Mapping political party systems to metric policy spaces is one of the major methodological problems in political science. At present, in most political science project this task is performed by domain experts relying on purely qualitative assessments, with all the attendant problems of subjectivity and labor intensiveness. We consider how advances in natural language processing, including large transformer-based language models, can be applied to solve that issue. We apply a number of texts similarity measures to party political programs, analyze how they correlate with each other, and -- in the absence of a satisfactory benchmark -- evaluate them against other measures, including those based on expert surveys, voting records, electoral patterns, and candidate networks. Finally, we consider the prospects of relying on those methods to correct, supplement, and eventually replace expert judgments.
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When faced with a large number of product reviews, it is not clear that a human can remember all of them and weight opinions representatively to write a good reference summary. We propose an automatic metric to test the prevalence of the opinions that a summary expresses, based on counting the number of reviews that are consistent with each statement in the summary, while discrediting trivial or redundant statements. To formulate this opinion prevalence metric, we consider several existing methods to score the factual consistency of a summary statement with respect to each individual source review. On a corpus of Amazon product reviews, we gather multiple human judgments of the opinion consistency, to determine which automatic metric best expresses consistency in product reviews. Using the resulting opinion prevalence metric, we show that a human authored summary has only slightly better opinion prevalence than randomly selected extracts from the source reviews, and previous extractive and abstractive unsupervised opinion summarization methods perform worse than humans. We demonstrate room for improvement with a greedy construction of extractive summaries with twice the opinion prevalence achieved by humans. Finally, we show that preprocessing source reviews by simplification can raise the opinion prevalence achieved by existing abstractive opinion summarization systems to the level of human performance.
One of the main tasks of actuaries and data scientists is to build good predictive models for certain phenomena such as the claim size or the number of claims in insurance. These models ideally exploit given feature information to enhance the accuracy of prediction. This user guide revisits and clarifies statistical techniques to assess the calibration or adequacy of a model on the one hand, and to compare and rank different models on the other hand. In doing so, it emphasises the importance of specifying the prediction target functional at hand a priori (e.g. the mean or a quantile) and of choosing the scoring function in model comparison in line with this target functional. Guidance for the practical choice of the scoring function is provided. Striving to bridge the gap between science and daily practice in application, it focuses mainly on the pedagogical presentation of existing results and of best practice. The results are accompanied and illustrated by two real data case studies on workers' compensation and customer churn.
Gaussian graphical models are nowadays commonly applied to the comparison of groups sharing the same variables, by jointy learning their independence structures. We consider the case where there are exactly two dependent groups and the association structure is represented by a family of coloured Gaussian graphical models suited to deal with paired data problems. To learn the two dependent graphs, together with their across-graph association structure, we implement a fused graphical lasso penalty. We carry out a comprehensive analysis of this approach, with special attention to the role played by some relevant submodel classes. In this way, we provide a broad set of tools for the application of Gaussian graphical models to paired data problems. These include results useful for the specification of penalty values in order to obtain a path of lasso solutions and an ADMM algorithm that solves the fused graphical lasso optimization problem. Finally, we present an application of our method to cancer genomics where it is of interest to compare cancer cells with a control sample from histologically normal tissues adjacent to the tumor. All the methods described in this article are implemented in the $\texttt{R}$ package $\texttt{pdglasso}$ availabe at: //github.com/savranciati/pdglasso.
Graph Neural Networks have emerged as an effective machine learning tool for multi-disciplinary tasks such as pharmaceutical molecule classification and chemical reaction prediction, because they can model non-euclidean relationships between different entities. Particle crushing, as a significant field of civil engineering, describes the breakage of granular materials caused by the breakage of particle fragment bonds under the modeling of numerical simulations, which motivates us to characterize the mechanical behaviors of particle crushing through the connectivity of particle fragments with Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). However, there lacks an open-source large-scale particle crushing dataset for research due to the expensive costs of laboratory tests or numerical simulations. Therefore, we firstly generate a dataset with 45,000 numerical simulations and 900 particle types to facilitate the research progress of machine learning for particle crushing. Secondly, we devise a hybrid framework based on GNNs to predict particle crushing strength in a particle fragment view with the advances of state of the art GNNs. Finally, we compare our hybrid framework against traditional machine learning methods and the plain MLP to verify its effectiveness. The usefulness of different features is further discussed through the gradient attribution explanation w.r.t the predictions. Our data and code are released at //github.com/doujiang-zheng/GNN-For-Particle-Crushing.
