Widespread adoption of AI for medical decision making is still hindered due to ethical and safety-related concerns. For AI-based decision support systems in healthcare settings it is paramount to be reliable and trustworthy. Common deep learning approaches, however, have the tendency towards overconfidence under data shift. Such inappropriate extrapolation beyond evidence-based scenarios may have dire consequences. This highlights the importance of reliable estimation of local uncertainty and its communication to the end user. While stochastic neural networks have been heralded as a potential solution to these issues, this study investigates their actual reliability in clinical applications. We centered our analysis on the exemplary use case of mortality prediction for ICU hospitalizations using EHR from MIMIC3 study. For predictions on the EHR time series, Encoder-Only Transformer models were employed. Stochasticity of model functions was achieved by incorporating common methods such as Bayesian neural network layers and model ensembles. Our models achieve state of the art performance in terms of discrimination performance (AUC ROC: 0.868+-0.011, AUC PR: 0.554+-0.034) and calibration on the mortality prediction benchmark. However, epistemic uncertainty is critically underestimated by the selected stochastic deep learning methods. A heuristic proof for the responsible collapse of the posterior distribution is provided. Our findings reveal the inadequacy of commonly used stochastic deep learning approaches to reliably recognize OoD samples. In both methods, unsubstantiated model confidence is not prevented due to strongly biased functional posteriors, rendering them inappropriate for reliable clinical decision support. This highlights the need for approaches with more strictly enforced or inherent distance-awareness to known data points, e.g., using kernel-based techniques.
相關內容
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are the predominant architectures for a variety of learning tasks on graphs. We present a new angle on the expressive power of GNNs by studying how the predictions of a GNN probabilistic classifier evolve as we apply it on larger graphs drawn from some random graph model. We show that the output converges to a constant function, which upper-bounds what these classifiers can express uniformly. This convergence phenomenon applies to a very wide class of GNNs, including state of the art models, with aggregates including mean and the attention-based mechanism of graph transformers. Our results apply to a broad class of random graph models, including the (sparse) Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi model and the stochastic block model. We empirically validate these findings, observing that the convergence phenomenon already manifests itself on graphs of relatively modest size.
Under interference, the potential outcomes of a unit depend on treatments assigned to other units. A network interference structure is typically assumed to be given and accurate. In this paper, we study the problems resulting from misspecifying these networks. First, we derive bounds on the bias arising from estimating causal effects under a misspecified network. We show that the maximal possible bias depends on the divergence between the assumed network and the true one with respect to the induced exposure probabilities. Then, we propose a novel estimator that leverages multiple networks simultaneously and is unbiased if one of the networks is correct, thus providing robustness to network specification. Additionally, we develop a probabilistic bias analysis that quantifies the impact of a postulated misspecification mechanism on the causal estimates. We illustrate key issues in simulations and demonstrate the utility of the proposed methods in a social network field experiment and a cluster-randomized trial with suspected cross-clusters contamination.
A theory of martingales for censoring is developed. The Doob-Meyer martingale is shown to be inadequate in general, and a repaired martingale is proposed with a non-predictable centering term. Associated martingale transforms, variation processes, and covariation processes are developed based on a measure of half-predictability that generalizes predictability. The development is applied to study the Kaplan Meier estimator.
Current deep neural networks (DNNs) are overparameterized and use most of their neuronal connections during inference for each task. The human brain, however, developed specialized regions for different tasks and performs inference with a small fraction of its neuronal connections. We propose an iterative pruning strategy introducing a simple importance-score metric that deactivates unimportant connections, tackling overparameterization in DNNs and modulating the firing patterns. The aim is to find the smallest number of connections that is still capable of solving a given task with comparable accuracy, i.e. a simpler subnetwork. We achieve comparable performance for LeNet architectures on MNIST, and significantly higher parameter compression than state-of-the-art algorithms for VGG and ResNet architectures on CIFAR-10/100 and Tiny-ImageNet. Our approach also performs well for the two different optimizers considered -- Adam and SGD. The algorithm is not designed to minimize FLOPs when considering current hardware and software implementations, although it performs reasonably when compared to the state of the art.
Approximation capability of reservoir systems whose reservoir is a recurrent neural network (RNN) is discussed. In our problem setting, a reservoir system approximates a set of functions just by adjusting its linear readout while the reservoir is fixed. We will show what we call uniform strong universality of a family of RNN reservoir systems for a certain class of functions to be approximated. This means that, for any positive number, we can construct a sufficiently large RNN reservoir system whose approximation error for each function in the class of functions to be approximated is bounded from above by the positive number. Such RNN reservoir systems are constructed via parallel concatenation of RNN reservoirs.
