient. Also, data smoothing turned out to be essential, not only for communication of the signal dynamics but likewise for regressions, nowcasting and forecasting. Correlation of the signal with epidemic indicators require multivariate regression as the signal alone cannot explain the dynamics but simple linear regression proofed to be a suitable tool for compensation. It was also demonstrated that short term prediction (7 days) is accurate with simple models (exponential smoothing or autoregressive models) but forecast accuracy deteriorates fast for longer periods.
Designing effective rehabilitation strategies for upper extremities, particularly hands and fingers, warrants the need for a computational model of human motor learning. The presence of large degrees of freedom (DoFs) available in these systems makes it difficult to balance the trade-off between learning the full dexterity and accomplishing manipulation goals. The motor learning literature argues that humans use motor synergies to reduce the dimension of control space. Using the low-dimensional space spanned by these synergies, we develop a computational model based on the internal model theory of motor control. We analyze the proposed model in terms of its convergence properties and fit it to the data collected from human experiments. We compare the performance of the fitted model to the experimental data and show that it captures human motor learning behavior well.
Analog to Digital Converters (ADCs) are a major contributor to the energy consumption on the receiver side of millimeter-wave multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems with large antenna arrays. Consequently, there has been significant interest in using low-resolution ADCs along with hybrid beam-forming at MIMO receivers for energy efficiency. However, decreasing the ADC resolution results in performance loss -- in terms of achievable rates -- due to increased quantization error. In this work, we study the application of practically implementable nonlinear analog operations, prior to sampling and quantization at the ADCs, as a way to mitigate the aforementioned rate-loss. A receiver architecture consisting of linear analog combiners, implementable nonlinear analog operators, and one-bit threshold ADCs is designed. The fundamental information theoretic performance limits of the resulting communication system, in terms of achievable rates, are investigated under various assumptions on the set of implementable nonlinear analog functions. In order to justify the feasibility of the nonlinear operations in the proposed receiver architecture, an analog circuit is introduced, and circuit simulations exhibiting the generation of the desired nonlinear analog operations are provided.
Artificial intelligence (AI) systems, such as machine learning algorithms, have allowed scientists, marketers and governments to shed light on correlations that remained invisible until now. Beforehand, the dots that we had to connect in order to imagine a new knowledge were either too numerous, too sparse or not even detected. Sometimes, the information was not stored in the same data lake or format and was not able to communicate. But in creating new bridges with AI, many problems appeared such as bias reproduction, unfair inferences or mass surveillance. Our aim is to show that, on one hand, the AI's deep ethical problem lays essentially in these new connections made possible by systems interoperability. In connecting the spheres of our life, these systems undermine the notion of justice particular to each of them, because the new interactions create dominances of social goods from a sphere to another. These systems make therefore spheres permeable to one another and, in doing so, they open to progress as well as to tyranny. On another hand, however, we would like to emphasize that the act to connect what used to seem a priori disjoint is a necessary move of knowledge and scientific progress.
We study distributed binary hypothesis testing with a single sensor and two remote decision centers that are also equipped with local sensors. The communication between the sensor and the two decision centers takes place over three links: a shared link to both centers and an individual link to each of the two centers. All communication links are subject to expected rate constraints. This paper characterizes the optimal exponents region of the type-II error for given type-I error thresholds at the two decision centers and further simplifies the expressions in the special case of having only the single shared link. The exponents region illustrates a gain under expected rate constraints compared to equivalent maximum rate constraints. Moreover, it exhibits a tradeoff between the exponents achieved at the two centers.