Deep learning has become a popular tool for medical image analysis, but the limited availability of training data remains a major challenge, particularly in the medical field where data acquisition can be costly and subject to privacy regulations. Data augmentation techniques offer a solution by artificially increasing the number of training samples, but these techniques often produce limited and unconvincing results. To address this issue, a growing number of studies have proposed the use of deep generative models to generate more realistic and diverse data that conform to the true distribution of the data. In this review, we focus on three types of deep generative models for medical image augmentation: variational autoencoders, generative adversarial networks, and diffusion models. We provide an overview of the current state of the art in each of these models and discuss their potential for use in different downstream tasks in medical imaging, including classification, segmentation, and cross-modal translation. We also evaluate the strengths and limitations of each model and suggest directions for future research in this field. Our goal is to provide a comprehensive review about the use of deep generative models for medical image augmentation and to highlight the potential of these models for improving the performance of deep learning algorithms in medical image analysis.
In inverse problems, one attempts to infer spatially variable functions from indirect measurements of a system. To practitioners of inverse problems, the concept of "information" is familiar when discussing key questions such as which parts of the function can be inferred accurately and which cannot. For example, it is generally understood that we can identify system parameters accurately only close to detectors, or along ray paths between sources and detectors, because we have "the most information" for these places. Although referenced in many publications, the "information" that is invoked in such contexts is not a well understood and clearly defined quantity. Herein, we present a definition of information density that is based on the variance of coefficients as derived from a Bayesian reformulation of the inverse problem. We then discuss three areas in which this information density can be useful in practical algorithms for the solution of inverse problems, and illustrate the usefulness in one of these areas -- how to choose the discretization mesh for the function to be reconstructed -- using numerical experiments.
Prognostics and health management (PHM) technology plays a critical role in industrial production and equipment maintenance by identifying and predicting possible equipment failures and damages, thereby allowing necessary maintenance measures to be taken to enhance equipment service life and reliability while reducing production costs and downtime. In recent years, PHM technology based on artificial intelligence (AI) has made remarkable achievements in the context of the industrial IoT and big data, and it is widely used in various industries, such as railway, energy, and aviation, for condition monitoring, fault prediction, and health management. The emergence of large-scale foundation models (LSF-Models) such as ChatGPT and DALLE-E marks the entry of AI into a new era of AI-2.0 from AI-1.0, where deep models have rapidly evolved from a research paradigm of single-modal, single-task, and limited-data to a multi-modal, multi-task, massive data, and super-large model paradigm. ChatGPT represents a landmark achievement in this research paradigm, offering hope for general artificial intelligence due to its highly intelligent natural language understanding ability. However, the PHM field lacks a consensus on how to respond to this significant change in the AI field, and a systematic review and roadmap is required to elucidate future development directions. To fill this gap, this paper systematically expounds on the key components and latest developments of LSF-Models. Then, we systematically answered how to build the LSF-Model applicable to PHM tasks and outlined the challenges and future development roadmaps for this research paradigm.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a part of everyday conversation and our lives. It is considered as the new electricity that is revolutionizing the world. AI is heavily invested in both industry and academy. However, there is also a lot of hype in the current AI debate. AI based on so-called deep learning has achieved impressive results in many problems, but its limits are already visible. AI has been under research since the 1940s, and the industry has seen many ups and downs due to over-expectations and related disappointments that have followed. The purpose of this book is to give a realistic picture of AI, its history, its potential and limitations. We believe that AI is a helper, not a ruler of humans. We begin by describing what AI is and how it has evolved over the decades. After fundamentals, we explain the importance of massive data for the current mainstream of artificial intelligence. The most common representations for AI, methods, and machine learning are covered. In addition, the main application areas are introduced. Computer vision has been central to the development of AI. The book provides a general introduction to computer vision, and includes an exposure to the results and applications of our own research. Emotions are central to human intelligence, but little use has been made in AI. We present the basics of emotional intelligence and our own research on the topic. We discuss super-intelligence that transcends human understanding, explaining why such achievement seems impossible on the basis of present knowledge,and how AI could be improved. Finally, a summary is made of the current state of AI and what to do in the future. In the appendix, we look at the development of AI education, especially from the perspective of contents at our own university.
This work considers the question of how convenient access to copious data impacts our ability to learn causal effects and relations. In what ways is learning causality in the era of big data different from -- or the same as -- the traditional one? To answer this question, this survey provides a comprehensive and structured review of both traditional and frontier methods in learning causality and relations along with the connections between causality and machine learning. This work points out on a case-by-case basis how big data facilitates, complicates, or motivates each approach.
Graphical causal inference as pioneered by Judea Pearl arose from research on artificial intelligence (AI), and for a long time had little connection to the field of machine learning. This article discusses where links have been and should be established, introducing key concepts along the way. It argues that the hard open problems of machine learning and AI are intrinsically related to causality, and explains how the field is beginning to understand them.
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