Residual neural networks are state-of-the-art deep learning models. Their continuous-depth analog, neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs), are also widely used. Despite their success, the link between the discrete and continuous models still lacks a solid mathematical foundation. In this article, we take a step in this direction by establishing an implicit regularization of deep residual networks towards neural ODEs, for nonlinear networks trained with gradient flow. We prove that if the network is initialized as a discretization of a neural ODE, then such a discretization holds throughout training. Our results are valid for a finite training time, and also as the training time tends to infinity provided that the network satisfies a Polyak-Lojasiewicz condition. Importantly, this condition holds for a family of residual networks where the residuals are two-layer perceptrons with an overparameterization in width that is only linear, and implies the convergence of gradient flow to a global minimum. Numerical experiments illustrate our results.
This study aims to investigate the influence of cross-border recruitment program in China, which confers scientists with a 'talent hat' including a startup package comprising significant bonuses, pay, and funding, on their future performance and career development. By curating a unique dataset from China's 10-year talent recruitment program, we employed multiple matching designs to quantify the effects of the cross-border recruitment with 'talent hat' on early career STEM scholars. Our findings indicate that the cross-border talents perform better than their comparable contenders who move without talent hats and those who do not move, given equivalent scientific performance before relocation. Moreover, we observed that scholars in experimental fields derive greater benefits from the talent program than those in non-experimental fields. Finally, we investigated how the changes in scientific environment of scientists affect their future performance. We found that talents who reassembled their collaboration network with new collaborators in new institutions after job replacement experienced significant improvements in their academic performance. However, shifting research directions entails risks, which results in a subsequent decrease of future productivity and citation impact following the relocation. This study has significant implications for young scientists, research institutions, and governments concerning cultivating cross-border talents.
A key requirement for the success of supervised deep learning is a large labeled dataset - a condition that is difficult to meet in medical image analysis. Self-supervised learning (SSL) can help in this regard by providing a strategy to pre-train a neural network with unlabeled data, followed by fine-tuning for a downstream task with limited annotations. Contrastive learning, a particular variant of SSL, is a powerful technique for learning image-level representations. In this work, we propose strategies for extending the contrastive learning framework for segmentation of volumetric medical images in the semi-supervised setting with limited annotations, by leveraging domain-specific and problem-specific cues. Specifically, we propose (1) novel contrasting strategies that leverage structural similarity across volumetric medical images (domain-specific cue) and (2) a local version of the contrastive loss to learn distinctive representations of local regions that are useful for per-pixel segmentation (problem-specific cue). We carry out an extensive evaluation on three Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) datasets. In the limited annotation setting, the proposed method yields substantial improvements compared to other self-supervision and semi-supervised learning techniques. When combined with a simple data augmentation technique, the proposed method reaches within 8% of benchmark performance using only two labeled MRI volumes for training, corresponding to only 4% (for ACDC) of the training data used to train the benchmark.
Breast cancer remains a global challenge, causing over 1 million deaths globally in 2018. To achieve earlier breast cancer detection, screening x-ray mammography is recommended by health organizations worldwide and has been estimated to decrease breast cancer mortality by 20-40%. Nevertheless, significant false positive and false negative rates, as well as high interpretation costs, leave opportunities for improving quality and access. To address these limitations, there has been much recent interest in applying deep learning to mammography; however, obtaining large amounts of annotated data poses a challenge for training deep learning models for this purpose, as does ensuring generalization beyond the populations represented in the training dataset. Here, we present an annotation-efficient deep learning approach that 1) achieves state-of-the-art performance in mammogram classification, 2) successfully extends to digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT; "3D mammography"), 3) detects cancers in clinically-negative prior mammograms of cancer patients, 4) generalizes well to a population with low screening rates, and 5) outperforms five-out-of-five full-time breast imaging specialists by improving absolute sensitivity by an average of 14%. Our results demonstrate promise towards software that can improve the accuracy of and access to screening mammography worldwide.
Recent advances in 3D fully convolutional networks (FCN) have made it feasible to produce dense voxel-wise predictions of volumetric images. In this work, we show that a multi-class 3D FCN trained on manually labeled CT scans of several anatomical structures (ranging from the large organs to thin vessels) can achieve competitive segmentation results, while avoiding the need for handcrafting features or training class-specific models. To this end, we propose a two-stage, coarse-to-fine approach that will first use a 3D FCN to roughly define a candidate region, which will then be used as input to a second 3D FCN. This reduces the number of voxels the second FCN has to classify to ~10% and allows it to focus on more detailed segmentation of the organs and vessels. We utilize training and validation sets consisting of 331 clinical CT images and test our models on a completely unseen data collection acquired at a different hospital that includes 150 CT scans, targeting three anatomical organs (liver, spleen, and pancreas). In challenging organs such as the pancreas, our cascaded approach improves the mean Dice score from 68.5 to 82.2%, achieving the highest reported average score on this dataset. We compare with a 2D FCN method on a separate dataset of 240 CT scans with 18 classes and achieve a significantly higher performance in small organs and vessels. Furthermore, we explore fine-tuning our models to different datasets. Our experiments illustrate the promise and robustness of current 3D FCN based semantic segmentation of medical images, achieving state-of-the-art results. Our code and trained models are available for download: //github.com/holgerroth/3Dunet_abdomen_cascade.
小貼士
登錄享
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191