Energy-Based Models (EBMs) have proven to be a highly effective approach for modelling densities on finite-dimensional spaces. Their ability to incorporate domain-specific choices and constraints into the structure of the model through composition make EBMs an appealing candidate for applications in physics, biology and computer vision and various other fields. In this work, we present a novel class of EBM which is able to learn distributions of functions (such as curves or surfaces) from functional samples evaluated at finitely many points. Two unique challenges arise in the functional context. Firstly, training data is often not evaluated along a fixed set of points. Secondly, steps must be taken to control the behaviour of the model between evaluation points, to mitigate overfitting. The proposed infinite-dimensional EBM employs a latent Gaussian process, which is weighted spectrally by an energy function parameterised with a neural network. The resulting EBM has the ability to utilize irregularly sampled training data and can output predictions at any resolution, providing an effective approach to up-scaling functional data. We demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed approach for modelling a range of datasets, including data collected from Standard and Poor's 500 (S\&P) and UK National grid.
Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) has been widely applied in transportation demand prediction due to its excellent ability to capture non-Euclidean spatial dependence among station-level or regional transportation demands. However, in most of the existing research, the graph convolution was implemented on a heuristically generated adjacency matrix, which could neither reflect the real spatial relationships of stations accurately, nor capture the multi-level spatial dependence of demands adaptively. To cope with the above problems, this paper provides a novel graph convolutional network for transportation demand prediction. Firstly, a novel graph convolution architecture is proposed, which has different adjacency matrices in different layers and all the adjacency matrices are self-learned during the training process. Secondly, a layer-wise coupling mechanism is provided, which associates the upper-level adjacency matrix with the lower-level one. It also reduces the scale of parameters in our model. Lastly, a unitary network is constructed to give the final prediction result by integrating the hidden spatial states with gated recurrent unit, which could capture the multi-level spatial dependence and temporal dynamics simultaneously. Experiments have been conducted on two real-world datasets, NYC Citi Bike and NYC Taxi, and the results demonstrate the superiority of our model over the state-of-the-art ones.
Model quantization is a widely used technique to compress and accelerate deep neural network (DNN) inference. Emergent DNN hardware accelerators begin to support flexible bitwidth (1-8 bits) to further improve the computation efficiency, which raises a great challenge to find the optimal bitwidth for each layer: it requires domain experts to explore the vast design space trading off among accuracy, latency, power, and model size, which is both time-consuming and sub-optimal. Conventional quantization algorithm ignores the different hardware architectures and quantizes all the layers in an uniform way. In this paper, we introduce the Hardware-Aware Automated Quantization (HAQ) framework which leverages the reinforcement learning to automatically determine the quantization policy, and we take the hardware accelerator's feedback in the design loop. Rather than relying on proxy signals such as FLOPs and model size, we employ a hardware simulator to generate direct feedback signals to the RL agent. Compared with conventional methods, our framework is fully automated and can specialize the quantization policy for different neural network architectures and hardware architectures. Our framework effectively reduced the latency by 1.4-1.95x and the energy consumption by 1.9x with negligible loss of accuracy compared with the fixed bitwidth (8 bits) quantization. Our framework reveals that the optimal policies on different hardware architectures (i.e., edge and cloud architectures) under different resource constraints (i.e., latency, power and model size) are drastically different. We interpreted the implication of different quantization policies, which offer insights for both neural network architecture design and hardware architecture design.
Machine Learning models become increasingly proficient in complex tasks. However, even for experts in the field, it can be difficult to understand what the model learned. This hampers trust and acceptance, and it obstructs the possibility to correct the model. There is therefore a need for transparency of machine learning models. The development of transparent classification models has received much attention, but there are few developments for achieving transparent Reinforcement Learning (RL) models. In this study we propose a method that enables a RL agent to explain its behavior in terms of the expected consequences of state transitions and outcomes. First, we define a translation of states and actions to a description that is easier to understand for human users. Second, we developed a procedure that enables the agent to obtain the consequences of a single action, as well as its entire policy. The method calculates contrasts between the consequences of a policy derived from a user query, and of the learned policy of the agent. Third, a format for generating explanations was constructed. A pilot survey study was conducted to explore preferences of users for different explanation properties. Results indicate that human users tend to favor explanations about policy rather than about single actions.
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